WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

4.0 from both PGTW and KNES...looks like this will be upgraded to our 13th typhoon of the season very soon!

[Meow]

55 knots



STS 1217 (JELAWAT)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 22 September 2012

<Analyses at 22/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°55'(11.9°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°05'(13.1°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E129°20'(129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[Meow]

Both the JMA and JTWC estimate that Jelawat will not move into the South China Sea.



WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 11.9N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.6N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.4N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.6N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.6N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 129.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z
AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

that eyewall is nearing completion now... only a matter of time til we see that eye on visible...

[greenkat]

Probably RI when that eyewall is complete.

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon



TY 1217 (JELAWAT)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 23 September 2012
<Analyses at 23/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N11°50'(11.8°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E129°10'(129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E129°05'(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E128°35'(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

[cebuboy]

Thanks for all the data. It looks like it is stationary as of this movement. I do hope it will finally curve itself to to the north as stated in the forecast and not move westward.

If it continues to move west and intensify, Cebu City will experience its first strong typhoon since Mike in 1990.

[Meow]

A small but solid eye has formed.

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to 75kts.



WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.5N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.5N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.1N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.4N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 128.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z
AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

[Meow]

They change the forecasting track on every warning...Now the JTWC estimates that Jelawat may affect northern Taiwan.

[euro6208]

jelawat is rapidly intensifying! this will get severely underestimated with each warning...

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 971.4mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 6.0 6.5

Raw T# is already at category 4 which is slightly down from 7.0 earlier

[brunota2003]

CIMSS Raw T#s are up to 6.5/127 knots.

[euro6208]

latest discussion...

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
AND INCREASED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL EYE THAT IS BEGINNING TO
FORM. A 222126Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE LLCC WITH AN EYEWALL WELL ESTABLISHED AND
A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY 18W HAS CONTINUED EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND HAS SOME SLIGHT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT CELL
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND AN AGREEMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 18W HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED WEST
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE WEAK RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER JAPAN.
AFTER TAU 12, THIS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER EASTWARD AND THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AND AMPLIFY, DRIVING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. TY 18W SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE BECOME IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
RULING OUT EGRR AND JGSM WHICH CONTINUALLY TAKE AN UNLIKELY SHARP
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE UNLIKELY TRACKS OF THESE MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TY 18W HAS YET TO MAKE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AND DUE TO MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE YET TO REMAIN CONSISTENT. PREVIOUS
MODEL TRACKS THAT PUT THE LATER TAUS SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN,
NOW TRACK TOWARDS TAIWAN. DUE TO THIS MODEL INCONSISTENCY, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TY 18W WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96 BUT DUE TO THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS
WELL.//
NNNN

[greenkat]

jelawat is rapidly intensifying! this will get severely underestimated with each warning...

As I said...

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 961.8mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.0 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -22.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[ManilaTC]

ITS STARTING TO MOVE... West Northwest... continued defiance of the models continues.

[DukeDevil91]

Looks incredible right now.

[euro6208]

This isn't no 75 knot typhoon...it is well above 100 knots... sad thing is when the next warning comes out, it still will be way below and underestimated...

i would place the intensity at 115 knots category 4!






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Meow]

The JMA estimates that Jelawat may be stronger than Sanba in the future.



TY 1217 (JELAWAT)
Issued at 06:40 UTC, 23 September 2012

<Analyses at 23/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N12°05'(12.1°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°00'(14.0°)
E129°00'(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E128°40'(128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)