ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Can a new LLC form under the MLC?

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been requiered in Guadeloupe for a risk of strong showers and tstorms tonight till at least tommorow night.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I can't see a code orange at 8. Anyone?

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[katenjay]

Very glad to see the invest is now at 10%! I have a trip planned to Jamaica this week and I've been watching the weather like crazy. Crossing fingers that everything ends up okay.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track came out very late but here it is.

AL, 92, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 561W, 20, 1011, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

The requiem 2 AM TWO was not posted so here it is.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT
250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.


MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[canes04]

A little surprised with the 8am TWO. Appears the low is becoming better defined this morning.

[cycloneye]

ATCF keeps doing Best Track updates for 92L. Here is the 12z.

AL, 92, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 145N, 589W, 20, 1011, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[wxman57]

Obs across the eastern Caribbean indicate relatively high pressure (1015mb). Just a trace of a wave axis crossing the islands now. No evidence of any rotation. Caribbean remains rather hostile toward development, even more so than when Ernesto, Helene or Isaac moved through. And as for the Gulf, latest models have 50-100 mph winds from TX to FL through early October, signaling that the Gulf is shut down for business. Except for maybe 1-2 more storms in the subtropics north and east of the Caribbean, I think the season is over.

[WeatherGuesser]

I think the season is over.

No tears here.

Unless that in some weird way signals a long, cold winter.

[LarryWx]

ATCF keeps doing Best Track updates for 92L. Here is the 12z.

AL, 92, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 145N, 589W, 20, 1011, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

This same SHIPS model in its run just two days ago (9/15 1800 Z run) had 92L at 48 knots as of 2AM EDT this morning and 59 knts as of 2 PM EDT today. This model is incredibly unreliable as it apparently always assumes an actual TC already exists. So deceiving and no reason to take it seriously for system like this one that isn't even close to becoming a TC. I wonder if/when 57 will be trotting out Bones to declare it officially dead. Until then in deference to the great Dr. McCoy, we can't say it is officially 100% dead.

[psyclone]

Obs across the eastern Caribbean indicate relatively high pressure (1015mb). Just a trace of a wave axis crossing the islands now. No evidence of any rotation. Caribbean remains rather hostile toward development, even more so than when Ernesto, Helene or Isaac moved through. And as for the Gulf, latest models have 50-100 mph winds from TX to FL through early October, signaling that the Gulf is shut down for business. Except for maybe 1-2 more storms in the subtropics north and east of the Caribbean, I think the season is over.

while the western caribbean hasn't done much, there is no way i would write off that region through october. i hope you're right, i just think it's too soon for such a call. as much as i enjoy tracking and observing storms, the tranquility has been nice.

[wxman57]

while the western caribbean hasn't done much, there is no way i would write off that region through october. i hope you're right, i just think it's too soon for such a call. as much as i enjoy tracking and observing storms, the tranquility has been nice.

I wouldn't rule out development in the western Caribbean, perhaps along the trailing end of one of the stronger cold fronts that reaches that region in the next 2-3 weeks. That's why south Florida is still not out of the woods. That's about the only area south of 20N that could allow for TC development.

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis-animated.gif


*edited to remove IMG tags

[otowntiger]

Obs across the eastern Caribbean indicate relatively high pressure (1015mb). Just a trace of a wave axis crossing the islands now. No evidence of any rotation. Caribbean remains rather hostile toward development, even more so than when Ernesto, Helene or Isaac moved through. And as for the Gulf, latest models have 50-100 mph winds from TX to FL through early October, signaling that the Gulf is shut down for business. Except for maybe 1-2 more storms in the subtropics north and east of the Caribbean, I think the season is over.

Sounds good to me!!!

[Sanibel]

Maybe a chance of a TS IF conditions suddenly become favorable further west.

[cycloneye]

abajan, I ask about how are the winds in Barbados, especially the direction?

[christchurchguy]

winds have been S - SW lately at around 5-10 knots around 200
check the barbados radarhttp://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados-weather-radar.php