ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:37 pm

18z Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 161828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120916  1800   120917  0600   120917  1800   120918  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  55.9W   14.0N  57.4W   14.5N  59.1W   14.9N  60.9W
BAMD    13.5N  55.9W   13.8N  58.6W   14.1N  61.3W   14.3N  63.9W
BAMM    13.5N  55.9W   14.0N  58.0W   14.5N  60.1W   14.8N  62.3W
LBAR    13.5N  55.9W   13.9N  58.1W   14.4N  60.4W   14.8N  62.8W
SHIP        20KTS          21KTS          27KTS          37KTS
DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          27KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120918  1800   120919  1800   120920  1800   120921  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.4N  63.0W   16.3N  67.5W   17.2N  71.9W   17.7N  76.5W
BAMD    14.3N  66.6W   14.7N  71.6W   15.3N  75.8W   15.5N  79.7W
BAMM    15.0N  64.7W   15.3N  69.9W   15.9N  75.1W   16.7N  80.2W
LBAR    15.3N  65.4W   16.2N  70.4W   18.1N  75.3W   20.6N  80.8W
SHIP        48KTS          67KTS          79KTS          88KTS
DSHP        48KTS          67KTS          79KTS          81KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  55.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.3N LONM12 =  53.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  13.0N LONM24 =  51.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#22 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:43 pm

SHIPS still not wavering from intensity....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#23 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:47 pm

ROCK wrote:SHIPS still not wavering from intensity....


Wonder Why? In all seriousness, too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:28 pm

NOGAPS is still the only global model that is bullish with 92L. Here is the 18z run at 180 hours with 92L in the tip of Yucatan.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#25 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 8:19 pm

why ship going nut with this weak wave?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 17, 2012 8:06 am

12z Models. SHIP continues to be extremely bullish.


Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 171249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC MON SEP 17 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120917 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120917  1200   120918  0000   120918  1200   120919  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N  58.9W   15.0N  60.8W   15.3N  63.1W   15.9N  65.5W
BAMD    14.5N  58.9W   15.0N  61.2W   15.4N  63.4W   15.8N  65.5W
BAMM    14.5N  58.9W   15.1N  60.9W   15.6N  63.1W   16.1N  65.4W
LBAR    14.5N  58.9W   15.1N  61.1W   15.6N  63.6W   16.1N  66.2W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          41KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120919  1200   120920  1200   120921  1200   120922  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.4N  68.0W   17.0N  73.0W   17.5N  78.6W   18.0N  84.2W
BAMD    16.0N  67.4W   16.0N  71.0W   16.0N  74.5W   16.4N  78.2W
BAMM    16.5N  67.6W   17.3N  72.1W   18.3N  76.7W   19.6N  80.9W
LBAR    16.5N  68.7W   17.8N  73.8W   19.5N  77.8W   20.7N  80.0W
SHIP        52KTS          66KTS          77KTS          85KTS
DSHP        52KTS          66KTS          77KTS          85KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR =  58.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  56.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  54.9W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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