WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneBill]

It was a real miracle we had recon when Megi was a full peak.

As well as Jangmi in 2008.

[Crostorm]

Nice shot

[CrazyC83]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2012 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 16:53:26 N Lon : 127:12:16 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 916.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.9 6.9

[Typhoon Hunter]

Very nice shot indeed Crostorm, almost as nice as the image of Jangmi in your avatar! :p

Holding firm as a cat. 5 per Dvorak and latest JTWC warning.

[euro6208]

this isn't a low end category 5 typhoon...it has strengthened from when it was upgraded to a cat 5...140 knots? ......it's probrably about 160 knots right now...

this looks like hurricane mitch (1998) but probrably stronger...





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[mrbagyo]

this isn't a low end category 5 typhoon...it has strengthened from when it was upgraded to a cat 5...140 knots?

agree with you,
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 916.9mb/137.4kt


Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
weakening is off again

[Hurricane_Luis]

this isn't a low end category 5 typhoon...it has strengthened from when it was upgraded to a cat 5...140 knots?

I agree to

[euro6208]

this isn't a low end category 5 typhoon...it has strengthened from when it was upgraded to a cat 5...140 knots?

agree with you,
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 916.9mb/137.4kt


Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
weakening is off again

T numbers/UW CIMSS in this situation are irrelevant...we have to rely on that weak system that judges a storm's structure, white ring around eye, wmg eye, cold medium gray ring, cmg, met and pt are 7.0, ft is based on dt.....WHAT???

RECON MEASURES REAL PRESSURE AND WINDS....something dvorak will never do....

[mrbagyo]

T numbers/UW CIMSS in this situation are irrelevant...we have to rely on that weak system that judges a storm's structure, white ring around eye, wmg eye, cold medium gray ring, cmg, met and pt are 7.0, ft is based on dt.....WHAT???

RECON MEASURES REAL PRESSURE AND WINDS....something dvorak will never do....

Of course recon is the best, it deals with real measurement not estimates..
recon stopped in 1987, if American air bases didn't leave the Philippines, we might still have recon by now

[mrbagyo]

whoa... its now moving a bit westward to west-northwestward.. and looks like its about to undergo another round of EWRC

[Meow]

It was a real miracle we had recon when Megi was a full peak.

I think Megi was stronger, as we may have had recon before Megi’s peak.

If Jelawat really follows the JMA’s forecast (895 hPa 115 knots), it will become the second typhoon which pressure is below 900 hPa in the 21st century.

[Ntxw]

Jesus, trucking along.

[ejeraldmc]

hmm... moving a bit west

[alan1961]

Operational Linescan System (OLS) image captures
a perfect eye and structure

[Hurricane_Luis]

Bad Luck to People on Okinawa, This is forecast to pass over (or near) the island, at category 3 strenght. But they've been hit by hundreds of
Typhoons and Tropical Storms so they will be fine.

[dexterlabio]

not looking at its best right now, I think... though maybe that's just me again. the eye seems cloud-filled on visible sat loops but is very clear on IR imagery...

[phwxenthusiast]

not looking at its best right now, I think... though maybe that's just me again. the eye seems cloud-filled on visible sat loops but is very clear on IR imagery...

EWRC still going on so maybe that's causing the weakening... this is nearly 4-hours old though so not sure the progress is but if it could successfully complete that cycle, we may see it recover in the next 24 hours just like what we saw two days ago...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

the eye keep getting bigger and bigger with every Eyewall replacement cycle, when the eye clears out, this will be HUGE, bigger than before. looks like Jelawat of 2012 want to imitate the Jelawat of 2000
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2012_18W/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_10.html

[mrbagyo]

look at that huge round eye, and .... looks like its going annular?? just like Jelawat of 2000?

[dexterlabio]

it seems like the EWRC is not yet complete with its appearance right now. and it feels like this round of EWR will be "fatal" to the typhoon itself, but we'll see.