WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

This is near the Marianas.

SSD Floater.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[euro6208]

guam and the cnmi receiving alot of rain from this system...very breezy...

[phwxenthusiast]

it's starting to get that "look"... although pressure fall in PGUM isn't all that impressive yet...
GFS is being very bullish with this system and constantly been showing a typhoon by this weekend for almost two days now, talk about a trend!

[Meow]

Getting organized.

[euro6208]

vorticity is good...



looks like an anticyclone is over this invest and wind shear isn't that bad ahead of it...

despite all this, euro isn't developing this until next week...

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5N 145.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A
STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT YET DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 180343Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WITH A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK, ELONGATED LLCC WITH 5-15 KNOT
WINDS AND SLP VALUES RANGING FROM 1008 TO 1010 MB. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS, HOWEVER, SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FUELING LARGE
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

organizing west of guam...

[mrbagyo]

Upgraded to medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 190605Z SSMI
37GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LLCC. RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING MOISTURE
ENVELOPE AND MAY SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

looks like our 18th tropical cyclone is developing...


TXPQ27 KNES 190908
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 19/0832Z

C. 14.4N

D. 138.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/TMI/SSMI

H. REMARKS...VERY NICE CURVATURE OF LOW LEVEL BANDS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AS SEEN IN VIS LOOP PRIOR TO 05Z AND MICROWAVE SUITE SHOWED SIGNS
OF CLOSED LLC. RECENTLY CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE
CIRCULATION BECOME MUCH DEEPER/COLDER AND CAN BE MEASURED ON LOG10 FOR
.4 FOR DT OF 2.5. THIS SEEMS A BIT UNREPRESENTATIVE BUT MET IS 1.5 AND
PT AGREES TO WARRANT STARTING CLASSIFICATION OF T1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

19/0246Z 13.7N 140.4E TMI
19/0605Z 14.4N 139.2E SSMI


...GALLINA

[dexterlabio]

I almost spew my coffee seeing these models runs from Euro. If Euro's going to be believed then we can expect a TC by Saturday...but with its development, I would expect a TC as earlier as tonight or tomorrow morning.

I'm just leaning on the GFS's poleward solution in hopes that it will happen. I hate to see another typhoon in Luzon on the 26th-28th of September.

[dexterlabio]

ECMWF 12z model run, not much different from 00z.








Whilst the GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET and CMC...


The GFS solution showing a loop is interesting for me tho....

[euro6208]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT



WTPN21 PGTW 192300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 136.3E TO 13.6N 130.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 192132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 135.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
138.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191840Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
IMPROVED BANDING INTO AN ELONGATED, YET DEFINED LLCC. RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING MOISTURE
ENVELOPE AND MAY SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED OVERHEAD, AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT (05-10 KTS). SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO STEADY IMPROVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202300Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

ECMWF 12z model run, not much different from 00z.





Whilst the GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET and CMC...


The GFS solution showing a loop is interesting for me tho....

WOW! developing into a significant tropical cyclone at 130 degrees and from that point, it develops rapidly right up to landfall over luzon! another monster typhoon? the philippine sea must be ripe...

[dexterlabio]

Goodness. next week will Ketsana AND Nesat's anniversary. better shoo this booger away...

[euro6208]

Visible of 92W...

1.5 from both PGTW and KNES....

[ManilaTC]

Goodness. next week will Ketsana AND Nesat's anniversary. better shoo this booger away...

Include XANGSANE my friend.
Its that time of year.

[phwxenthusiast]

it seems to me that the mid-level circulation is outrunning the LLCC; no surprise there since JTWC says it's moving at 15kts... among the 00z, only the GFS seems to initialize well with this system and going by this model, it's showing a substantial slowdown in movement in the next 24 hours which should allow the circulations to align and eventually consolidate...

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[mrbagyo]

EURO had this landfalling in Luzon, its moving very fast in a westerly track ..no wonder- its "BER" month already.. Philippines got lucky on the early part of 2012, but dont forget that most of the typhoons that affect the Philippines form in the "BER" months, the "BER" months is the most prolific producer of very intense storms,,, examples are Nesat, Nalgae, Megi, Xangsane, Durian, Cimaron, Chebi, Angela, Zeb, Babs, Mike, just to name a few...and typhoons on "BER" months tend to go in the lower latitude, I dont know why...

[dexterlabio]

^I believe that's because the STR to the north is at its strongest during these months...steering storms to the west, but we can always expect mid-latitude troughs to dig into the STR and weaken it, though I think that'll depend on how strong the STR actually is.



I checked out the latest Euro and still shows the same, unfortunately...though I noticed it expects the landfall bit north, maybe somewhere in Cagayan-Isabela area. But guys it still has a long way to go so we can expect changes. All we have to do is to keep an eye on this system as it develops and moves closer.

[dexterlabio]

it seems to me that the mid-level circulation is outrunning the LLCC; no surprise there since JTWC says it's moving at 15kts... among the 00z, only the GFS seems to initialize well with this system and going by this model, it's showing a substantial slowdown in movement in the next 24 hours which should allow the circulations to align and eventually consolidate...

that will probably explain the appearance of this system...it's looking solid but lopsided...the models may be right on when this system will develop. Euro hints a start of development by Sat-Sunday then it bombs out while the GFS expects it to develop tomorrow...