WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

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#241 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:16 am

Max winds I seen thus far at 212kph, in Kadena 179kph though. Many cars over turned on the Kadena base as well. Back side of the eye is coming through stay safe guys!
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#242 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:19 am

It makes me happy to see people asking questions about typhoons/hurricanes...but it irritates me that they are waiting until in the middle of one to ask those questions :roll: :lol:
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#243 Postby keitheyleen » Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:24 am

September 29, 2012
Super Typhoon Jelawat!
This is on Camp Foster.
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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#244 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:37 am

Those 5 vehicles almost look like they were purposely parked that way! Were they? Or was it the shifting winds and they just happened to line up like that?
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#245 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:45 am

Ya sadly, a typhoon is a typhoon. Its just the direct hit of the max winds might miss those islands or come in at a different angle. So people they have received a full fury of a typhoon but in reality it really wasn't, this storm it was.

Heres my video on some of the damage and whats up next.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzp-FK4zpMQ[/youtube]
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#246 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 2:03 am

Max sustained winds actually recorded at the weather station in Naha (METAR sign ROAH) were 80 mph, with a max gust to 107 mph. On Kadena AB (METAR sign RODN), I see a peak sustained wind of 85 mph with a max gust to 115 mph. Some areas probably saw up to 90 or 95 mph sustained, but that's still only "Category 1" conditions. Seems about right from the pictures I'm seeing of damage.

Do you agree with that assessment, Rob?
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#247 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 29, 2012 2:34 am

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2244


One interesting discussion about Jelawat and the mysterious "boundary" off its eye.
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#248 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 2:41 am

Hm...that is interesting! Definitely some neat images there...Maybe super cooled water, and something triggered them to freeze along that line?
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Re:

#249 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 3:00 am

brunota2003 wrote:Max sustained winds actually recorded at the weather station in Naha (METAR sign ROAH) were 80 mph, with a max gust to 107 mph. On Kadena AB (METAR sign RODN), I see a peak sustained wind of 85 mph with a max gust to 115 mph. Some areas probably saw up to 90 or 95 mph sustained, but that's still only "Category 1" conditions. Seems about right from the pictures I'm seeing of damage.

Do you agree with that assessment, Rob?

Alright, so I was about 10 mph on the low side. Apparently Naha recorded 80 knot (roughly 92 mph) 10-minute sustained winds. Using the conversion of 12% from HRD FAQ page (that is a rough estimate, never perfect) yields sustained 1-minute winds of approximately 105 mph...with a gust to 137 mph. That actually fits almost perfectly into the sustained wind to max gust ratio, which (again per HRD FAQ page) is roughly 1.3

105 mph x 1.3 = 136.5 mph
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#250 Postby keitheyleen » Sat Sep 29, 2012 3:52 am

@brunota2003 i dont think someone would purposely parked that car while typhoon is under us.. there's been a lot of reports and pictures posted on kadena facebook page that are flipped over.. there's also a video of a car carried like a soda can..

here yah go, this is from camp kinser by naha area:
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=4603812015888


this is from kadena air base facebook page http://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase
Image
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#251 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:33 am

We got hit HARD today, even by Okinawa's standards, especially in Naha which has escaped the worst of recently typhoons. Here's footage I shot, it was extremely hazardous at time:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUiROwMLx-o[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#252 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:13 am

Here is the link to my overnight tube cast.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/09/29/typhoon-jelawat-storm-footage-and-forecast-29-30-september/

Big thanks to Typhoon Hunter for the storm footage in it, plus if you want more follow Kadenas FB Fan page, lots of videos and photos being shared there today.
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Re: Re:

#253 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:15 am

brunota2003 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Max sustained winds actually recorded at the weather station in Naha (METAR sign ROAH) were 80 mph, with a max gust to 107 mph. On Kadena AB (METAR sign RODN), I see a peak sustained wind of 85 mph with a max gust to 115 mph. Some areas probably saw up to 90 or 95 mph sustained, but that's still only "Category 1" conditions. Seems about right from the pictures I'm seeing of damage.

