WPAC: EWINIAR - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 25, 2012 11:25 am

Image

iwo jima bearing the brunt of ewiniar...
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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:33 am

Image

let's not forget about jelawat's little brother :lol: ..45 knot 1 min and out to sea but may affect japan with his huge outer rain bands...


WTPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 27.6N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.5N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.1N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 32.5N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 34.2N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 38.8N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 142.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#23 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:43 am

Latest Discussion...



WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE SHALLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
IS EVIDENT ON A 260801Z SSSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ALSO LENDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TS 19W IS MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THAT WAS WEAKENED BY A TRANSITING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS DEEPENED INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST OF
JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE STR REBUILDS WITH THE FILLING AND EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS EVENT. AFTER THE LOW PASSES, 19W WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATERS. AS THE
CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER TAU 48 IT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET), COMPLETING ET BY TAU
72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN
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#24 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:53 pm

And for TS Ewiniar

Image

Up to Severe Tropical Storm

WTPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 29.1N 142.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 142.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 30.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 31.5N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 32.7N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 34.9N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 40.1N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 142.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER
TO SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:20 pm

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 30.3N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.5N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 32.4N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 33.2N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 34.9N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 41.2N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 30.6N 142.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

possible typhoon?



WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAKENING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 262118Z 37GHZ
CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH
A SMALL EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO APPEAR. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS TS 19W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER IT. TS 19W WILL LIKELY HOLD ITS INTENSITY DESPITE
THIS INTERACTION DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
AFTER TAU 24, TS 19W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 36 UPON A
REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL COMMENCE BY TAU 48 AND THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY INSIDE
AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR HISTORICAL
TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE DURING RECURVATURE SCENARIOS AND TO OFFSET
GFDN WHICH TAKES AN ERRONEOUS POLEWARD TRACK. DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:37 pm

Image

SMALL EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO APPEAR.



SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 974 hPa MSW = 67 kt
CIMSS AMSU: 971 hPa 75 kt
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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 27, 2012 12:07 am

Image

Image

Image

Definitely a typhoon...another underestimated system....
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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:18 am

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 31.6N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 141.8E


WDPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS 19W HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, WHICH HAS PERSISTED OFF
THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS
UPPER-LEVEL, CLOUD-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW (50-
70 KNOT WINDS) IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 19W. DESPITE THE RECENT SUBTROPICAL
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM, TS 19W HAS THUS FAR RETAINED TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
271128Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICT A SYMMETRIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND SHALLOW TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ELSEWHERE. A
HIGHER RESOLUTION 270749Z SSMIS IMAGE HAD DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MODEL
ANALYSIS CHARTS INDICATED THAT TS 19W WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED, A
270655Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION STILL SHOWS A +3C WARM TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED METOP-A IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND ON THE
271129Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. TS 19W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND WILL
ACCELERATE AS AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE KOREA REGION, TRACKS EASTWARD OVER
EASTERN JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
360NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED RIGHT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF, GFS AND JGSM MODELS. TS
19W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.//
NNNN
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#29 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Sep 27, 2012 4:23 pm

STS Ewinar Warnig #16

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Its hardly Moving

WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 31.6N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 32.6N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 34.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 36.8N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 39.5N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 44.1N 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 141.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND
282100Z.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#30 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Sep 28, 2012 2:23 pm

Severe Tropical Storm Ewiniar, Could this become a Typhoon before it reaches cooler SSTs

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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:49 pm

Image



WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 34.5N 146.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 146.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 37.5N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 40.3N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 42.5N 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 147.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION BUT CONTINUES
TO BE DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER,
THE SHARP OUTLINES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A NOTCH FEATURE ON THE 282317Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY, ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS EWINIAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH ID LAID SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE
RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. //
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: EWINIAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#32 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:25 am

Image

FINAL WARNING...


WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 37.9N 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 37.9N 149.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 41.4N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 43.2N 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 38.8N 150.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SEPARATED
COMPLETELY FROM THE CONVECTION. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE
LLCC STRUCTURE. CONTINUED ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST WILL FURTHER
ERODE THE SYSTEM CAUSING TS 19W TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET) WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BASED ON THE TRANSITION TO AN ET SYSTEM, THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 15 FEET.
REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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#33 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:10 am

Developed Low Former Tropical Storm Ewiniar

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