WPAC: EWINIAR - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

West of Guam.

[euro6208]

Next name on the list is EWINIAR....submitted by Micronesia which means chuuk traditional god...

it's been used 2 times...2000 and 2006...both storms became typhoons peaking at 75 knots and 130 knots...

can this year's ewiniar become the 3rd straight typhoon?

[euro6208]

tremendous rain in my area...its been cloudy all day and pressures have been steady...

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1N 140.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENT FLOW
WEST OF A BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. A PARTIAL 221823Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA
OF VERY POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM
THE WEST, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE MSI DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FURTHER
INDICATES THERE IS GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW DUE TO A TUTT CELL LOCATED
AT APPROXIMATELY 25N 160E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Meow]

Now a tropical depression, it may become a tropical storm within 24 hours.



TD
Issued at 07:25 UTC, 23 September 2012

<Analyses at 23/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°35'(15.6°)
E140°30'(140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E140°00'(140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[mrbagyo]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
140.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST OF THE CENTER. A 222255Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES IMPROVED FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC AND STRONG BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW. A 230002Z PARTIAL
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS SHARP TROUGHING WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
AND 25- TO 30-KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS
CURRENTLY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL
NEAR 25N 167E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT AND STRUCTURE AS WELL AS
MODEL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT!


WTPN21 PGTW 231230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 140.4E TO 22.0N 140.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
140.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
138.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
EAST QUADRANT. A 230830Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BUT
DEFINED LLCC WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 23/06Z SHIP REPORT APPROXIMATELY 240NM WEST OF THE CENTER
INDICATED WINDS 330/21 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1002MB, INDICATIVE OF THE
QUICKLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. A 230002Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
SHARP TROUGHING WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND 25- TO 30-KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL NEAR 24N 166E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241230Z.//
NNNN

[greenkat]

tremendous rain in my area...its been cloudy all day and pressures have been steady...

Structure looks OK on visible... How about the winds over there, euro?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Not the clearest picture, but does show an elongated circulation. OOO how I wish we had recon out here.

[euro6208]

tremendous rain in my area...its been cloudy all day and pressures have been steady...

Structure looks OK on visible... How about the winds over there, euro?

it's been calm...

euro actually showing a possible typhoon just south of tokyo?

[greenkat]

tremendous rain in my area...its been cloudy all day and pressures have been steady...

Structure looks OK on visible... How about the winds over there, euro?

it's been calm...

euro actually showing a possible typhoon just south of tokyo?

Oh, great

[cycloneye]

TD
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 24 September 2012
<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°30'(17.5°)
E140°00'(140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°00'(21.0°)
E139°10'(139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

JTWC has also upgraded to TD.

[cycloneye]

First warning by JTWC.



PN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231221Z SEP 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 139.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 139.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.7N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.4N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 24.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.6N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.0N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.9N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 35.7N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 138.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 231221Z SEP 12
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 231230). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W
(JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Meow]

Tropical Storm Ewiniar



TS 1218 (EWINIAR)
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 24 September 2012

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°20'(20.3°)
E138°55'(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°05'(22.1°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°55'(23.9°)
E139°35'(139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E140°10'(140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°20'(30.3°)
E140°20'(140.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.8N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.5N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 30.2N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 33.5N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 37.1N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 138.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z,
250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 18W
(JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Latest Discussion...



WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE EAST QUADRANT. A 241227Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED BUT IMPROVING LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS, THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED MARGINAL DUE TO MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM STY 18W. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS, BASED ON A 241227Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 35-KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT FIXES AND THE 241227Z METOP-A
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TS 19W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 45
KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECREASING VWS.
AFTER TAU 48, TS 19W IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS ALONG AND INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM MAY ENCOUNTER WEAK
BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH; HOWEVER, THERE
IS NO EVIDENCE THAT TS 19W WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 19W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE
TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VWS AND WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER HONSHU, TS 19W IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE KANTO PLAIN AND SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
HONSHU. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 138.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.8N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.6N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.6N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.4N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.3N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 34.2N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 39.4N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 138.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER
TO SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Latest Discussion...


WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AND A 242057Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND OBJECTIVE
FIXES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA INDICATING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
TS 19W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST TOWARD THE BASED OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SEA OF JAPAN ACROSS THE EAST
CHINA SEA. PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM STY 18W CONTINUES TO CONFINE THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
POLEWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, AND AN ANTICIPATED
PERIOD OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH
MOVES OVER TS 19W, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUPPRESSED
OUTFLOW WILL HALT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR, BUT IMPROVING, AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 19W WILL ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS AND ACCELERATE POLEWARD TOWARD THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. DURING THIS TIME, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. TS 19W IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY UNTIL
FORECAST TAU 120, WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

A very one-sided Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

45 knots...


WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 23.7N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.8N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.5N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 34.4N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 39.3N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 45.8N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 139.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY
DISPLACED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, DESPITE THE VWS,
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED, PRIMARILY FUELED BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 7 DEGREES
NORTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THAT IS CAUSING THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 19W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL REGAIN A MORE
POLEWARD STORM MOTION AS THE STR REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS THE STRONG OUTFLOW PERSISTS AND THE VWS RELAXES SLIGHTLY
AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 19W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR AGAIN WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SYSTEM
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 12O. INCREASING VWS AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL ALSO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ALL TAUS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

euro has ewiniar rapidly strengthening south of japan...could this verify?