EPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2012 6:39 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209132307
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012091318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912012
EP, 91, 2012091300, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1139W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2012091306, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1150W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2012091312, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1160W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2012091318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1173W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,


Thread that was the topic of this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113699&p=2275851#p2275851

Up to 40%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#2 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 6:47 pm

30% increase in 6 hours. May develop soon. ← Not official.
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#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:20 pm

Not sure how much time this system has though.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:48 pm

00z Best Track.

EP, 91, 2012091400, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1182W, 30, 1008, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 14, 2012 12:47 pm

11 AM PDT TWO:

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.
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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:22 pm

I'm still ehh on this forming.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 14, 2012 6:37 pm

Up to 60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
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#8 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:36 am

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
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#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:38 am

If it can manage to delay strengthening for another day or so it may miss the weakness.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 6:44 am

Up to 90%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:40 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep912012_ep122012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209151235
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:49 am

Welcome 12-E.
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:52 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 123.5W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9
KM/H...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION...AND MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW THAT THERE IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ON THIS BASIS...
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAVE BEEN INITIATED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE
VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO
BE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO ABATE...AND WHILE THE DEPRESSION
IS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING. IN
ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...IT
SHOULD BECOME STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.1N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 15.3N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 16.4N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:03 am

I'd be surprised to see this become a hurricane.
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#15 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:06 am

Latest visible image of TD 12-E

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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:39 pm

18z Best Track up to Tropical Storm Lane.

EP, 12, 2012091518, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1235W, 35, 1003, TS
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#17 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 15, 2012 2:13 pm

Welcome, Lane!
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LANE FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 123.7W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS. THERE
IS NOTHING APPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD IMPEDE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE CIRCULATION
WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH STATISTICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS.

THE CENTER EITHER REFORMED WITHIN THE CONVECTION OR THE PREVIOUS
LOCATION WAS TOO FAR NORTH...MOST LIKELY IT IS A COMBINATION OF
BOTH. TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT STEERING
PATTERN...LANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST LATER TONIGHT
AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY MOVES LANE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE LANE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 12.8N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 12.8N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 13.7N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.8N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z 19.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:49 pm

Any of you think Lane can become a hurricane?
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#20 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:15 pm

Well if Kristy can intensify over 25C waters then the sky is the limit for Lane!
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