WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[Chickenzilla]

look at that huge round eye, and .... looks like its going annular?? just like Jelawat of 2000?

I don't think so. It is undergoing an EWRC now. You can see it on this satellite image.

[/URL]

[mrbagyo]

WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, ENDING IN A BIGGER 25-NM EYE.
THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING ONE
FROM A 261112Z SSMI-S PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED FROM THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD AND IS APPROACHING A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY A POLEWARD STREAM INTO THE BACK END OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
THAT PASSED EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES CIRRI TRANSVERSE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, INDICATING VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)TO THE EAST THAT HAS
SINCE REBUILT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER.
AFTERWARDS, A SECONDARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY EXITING INTO
THE YELLOW SEA, WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE NER
ANEW CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN, ALSO WEAKENED BY THE SAME
TROUGH, WILL SEAMLESSLY ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE 18W TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STEERED BY THE STR, STY 18W WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BECOMING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY END OF FORECAST AND AFTER LANDFALL
IN HONSHU, JAPAN. THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND FINALLY,
LANDMASS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH
GFDN AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNREALISTIC ACCELERATION INTO THE
WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN AND NOGAPS. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

EWRC finished according to JTWC, the only thing to do is to clear the eye

and oh my the T number is rising again!!


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 923.7mb/132.2kt

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[euro6208]

Maintaining Super Typhoon strength...I think he may strengthen some more as a bigger eye might develop...


WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.9N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.4N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 26.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 31.1N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 36.7N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 125.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just put this video together on this absolute powerful storm. I hope its useful.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq32JUiGtog[/youtube]

[Hurricane_Luis]

Super Typhoon Jelawat



STY Jelawat at 15:45 UTC 26/9/2012

[euro6208]

wow! jelawat may soon have a very large eye as very deep convection in the form of a donut surrounds a developing large eye!

[Dave C]

I was thinking this may still be pretty strong when passing Miyaka Jima which is about 25 deg latitude. I was looking at a loop of water vapor and an upper low is diving south and could create an outflow channel during next 24-48 hrs. This may help offset affects of drier air to the north for a little while allowing for slower weakening, just a thought.

[Hurricane_Luis]

I dont know where euro6208 has got to but here is warning #26



WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.4N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 31.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 37.4N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 125.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[keitheyleen]

seriously! typhoon loves Okinawa.. why Jelawat have to Right-turn, it would've go straight instead... heheh anyways here we again

[Typhoon Hunter]

I was thinking this may still be pretty strong when passing Miyaka Jima which is about 25 deg latitude. I was looking at a loop of water vapor and an upper low is diving south and could create an outflow channel during next 24-48 hrs. This may help offset affects of drier air to the north for a little while allowing for slower weakening, just a thought.

JTWC agree with you Dave, they keep Jelawat pretty strong through the Ryukus. Just looking at it now, it's an immense powerhouse which could really rake the islands hard!

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Jelawat with his 40 nm eye!


WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.5N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 29.5N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 33.8N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 38.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 124.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A
THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A NOW LARGER 40 NM EYE. A 262326Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND WELL
DEFINED SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LARGE EYE IN
THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM
140 TO 127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS APPROACHING A
RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER.
AFTERWARDS, A SECONDARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY EXITING FROM
EASTERN CHINA, WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE NER
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN, ALSO WEAKENED BY THE SAME
TROUGH, WILL ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE 18W TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STEERED BY THE STR, STY 18W WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96, AND MAKING LANDFALL ON
HONSHU, JAPAN. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK
POSITION, THEY VARY IN FORWARD TRANSLATION SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODELS ALSO CONTINUALLY VARY IN FORWARD
TRANSLATION SPEED, WITH ECMWF CONTINUALLY SHOWING A VERY SLOW TRACK.
ALL MODELS NOW TRACK ACROSS JAPAN AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, BUT
HISTORICALLY STORMS ARE NOT ABLE TO CROSS JAPAN'S MOUNTAINOUS
GEOGRAPHY, THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES LANDFALL IN JAPAN
BUT STAYS EAST. DUE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL SPEED, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

beautiful but deadly...

[mrbagyo]

holding super typhoon status for so long, what's the ACE of this one?
SANBA vs JELAWAT - who's more impressive? i will pick Jelawat

[Extratropical94]

holding super typhoon status for so long, what's the ACE of this one?
SANBA vs JELAWAT - who's more impressive? i will pick Jelawat

According to Ryan Maue's website, both Tembin and Bolaven had an ACE of 28 point something while Sanba had 25.5625.
Jelawat has already passed those and is currently at 30.3025.

[ManilaTC]

Here is a nasty 250 m MODIS TERRA Visible Image of STY Jelawat.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like a blade saw.. Defiantly do not recommend anyone to venture out in to the seas in this area.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Models are in agreement with this storm system right now. As far the track that is. The intensity though? Well Its split up. I think it will stay a strong storm at least for Okinawa, any thoughts here.

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

[phwxenthusiast]

Here is our latest Video Update on this system from Western Pacific Weather, comments are welcome!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxCW4OmYVPI[/youtube]

I've mentioned in the video about Taiwan's recon mission and looks like they flew around Jelawat earlier this morning sampling the environment.. they also found some pretty impressive winds despite keeping their distance from the center... unfortunately, DOTSTAR don't really fly INTO the eye so we won't have any confirmation on those min pressure or max fl winds... as a consolation, here's their 850hPa winds from the dropsondes.. the nearest point they got within the eye was only 150km or so...



you can find out more about the mission here:
http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en ... .php?id=64

[RobWESTPACWX]

Awesome! Thanks PAT!

By the way, I think the shear in the north starting to set in slightly. Take a look.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... mjava.html

[Frank2]

Kilowatt-Jelawat, that's for sure (LOL)...

Now THAT'S a hurricane (well, typhoon or cyclone)...

As one of my old HRD co-workers would say, that's not one of those mamby-pamby systems (lol)...

Hopefully it will not affect anyone directly, but it's going to be close...

Frank