EPAC: MIRIAM - Post-Tropical

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Re:

#41 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 22, 2012 11:34 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Anyone here think this system will RI?



I think it could if it gets an inner core established in the next few days. Looking at the latest visible satellite loop, it looks like the center may be north of where the NHC has it in the last advisory. Does anyone else notice this?
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Re: Re:

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:12 pm

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#43 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:31 pm

Should be up to 45 knots at 2pm PDT.

22/1800 UTC 14.4N 107.2W T3.0/3.0 MIRIAM -- East Pacific
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#44 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:34 pm

Best Track says 35:

EP, 13, 2012092218, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1073W, 35, 1003, TS
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:38 pm

Is has not moved much in the past few hours.
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Re:

#46 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:50 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Best Track says 35:

EP, 13, 2012092218, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1073W, 35, 1003, TS

Not sure why when UW-CIMSS is at T2.9/43 knots, SAB is at T3.0/45 knots, and the storm is obviously better organized than earlier this morning.
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#47 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:26 pm

Nevermind, they must have viewed this ASCAT pass that wasn't available until just a while ago.

Image
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Re:

#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:30 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Nevermind, they must have viewed this ASCAT pass that wasn't available until just a while ago.

Image


ASCAT underestimates these types of storms.
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:32 pm

That pass was made at 1:12 PM EDT or 10:12 AM PDT. The real time is at the bottom.
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...MIRIAM GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 107.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
MIRIAM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESETNATION OF MIRIAM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THERE ARE NOW SEVERAL CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO
AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT
PASS FROM AROUND 1730 UTC SUGGESTED THAT MIRIAM WAS NOT AS STRONG
AS EARLIER SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATED...SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE OF
30 KT WIND VECTORS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE IMPROVING
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
MIRIAM APPEARS POISED FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH SOME SIGNS OF A
DEVELOPING INNER CORE AND A TRACK OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS THAN A 25-KT INCREASE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LIKELY AND A 30-KT INCREASE IS ABOUT A 50/50
PROPOSITION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED IN
THE SHORT RANGE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND
CLOSE TO THE HWRF THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MIRIAM WILL
BE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION FROM
THE LAST ADVISORY. DUE TO THE RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN 300/08. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MIRIAM SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ABOUT
40-50 N MI TO THE RIGHT OF THE OLD ONE DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE CENTER AND AN ADJUSTMENT HALFWAY TOWARD THE NEW TVCE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE...BUT THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT AS TO
HOW MUCH LATITUDE MIRIAM WILL GAIN. AT ONE EXTREME...THE GFDL AND
GFS SHOW A MOTION EAST OF DUE NORTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
MIRIAM INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 30N/130W BY DAY 5. ON
THE OTHER EXTREME THE ECMWF AND HWRF SHOW MIRIAM TURNING WESTWARD
AND BYPASSING THE SHORTWAVE. SINCE MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEEP
CYCLONE IT SHOULD GAIN AT LEAST SOME LATITUDE IN RESPONSE TO THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE. GIVEN THIS REASONING...AND A DESIRE TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY DUE TO THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...THE NHC TRACK AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.3N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.8N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.1N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 17.2N 111.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 19.3N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 20.2N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 21.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:That pass was made at 1:12 PM EDT or 10:12 AM PDT. The real time is at the bottom.


Yea, and since then IMO, the organization has improved.
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:43 pm

00z Best Track up to 40kts.

EP, 13, 2012092300, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1081W, 40, 1002, TS
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#53 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:19 pm

This has RI waiting to happen. I believe it will RI decently next the 12 hours.
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...MIRIAM STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 108.5W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
MIRIAM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

MIRIAM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE DISTINCT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...3.0/45 KT
FROM SAB...AND 3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. SINCE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS WEAKER THAN ITS SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SUGGESTED...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ONLY INCREASED
TO 40 KT.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
CONDUCIVE FOR MIRIAM TO GAIN MORE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS MORE THAN A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE LOWER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE HIGHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...LEANING
TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISING IF MIRIAM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN
FORECAST. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER
WATERS OF ABOUT 26C AND INTO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
THESE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING
TREND...AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.

AFTER MOVING ERRATICALLY EARLIER TODAY...IT APPEARS THAT MIRIAM IS
MOVING MORE STEADILY NOW. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/7. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS STEERED BY
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK
BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND SOME
OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE PREDICT MIRIAM TO TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS
SHOW A TURN TO THE WEST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS ABOUT 1000 N MI BY DAY
5. THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE LARGE MODEL DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF MIRIAM. OVERALL...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.9N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 16.8N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.5N 114.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.4N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.3N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re:

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:46 pm

Kingarabian wrote:This has RI waiting to happen. I believe it will RI decently next the 12 hours.


Still think it has a shot at becoming an MH?
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:02 pm

Some deep convection is really firing over the center now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: Re:

#57 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:30 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:This has RI waiting to happen. I believe it will RI decently next the 12 hours.


Still think it has a shot at becoming an MH?

YUP!
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 23, 2012 5:30 am

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012

MIRIAM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A SMALL CDO
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
ALSO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT
VALUES WERE T3.5/55 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS...AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.

MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THE
CENTER HAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
310/07 KT. MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND
5...HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NEW 23/00Z ECMWF
MODEL MADE A MAJOR TRACK SHIFT TO THE EAST AND IS NOW THE RIGHTMOST
OF ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
GFS MODEL RUNS. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED THEIR MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LATTER PERIODS. GIVEN
THAT MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FAIRLY ROBUST HURRICANE BY 72
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS SINCE BOTH OF THOSE MODELS DEVELOP A DEEPER VORTEX
THAT IS LIFTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5 BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
IN FACT...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
5 KT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. DUE
TO MIRIAM FORECAST TO BE FARTHER EAST AND OVER WARMER WATERS THAN
PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE INTENSITY WAS NUDGED UPWARD
SLIGHTLY AT THOSE LATTER TIME PERIODS...AND MIGHT NEED TO BE
INCREASED ON SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES IF A FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HWRF AND FSSE MODELS...
BOTH OF WHICH ARE ABOVE THE REMAINING NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 16.2N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 17.2N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.1N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 18.7N 114.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.8N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 20.8N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 21.8N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#59 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 23, 2012 6:53 am

Tropical Storm Miriam

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:29 am

12z Best Track up to 55kts.

EP, 13, 2012092312, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1092W, 55, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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