WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[Typhoon Hunter]

Haha Frank, shove a few wind turbines under Jelawat and it'd generate a few kilowatts!

I'm en route to Okinawa right now, should land there tomorrow 1040 tomorrow local. Hope to then hope on flight to Miyakojima if they're still running! Ryukus are going to get hit hard but they're built for it!

[dexterlabio]

This has a huge wind field...just saw a local news clip showing strong rains and winds in Aparri and Sta. Ana, Cagayan. You can just imagine how bad it is within the eye wall. People in Okinawa and the Ryukus must be alert for this.

I took back what I've said about the recent EWRC being a fatal one to this storm...it actually looked more solid. Also amazing how it remains a super typhoon for a long time, has Jelawat set a new record already?

[mrbagyo]

has Jelawat set a new record already?

what record? you might want to compare Jelawat to hurricane/ typhoon Ioke which have an ACE of 82

[euro6208]

Another thing that is interesting, in the days that NASA's "global hawk" has been flying to Nadine; 2 explosive intensification happened in the Western Pacific and both became category 5. Might've been nicer to have the aircraft moved to Luzon for Sanba and Jelawat rather than Nadine....and future storms in our area...

[mrbagyo]

agree with you euro6208, nadine is just a persistent system nuff said, sanba and jelawat = real deal,

[dexterlabio]

i mean record of maintaining STY status for a long time...well Ioke could've been called a "super typhoon" for a longer time in the Central Pacific, but technically it's a "hurricane" before it crossed the boundary of the Western Pacific.

[dexterlabio]

Speaking of Nadine, I am equally amazed and annoyed by her persistence. She's hanging on there but stays insignificant. Would rake a lot of ACE for the Atlantic though...



meanwhile Jewalat remains a formidable typhoon...

[euro6208]

just below category strength....


WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.5N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.6N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 32.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 39.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 124.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH A 36-NM ROUND EYE. A 270928Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE
TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH POSITIONED JUST EAST OF
HONSHU; HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME INCREASED PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE
EYE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE 27/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF 18W HAS
CONTINUED TO ERODE DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CHINA
AND THE YELLOW SEA. THEREFORE, STY 18W HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE
POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY; HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK SPEEDS THAT IS MORE REALISTIC.
B. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24 AS THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 WITH A NOTEWORTHY 60-NM SPREAD AT TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON TRACK SPEEDS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY CLUSTERED OVER OKINAWA AND THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE SHARP TURN THAT IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK NEAR OKINAWA, STY 18W IS A
300-NM DIAMETER SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE AND EYEWALL AND WILL
MAINTAIN 100+ KNOT WINDS THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TRACK
SPEEDS. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING FASTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES DUE TO
ERRONEOUS INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN ERRATIC TRACK GUIDANCE WITH CYCLONICALLY-SHAPED TRACKS OVER AND
ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH A MORE REALISTIC TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
HONSHU. THIS TRACK IS POSITIONED TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TRACK. STY 18W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Warning #30 STY Jelawat



WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.3N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.5N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 34.4N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 41.0N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 123.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 46 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Little vortexes rotatoing around the common center

[Infdidoll]

Wow! I wouldn't be surprised if damage reports coming out of Okinawa are higher with this typhoon. West-side of the island approaches usually mean more damage.

All my friends still there have gotten really complacent about typhoons since they've been getting hammered by them this season. I am so aggravated that right about the time we leave, then the action kicks up. I really need to get a job back there as a contractor or something.

[euro6208]

wow! talk about a bull's eye for a small island that got hammered all year round...

[sikkar]

Going under EWR #3 (or 4, lost count ) and the size of the resulting eye is gonna be out of this world

http://imageshack.us/a/img339/2306/2012 ... tmi85h.jpg

[euro6208]

outer bands affecting yaeyama and miyako jima...

i didn't know people actually lived here

[phwxenthusiast]

Jelawat may be weakening but at least it didn't take that long for an official station to report Typhoon sustained unlike with Sanba and Bolaven...

Ishigaki reported 65G92KT this past hour...

EDIT:

Here's our latest update from WPW on this system discussing the heavy rains and strong winds in the islands... also a brief update on Ewiniar and also on the possible cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific next week... comments are welcome!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq4qJaAqVdQ[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

151kph winds in Sakashima as well. Already seeing clips of the storm come across local news here, trying to get some for 2000L show with the typhoon shots.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Take a look at this video of the winds from Jelawat in Ishigaki

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4w1RMYBp4c[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is some private footage shot in the area as well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OX-6-EmBW8[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OA40hLMUzg[/youtube]

[brunota2003]

Going under EWR #3 (or 4, lost count ) and the size of the resulting eye is gonna be out of this world

http://imageshack.us/a/img339/2306/2012 ... tmi85h.jpg

That would actually be more dangerous IMO...reason being, people enter the large eye and venture out only to be smacked out of nowhere by the inner eyewall. It passes by and they enter another period of weak winds before being smacked by the outer eyewall...yuck! Going through an eyewall 3 different times.

[euro6208]

miyako jima right under the eyewall!

pressure recorded is 967 before it stopped updating 3 hours ago...must be terrible over there...