EPAC: MIRIAM - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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EPAC: MIRIAM - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2012 12:42 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep932012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209191747
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012091918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932012
EP, 93, 2012091818, , BEST, 0, 120N, 950W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012091900, , BEST, 0, 120N, 955W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012091906, , BEST, 0, 120N, 960W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012091912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 965W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012091918, , BEST, 0, 120N, 970W, 20, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2012 12:59 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE...LOCATED ABOUT 1380 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#3 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:00 pm

Well well well. Should be Miriam and Mexico needs to watch this one closely!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:10 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 191749
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1749 UTC WED SEP 19 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932012) 20120919 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120919  1800   120920  0600   120920  1800   120921  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  97.0W   11.8N  98.6W   11.3N 100.5W   11.4N 102.5W
BAMD    12.0N  97.0W   12.0N  98.2W   12.1N  99.3W   12.4N 100.2W
BAMM    12.0N  97.0W   12.1N  98.0W   12.0N  99.3W   12.2N 100.8W
LBAR    12.0N  97.0W   12.1N  98.1W   12.5N  99.5W   12.9N 101.0W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          30KTS          35KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          30KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120921  1800   120922  1800   120923  1800   120924  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N 104.3W   11.9N 108.3W   12.4N 112.7W   12.1N 116.4W
BAMD    12.8N 101.1W   14.3N 103.6W   16.2N 107.4W   18.2N 110.9W
BAMM    12.5N 102.4W   13.3N 106.2W   13.9N 110.8W   13.9N 114.4W
LBAR    13.4N 102.6W   15.2N 106.4W   17.7N 110.7W   19.9N 113.8W
SHIP        42KTS          51KTS          56KTS          71KTS
DSHP        42KTS          51KTS          56KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.0N LONCUR =  97.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  96.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  95.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:50 pm

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#6 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:59 pm

GFS and Euro have backed off of a landfall within 200 hours but still, keep an eye. They all develop this into a hurricane as well as it lingers over warm waters so it has potential for a MH imo.

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Re:

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro have backed off of a landfall within 200 hours but still, keep an eye. They all develop this into a hurricane as well as it lingers over warm waters so it has potential for a MH imo.

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Landfall is on again per 12z Euro.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2012 6:48 pm

5 PM PDT TWO up to 30%


A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACCOMAPANIES A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:47 pm

GFS showed a California landfall from this 24 hours ago, but since then, models have shifted east.
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#10 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:45 am

Well, I'm following it. :D
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:40 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 20, 2012 7:59 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:00 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Image


Strong TS near Mexico.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2012 1:40 pm

TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:08 pm

18z Best Track.

EP, 93, 2012092018, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1028W, 25, 1008, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:05 pm

Discussion of 22:05 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPED EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH AT 13N103W
1008 MB. IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-NW AND INTENSIFY REACHING
14N105W LATE TONIGHT AND 15N108W FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS.


SINGLE ANTICYCLONE AT 15N98W PROVIDES LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER AT
13N103W. WITH PLENTY OF HEAT ENERGY AVAILABLE AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 28 DEG CELSIUS...LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HRS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:50 pm

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:08 pm

00z Best Track.

EP, 93, 2012092100, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1033W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:25 pm

Image

Nora 97 anyone?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:40 am

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 21 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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