EPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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#21 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:37 pm

Tropical Storm Lane

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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:56 pm

00z Best Track remains at 35kts.

EP, 12, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1238W, 35, 1003, TS
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:52 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...LANE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 124.1W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTER OF LANE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL
WIND SPEED OF 35 KT...ALTHOUGH THE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A
BIT HIGHER. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM SEEMS
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...LANE SHOULD CROSS A SHARP
SST GRADIENT AND QUICKLY WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 36-48H...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF/GFDL
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...NOW SHOW LANE REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING
WESTWARD...OR 280/6. A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS LANE MOVES AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TAKE A
SHARP WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM MORE DOMINATED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT...ALTHOUGH THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS STILL LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 13.3N 124.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 13.7N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.5N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 15.6N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 16.9N 128.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 19.3N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 20.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#24 Postby greenkat » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:06 pm

That'd be good to have a hurricane. It'd be a (small) boost to the ACE. 8-)
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#25 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:20 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...LANE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 124.5W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

LANE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A BALL OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION
TONIGHT...BUT IS LARGELY ABSENT SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURES.
WHILE A 0506 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS...MICROWAVE IMAGES WOULD PLACE
THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE EDGE. SATELLLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
INCREASED TO A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS WERE PRESENT IN THE
EARLIER ASCAT PASS...AND BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MICROWAVE AND ASCAT CENTER FIXES MAKES THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE RATHER UNCERTAIN. A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES SUGGESTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OF 280/06. LANE IS
NEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH HAS BEEN ERODED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 34N 137W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LANE QUICKLY
GAINING LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THIS CUT-OFF FEATURE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE
TRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE WEST AS LANE WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY
BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS...ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

LANE HAS A LIMITED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE WATERS WARM FOR ANOTHER 36-48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CAUSE IT TO REACH A SHARP BOUNDARY OF SSTS. SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72 HR
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED HIGHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AFTER THAT
TIME...IT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 13.3N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.0N 125.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 14.9N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.2N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.8N 128.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 20.0N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 20.0N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z 19.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:03 am

Lane intensifying fast.
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2012 2:12 pm

18z Best Track at 55kts.

EP, 12, 2012091618, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1253W, 55, 997, TS
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DEVELOPING
SMALL DENSE OVERCAST. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
55 KT...AND COINCIDES WITH THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR LANE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...AND THIS SHOULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE
RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE
SHIPS MODEL AND THE LGEM...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE IVCN
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/7. LANE IS MOVING WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON
THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...LANE
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AS A REMNANT
LOW IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS
BASED ON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.4N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 15.3N 126.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 16.7N 127.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.3N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 19.7N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 20.7N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 20.2N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:42 pm

Almost a hurricane

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
A MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE ON
THE LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A SMALL
INNER CORE WITH PERHAPS A PINHOLE EYE FORMING. WHILE THE
SUBJECTIVE-BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...MICROWAVE-BASED
ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE
INCREASED TO 60 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
24H OR SO WHILE LANE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LOW SHEAR. AFTER
THAT TIME...FAIRLY STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO A SHARP
DECLINE IN SSTS AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. LANE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN
DAYS 2-3 DUE TO COLD WATERS BELOW 23C.

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE POSITIONS GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8.
THIS GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE LANE
IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48H AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE NORTH OF LANE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A SMALL AMOUNT EASTWARD THROUGH
72H....BUT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 15.0N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.0N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.7N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 19.2N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 20.3N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.7N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Almost a hurricane

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
A MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE ON
THE LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A SMALL
INNER CORE WITH PERHAPS A PINHOLE EYE FORMING. WHILE THE
SUBJECTIVE-BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...MICROWAVE-BASED
ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE
INCREASED TO 60 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
24H OR SO WHILE LANE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LOW SHEAR. AFTER
THAT TIME...FAIRLY STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO A SHARP
DECLINE IN SSTS AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. LANE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN
DAYS 2-3 DUE TO COLD WATERS BELOW 23C.

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE POSITIONS GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8.
THIS GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE LANE
IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48H AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE NORTH OF LANE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A SMALL AMOUNT EASTWARD THROUGH
72H....BUT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 15.0N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.0N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.7N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 19.2N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 20.3N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.7N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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Re: EPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 17, 2012 5:19 am

TCDEP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE HAS EVOLVED INTO A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER FULLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO INCREASED IN
ORGANIZATION SINCE LATE YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED
TO A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THE BASIS OF THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 65 KT. LANE IS
APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH LIMITS THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE COLDER WATERS AND A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS SHOULD HASTEN
WEAKENING...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH FSSE/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT.

RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE HEADING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/08. LANE
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 130W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SHARPLY TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST AS LANE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. BASED LARGELY ON THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL MOTION...THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 15.9N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 20.0N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 20.7N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 20.9N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 20.0N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:06 am

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

AN EYE WAS APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 1200 UTC...BUT
HAS SINCE BEEN OBSCURED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS ASSUMED
THAT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO LANE WILL BE OVER WATERS
SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO ALLOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...
IN 24 HOURS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COOL TO LESS THAN 24 DEG C...SO STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE BEGUN
BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. LANE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.

LANE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF ABOUT 330/9. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LANE SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE LATTER PART. THIS IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.7N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.9N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 19.4N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 20.7N 129.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 21.4N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 17, 2012 3:37 pm

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...AND
A NARROW RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY ENCIRCLES THE
SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND RECENT NHC AODT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.3/73 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE VALUES
SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08 KT. HURRICANE LANE IS ON TRACK
AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING. LANE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE. AFTERWARD...THE
SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.

LANE HAS LIKELY PEAKED OR WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26C SSTS...AND WILL BE MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A COOLER...DRIER...AND
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE STEADY
WEAKENING BEGINNING BY THE 12-HOUR FORECAST TIME...AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 48 HOURS...
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR
30 KT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LANE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.6N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 18.8N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 20.2N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 21.2N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 21.6N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 21.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z 19.9N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 17, 2012 9:44 pm

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE IN THE
EYEWALL OF LANE...ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED. MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWS THAT THE MID-LEVEL EYE IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AN INDICATION THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY THE SAME AS 6 HR AGO...SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 70 KT. LANE SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
RATHER COLD WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE LANE TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/9. LANE SHOULD TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE REMNANTS OF LANE SHOULD MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 19.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 20.6N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.3N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 21.4N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2012 5:17 am

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012


A FEW HOURS AGO...SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED AN EYE
FEATURE. SINCE THAT TIME...CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AND DEEP CONVECTON IS
GRADUALLY DECREASING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE
INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER
COOL WATERS...AND THE SHEAR IS INCREASING. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS
OR EARLIER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS LANE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A
SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT WILL MOST LIKELY TURN TO THE WEST STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 19.3N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 20.3N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 21.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z 20.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:44 am

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE
SOUTH...IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER EASIER. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT...THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCTION IN THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT LANE RECENTLY SHOWED AN EYE
FEATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. LANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE
NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS IT POLEWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING ENSUES. BY
24 HOURS...THE SHALLOW VORTEX OF A SEVERELY WEAKENED LANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM TV15.

STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS LANE MOVES OVER SHARPLY COOLER SSTS OF LESS THAN 22C...
AND ALSO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
MORE THAN 25 KT. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER FOR
BOTH SCENARIOS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 20.1N 127.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 20.9N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.5N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#37 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 18, 2012 11:52 am

Latest

Image
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE WHEELS ARE QUICKLY COMING OFF NOW THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND
THE SYSTEM BARELY MEETS THE CONVECTIVE CRITERION FOR CLASSIFICATION
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A RESULT. THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF
RAPID WEAKENING AS IT INGESTS COOL...STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST AND
SOUTH...AND ALSO MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS...WHICH SOON MAKE LANE JUST A FADED MEMORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/7. WHAT APPEARED TO BE A
SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ACTUALLY JUST
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHEARING AWAY...AND THOSE FEATURES
ARE NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOME
RESIDUAL CONVECTION...AND LANE SHOULD BECOME A MORE SHALLOW VORTEX
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT IS STEERED WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HFIP TV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 20.6N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 21.1N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 21.4N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 21.4N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 21.2N 134.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 20.8N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:58 pm

Lane is almost gone.
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Re: EPAC: LANE - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:41 pm

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE LITTLE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. A QUICK DEMISE TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED BY
24 HOURS AS LANE MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE REMNANT LOW
SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DECAYING VORTEX WILL BE
STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 20.8N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 21.1N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 21.2N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 134.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 20.7N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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