EPAC: NORMAN - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: NORMAN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:12 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209261418
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012092612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942012
EP, 94, 2012092612, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1030W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:48 pm

11 AM PDT TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2012 2:10 pm

First model plots for 94E.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 261905
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1905 UTC WED SEP 26 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942012) 20120926 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120926  1800   120927  0600   120927  1800   120928  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N 105.2W   14.0N 107.1W   15.9N 108.9W   18.0N 110.7W
BAMD    12.6N 105.2W   13.6N 107.1W   15.0N 108.8W   16.8N 110.1W
BAMM    12.6N 105.2W   13.7N 107.1W   15.2N 109.1W   17.2N 110.9W
LBAR    12.6N 105.2W   13.9N 106.9W   15.6N 108.6W   17.8N 110.2W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120928  1800   120929  1800   120930  1800   121001  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.4N 112.0W   23.5N 114.2W   25.1N 117.3W   26.1N 120.6W
BAMD    18.6N 111.2W   21.3N 112.6W   22.8N 114.1W   24.1N 115.8W
BAMM    19.0N 112.1W   21.5N 113.6W   22.6N 115.3W   23.6N 117.9W
LBAR    20.1N 111.3W   24.6N 112.6W   26.0N 112.4W   24.5N 112.3W
SHIP        46KTS          46KTS          41KTS          33KTS
DSHP        46KTS          46KTS          41KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.6N LONCUR = 105.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 = 103.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 = 101.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
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#4 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:58 pm

Next name on the list is Norman

Invest 94-E :darrow:

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2012 6:38 pm

Up to 40%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 26, 2012 9:03 pm

I have a feeling this large thingy wont form.
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#7 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 26, 2012 11:45 pm

Looks good, i'd go with 50% if not 60%.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2012 5:20 am

11 PM PDT TWO up to 50%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:58 am

5 AM PDT TWO up to 60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 27, 2012 5:01 pm

I still think this will bust.
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Re:

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 27, 2012 5:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:I still think this will bust.

Only thing that can hinder it's development are the Upper level winds. Else, SST's and moisture are a plenty!
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Re: Re:

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I still think this will bust.

Only thing that can hinder it's development are the Upper level winds. Else, SST's and moisture are a plenty!


It is also close to land.
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#13 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:36 pm

Down to 50%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE COAST OF WESTERN
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL FORM BEFORE THE
LOW REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Re: Re:

#14 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:59 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I still think this will bust.

Only thing that can hinder it's development are the Upper level winds. Else, SST's and moisture are a plenty!


It is also close to land.

I forgot it stopped moving WNW lol.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2012 7:36 am

Tropical Storm may be forming

A POORLY DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES
OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND HUATABAMPITO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
NNNN
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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 28, 2012 7:46 am

So, it looks like it is gonna form after all.
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#17 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 28, 2012 7:55 am

Wow, I've never seen "poorly defined" in the final TWO before a storm's formation.
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#18 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:02 am

And we should have TS Norman at 8am PDT.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942012_ep142012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209281254
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 14, 2012, TS, O, 2012092612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP142012
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#19 Postby Florida1118 » Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:26 am

It is now TS Norman.

...TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 28
Location: 22.8°N 108.6°W
Moving: N at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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Re:

#20 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:30 am

Extratropical94 wrote:Wow, I've never seen "poorly defined" in the final TWO before a storm's formation.


TS Ernesto was poorly-defined from east of the Caribbean until it finally got going in the western Caribbean. The plane had a hard time finding any circulation for quite a while.
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