EPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2012 5:44 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012

LANE STOPPED PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
AND IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A BLEND
OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW
OVER 21-22C WATER...AND LANE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW SHOULD BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY 48
HOURS...ALTHOUGH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD
OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8. LANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-
LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 20.8N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 21.1N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0600Z 21.0N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1800Z 20.8N 135.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2012 11:52 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012

LANE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS
NOW...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW. BASED ON A 19/0546 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE WEST
SIDE OF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION TO WITHIN 25 N MI OF THE
CENTER...SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN EXTENSIVE FIELD
OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND REMAINS OVER SUB-22C SSTS.

THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 280/5. THE VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC TRACK GUIDANCE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 20.9N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 20/0000Z 21.0N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1200Z 20.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z 20.8N 135.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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