ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ROCK]

well I wanted to put it at 13N and 50W...but those clouds are warming.....the best track area 13N 55W just started firing some convection...that looks more like a MLC than something at the surface. The area below it could be ITCZ related....

[blp]

well I wanted to put it at 13N and 50W...but those clouds are warming.....the best track area 13N 55W just started firing some convection...that looks more like a MLC than something at the surface. The area below it could be ITCZ related....

That's were I am seeing it. Had to use IR2 for a better look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/swir-animated.gif

[cycloneye]

The 00z Surface Analysis made by TAFB.

[Anthysteg00]

My predictions so. Far have been spot on! I think orange by 8 a.m.

[fci]

Notice the change in wording by the NHc? How is this a western Gomez storm threat at all? Lol

What's a western Gomez storm? Lol

Western Gulf of Mexico storm.
WAY too early to conject that but when people see something that might move into the Carib. and could make it to the warm western Carib; it becomes a thought to the all of the people in the Gulf of Mexico, Jamaica and South Florida.
Just watch and see what happens...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH
AND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[wxman57]

Note that the jet stream dips down into the Gulf in a few days and stays there for most of the next 10-14 days. With SW-WSW winds 40-60 kts across the Gulf, anything moving toward the NW Caribbean gets accelerated NE as per Wilma. No threat to NW Gulf indicated.

[jlauderdal]

Note that the jet stream dips down into the Gulf in a few days and stays there for most of the next 10-14 days. With SW-WSW winds 40-60 kts across the Gulf, anything moving toward the NW Caribbean gets accelerated NE as per Wilma. No threat to NW Gulf indicated.

euro depicts this setup very well...system gets pulled north then destroyed by the flow

[northjaxpro]

Per NHC TWD at 8:05 a.m.

92L surface LLC analyzed approximately 13.0 N 55.0 W


Excerpt:

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 18N56W TO
11N54W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE WAVE AT 13N55W. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF
MAXIMUM MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 56W-60W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHORTLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH AND MONDAY.

[wxman57]

Conditions in its path are far from favorable for development - much less favorable than in August when previous systems struggled. And the Caribbean is becoming even more stable now, on par with typical instability seen pre-season:



Development chances look very low. Tropics showing all the signs of shutting down for the season.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Wxman57, I respectfully disagree. Conditions should be favorable in 2-3 days time. I give 92L a 70% chance of becoming a hurricane.

[LarryWx]

Conditions in its path are far from favorable for development - much less favorable than in August when previous systems struggled. And the Caribbean is becoming even more stable now, on par with typical instability seen pre-season:

Development chances look very low. Tropics showing all the signs of shutting down for the season.

The CONUS is just about as protected/safe from sig. tropical cyclone impacts as it can be for late Sep. due to the upcoming strong +PNA pattern, 92L or no 92L. Besides, the respected global models do virtually nothing with 92L (even less than what they've done with some other systems that struggled in that area). Regardless, it is rapidly running out of time anyway as it approaches the traditional dead zone of the E Caribbean.
Do I think we're done for the season? Not necessarily. There's still a ways to go. I know Gatorcane agrees. If I had to guess, I would expect a couple of named storms in or around the western basin in Oct. just based on pure climo. Even if they do develop, there's obviously no telling if they'd ever be CONUS threats. However, should anything develop then, there'd at least be a bit more interesting tropical wx in the western basin than there is now and than there will be much of the rest of this month.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

Moving west at 275 degrees.

AL, 92, 2012091612, , BEST, 0, 133N, 549W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[NDG]

It does not look that well as compared to yesterday morning.
The only global model support that I see is the ECMWF, barely.

Edit: If it develops I don't see that happening until it nears the western Caribbean, where UL divergence might help it with convection, could be a threat to S FL as it could get picked up by the next trough of low pressure next weekend.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

12z Best Track.

Moving west at 275 degrees.

AL, 92, 2012091612, , BEST, 0, 133N, 549W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Actually, BT changes from DB to Low(Strengthening). IMO it looks a lot better than yesterday. Covectionless center, but good structure.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Floridaman, will you share your ideas with us. I'd like to know your opinion.

[cycloneye]

Tropics showing all the signs of shutting down for the season.

Dont forget the subtropics that have been the focus for development this season. I think 92L may have a shot to develop and one of the reasons is this balmy TCHP that has been untouched this season.

[wxman57]

Wxman57, I respectfully disagree. Conditions should be favorable in 2-3 days time. I give 92L a 70% chance of becoming a hurricane.

Based upon what? All data indicate moderate shear (except briefly in 36-48hrs), dry air in mid levels and warm air aloft. Where are the favorable conditions?

[Anthysteg00]

Wxman57, I respectfully disagree. Conditions should be favorable in 2-3 days time. I give 92L a 70% chance of becoming a hurricane.

Based upon what? All data indicate moderate shear (except briefly in 36-48hrs), dry air in mid levels and warm air aloft. Where are the favorable conditions?

Based upon NHC official wording in the TWO. With all due respect, do you suggest otherwise?

[floridasun78]

ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
FEW DAYS. so wxman57 vs nhc let see what met is right