Do you agree with that assessment, Rob?

Alright, so I was about 10 mph on the low side. Apparently Naha recorded 80 knot (roughly 92 mph) 10-minute sustained winds. Using the conversion of 12% from HRD FAQ page (that is a rough estimate, never perfect) yields sustained 1-minute winds of approximately 105 mph...with a gust to 137 mph. That actually fits almost perfectly into the sustained wind to max gust ratio, which (again per HRD FAQ page) is roughly 1.3

105 mph x 1.3 = 136.5 mph



I saw some reports up to 153kph, with gust to 212kph, that would be in the Cat 4 category as far as gust, but sustained a weak Cat 2, given what I saw I would say Cat 2 to 3 in at landfall. Just from these reports, James was there Id ask him for his first hand recollection.
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#254 Postby Infdidoll » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:30 am

I was always told that typhoons hitting from the West were the most dangerous, putting the island in the front right quadrant for longer and also because of the way the wind strikes the island. Songda in 2011 hit from a similar angle doing an amazing amount of damage and it was only about a Category 2 equivalent. Category 4 equivalent storms haven't done near the damage of Songda, but THIS typhoon seems to be topping them all for damage within the last so many years.

:eek: The photos I'm seeing on some of the Okinawa Facebook pages are incredible!
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#255 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:39 am

One thing I do haft to say, it really shows how awesome the infrastructure is in Okinawa, a storm of same intensity hitting lets say the Gulf Coast in the states and odiously the Philippines, I thin it would be worst.
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#256 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:53 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:We got hit HARD today, even by Okinawa's standards, especially in Naha which has escaped the worst of recently typhoons. Here's footage I shot, it was extremely hazardous at time:



very impressive...i read somewhere that the highest gust recorded is 180 mph...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#257 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:01 am

dexterlabio wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2244


One interesting discussion about Jelawat and the mysterious "boundary" off its eye.


Image

High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.



very interesting indeed..
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#258 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:29 am

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 037
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 28.0N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 130.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.2N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.4N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 40.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 45.1N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 131.2E.
TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND
301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TY 18W HAS UNDERGONE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
ABOUT FIVE HOURS PREVIOUSLY, BUT HAS RECENTLY SEEN A PINHOLE EYE RE-
DEVELOP IN THE LAST HOUR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
AND PGTW FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
VARIETY OF DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD RANGING FROM 77 TO
90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL REMAINS HINDERED, WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL CONTINUES
PROVIDING AMPLE EXHAUST FOR THE SYSTEM. A RECENT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK UPWELLING ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS COULD BE A FACTOR IN BRIEF
WEAKENING OBSERVED. TY 18W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU, MAKING LANDFALL
AROUND 30/09Z BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK SPEEDS. INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SSTS, AND EVENTUALLY INTERACTION WITH LAND
WILL CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 24 TY 18W IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND WILL BE A FULLY
COLD-CORE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 24 AND
INCREASING MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS
LEADING TO THE QUICK TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGION OF HONSHU. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE TRACK SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS HIGH.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon

#259 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:10 am

Image

Image

jelawat isn't done yet...pinhole eye!

BUT HAS RECENTLY SEEN A PINHOLE EYE RE-
DEVELOP IN THE LAST HOUR.
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Re:

#260 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:34 am

brunota2003 wrote:Max sustained winds actually recorded at the weather station in Naha (METAR sign ROAH) were 80 mph, with a max gust to 107 mph. On Kadena AB (METAR sign RODN), I see a peak sustained wind of 85 mph with a max gust to 115 mph. Some areas probably saw up to 90 or 95 mph sustained, but that's still only "Category 1" conditions. Seems about right from the pictures I'm seeing of damage.

Do you agree with that assessment, Rob?


IMO that seems reasonable, maybe Cat 2 conditions in exposed spots. The central pressure was likely about 942mb at the time (almost identical to Sanba) based on the surface data. Given its larger size, I would estimate the intensity at closest approach was about 95 kt. But as we have seen many times before, a large Category 2 storm can still do very severe and widespread damage.
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