EPAC: MIRIAM - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Depression

#121 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2012 3:53 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LAST BIT OF DEEP
CONVECTION DISSIPATED AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. A 1708 UTC
ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW WIND VECTORS JUST BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION HAS LIKELY BEEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY SET AT 30 KT. SUBSEQUENTLY...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 25C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTING OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND A
SURROUNDING STABLE AIR MASS. MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 3
DAYS OR LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/4...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD IN THE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND STEERING FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 22.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 21.4N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 21.2N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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#122 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Sep 27, 2012 4:20 pm

Weakens to Tropical Depression...Just a convectionless swirl

...MIRIAM WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
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#123 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 27, 2012 7:09 pm

Bye Bye Miriam.
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Post-Tropical

#124 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2012 9:39 pm

Last Advisory written

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2012

...MIRIAM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 116.7W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST.
MIRIAM HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SHIP REPORT NEAR THE CENTER OF MIRIAM INDICATES THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MIRIAM SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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