EPAC: MIRIAM - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932012_ep132012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209220027
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 13, 2012092200, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1071W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

Gonna be our next storm! I have a feeling that this should give us something nice to watch.

[Yellow Evan]

How strong do you all think it will get?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 107.5W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 375 N MI
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD HAVE A FEW
DAYS TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C
WATERS AND STAY IN AN FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RI INDEX INDICATES ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 30-KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER A FEW
DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THESE LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER
WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN A FEW DAYS...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BASED ON THE CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT TO LAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.3N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.9N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 118.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 19.5N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Kingarabian]

How strong do you all think it will get?

Depends. I'm thinking if the NHC is thinking it will make it to 85mph then it could be our next major hurricane.

[Macrocane]

I believe it has a good chance to be the next major too, but I'll give it another 18-24 hours to see how fast it is organizing and then I will be more sure.

[brunota2003]

Looking at Atlantic and East Pacific storms, the NHC has been issuing advisories constantly since 21 August at 5 am (streak started with Hurricane Isaac). 32 days and counting.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at Atlantic and East Pacific storms, the NHC has been issuing advisories constantly since 21 August at 5 am (streak started with Hurricane Isaac). 32 days and counting.

So proud and glad we have them

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at Atlantic and East Pacific storms, the NHC has been issuing advisories constantly since 21 August at 5 am (streak started with Hurricane Isaac). 32 days and counting.

So proud and glad we have them

Yeah, the EPAC has been on a roll lately.

[Yellow Evan]

How strong do you all think it will get?

Depends. I'm thinking if the NHC is thinking it will make it to 85mph then it could be our next major hurricane.

I'm thinking 85-105 knts.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
CONVECTION IS RAGGED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THERE ARE BANDING
FEATURES DEVELOPING IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR
INDICATING THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW. IN FACT...SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS
VERY LOW SHEAR THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS. DUE TO THE LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE WARM OCEAN...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE NEARING
COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER IS
STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
MORE THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE HWRF/GFDL PAIR...TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS RECURVE THE CYCLONE EAST OF 118 DEGREES WEST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 13.7N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.0N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.3N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 19.5N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track says hello Miriam!

EP, 13, 2012092212, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1075W, 35, 1003, TS

[Yellow Evan]

Hello Miriam! Long time no see.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 107.7W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK MIRIAM WILL REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND MIRIAM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN AREA OF COLD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER AND A
LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ALL SUPPORT NAMING THE
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT.
MIRIAM IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATERS...SO
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE THAT WOULD
SUGGEST RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS IMMINENT...THAT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF AN INNER CORE CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...SHOWING MIRIAM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY
36 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
INCREASES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLOWER WEAKENING BY DAY 5 AS
MIRIAM SHOULD JUST BE NEARING THE 26C ISOTHERM AT THAT TIME.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
WHILE IT ORGANIZES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 285/04. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...
AS MIRIAM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AND THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE TVCE
CONSENSUS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND INDUCE A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOWING A NORTHWARD
MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET TURN MIRIAM WESTWARD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD THE NHC TRACK SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.9N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.5N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

I still think the NHC is being conservative about the storm intensifying.

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone here think this system will RI?