WPAC: INVEST 91W

[Meow]

Near Sansha.

[dexterlabio]

so it has formed, finally...

[Meow]

so it has formed, finally...

This system has been monitored by the JMA as a low-pressure area for many days.

[dexterlabio]

^yes it was on JMA's weather map for days and i was waiting for JTWC to follow by declaring it an invest...


Euro has been consistently showing this as a weak system being dragged by Sanba across Luzon, and their latest run shows it passing north of the capital, maybe as a weak depression.

[Meow]

^yes it was on JMA's weather map for days and i was waiting for JTWC to follow by declaring it an invest...

Euro has been consistently showing this as a weak system being dragged by Sanba across Luzon, and their latest run shows it passing north of the capital, maybe as a weak depression.

I doubt 91W will become Jelawat, as Sanba is now very strong.

[dexterlabio]

I doubt 91W will become Jelawat, as Sanba is now very strong.

Agreed. As long as Sanba lingers nearby, the developing circulation of this disturbance will keep on getting disrupted...but I won't be surprised if it develops to a weak tropical depression in SCS, but being a TS is unlikely IMO. Though again, there will be some chances for 91W to become Jelawat if it managed to hold itself together and develop once it's in Philippine Sea...Sanba is forecast to be well away from PI then...

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[mrbagyo]

^yes it was on JMA's weather map for days and i was waiting for JTWC to follow by declaring it an invest...


Euro has been consistently showing this as a weak system being dragged by Sanba across Luzon, and their latest run shows it passing north of the capital, maybe as a weak depression.

If it pass just north of Manila, Manila will get another round of sea surges, since it will be exposed to the right semicircle ( if ever this develops in to something).
Now imagine this scenario, hope this would not happen(the worst case scenario), what if a storm intensify into a major typhoon in the West Philippine Sea/ South china Sea, then re-curve and direct hit Manila big time at the height of the southwest monsoon with matching high tide , the most likely result... storm surge will reverse the flow of Pasig river pushing it inward, torrential rain will also add significantly to the flooding, wind damage will be horrendous, the damage will surely be catastrophic just like Katrina did in New Orleans. even though the chance of this happening is relatively small, there is always that possibility , so never ever underestimate a storm that form in that area because it may suddenly become a killer...remember the invest pulled by Saola... its just an invest

[dexterlabio]

Near Sansha.

by the way, where is Sansha?

[mrbagyo]

Near Sansha.

by the way, where is Sansha?

looks like a disputed island in the West Philippine Sea/ South China Sea ( whatever you want to call it)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sansha

[dexterlabio]

If it pass just north of Manila, Manila will get another round of sea surges, since it will be exposed to the right semicircle ( if ever this develops in to something).
Now imagine this scenario, hope this would not happen(the worst case scenario), what if a storm intensify into a major typhoon in the West Philippine Sea/ South china Sea, then re-curve and direct hit Manila big time at the height of the southwest monsoon with matching high tide , the most likely result... storm surge will reverse the flow of Pasig river pushing it inward, torrential rain will also add significantly to the flooding, wind damage will be horrendous, the damage will surely be catastrophic just like Katrina did in New Orleans. even though the chance of this happening is relatively small, there is always that possibility , so never ever underestimate a storm that form in that area because it may suddenly become a killer...remember the invest pulled by Saola... its just an invest

agreed. whether this becomes a weak storm, depression or mere invest, it will bring heavy rainfall over PI. winds were not really a big issue in Manila from tropical cyclones but the rains and ensuing floods...plus the surge as the monsoon is still active...

regarding the major system hitting Manila from the west...never heard of that kind of instance in the past but that surely is a bad scenario for Manila if ever happens.

[euro6208]

hmm.... euro actually develops this BUT in the philippine sea then up north passing okinawa to the east and hitting near tokyo as a moderate tropical storm...

[dexterlabio]

Euro 12z doesn't develop this into a TC in the Philippine Sea anymore...it dies out right away after hitting PI, and that seems reasonable for me. Actually I now think any development of this disturbance will be very, very limited given the outflow coming from the monstrous Sanba which will disrupt its circulation, and the proximity...

[euro6208]

the philippines must be getting alot of rain from this system...thankfully it isn't a tropical cyclone...

[Meow]

the philippines must be getting alot of rain from this system...thankfully it isn't a tropical cyclone...

It is dead.