WPAC: MALIKSI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 20W - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 30, 2012 11:13 pm

Latest Discussion


WDPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING-IN
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH HAVE MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ALTHOUGH
THE CELLS REMAIN FRAGMENTED AND POORLY ORGANIZED. ADDITIONALLY, AT
LEAST TWO OTHER VORTICES APPEAR TO BE OSCILLATING NORTHEAST OF THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON
A 302257Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM CIMS, PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TUTT CELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THERE IS ALSO AMPLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AWAY FROM THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD INTO THE YELLOW SEA IS POISED
TO WEAKEN THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE STR. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE THE TD
TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, PEAKING AT TAU
72 DUE TO INCREASED OUTFLOW DURING ITS INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG
WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS ARE
SPLIT WITH JGSM, NOGAPS, AND GFDN DEVIATING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE RECURVATURE POINT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL 72
HOURS OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE EXTREME TRACK SOLUTIONS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LLCC REFORMATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY END OF FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THERE
IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST MAINLY
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LATERAL SPEED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 20W - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 30, 2012 11:15 pm

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 010401
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST MON OCT 1 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W MOVING ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN CNMI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PAGAN...AGRIHAN AND ALAMAGAN IN THE NORTHERN CNMI.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...AGRIHAN AND
ALAMAGAN IN THE NORTHERN CNMI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.8 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
55 MILES SOUTH OF PAGAN
105 MILES SOUTH OF AGRIHAN
150 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND
275 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH
AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FORWARD SPEED AND CURVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOCATED NORTHEAST CLOCKWISE THROUGH SOUTHWEST. TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT.

...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND AGRIHAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND AGRIHAN NEED TO COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND TAKE COVER AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. STORMY WEATHER ON THESE ISLANDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. RESIDENTS ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD
AND DRINKING WATER STORED AND AVAILABLE IN A SHELTER LOCATED AWAY
FROM THE SHORE. THE SHELTER SHOULD BE STURDY AND CAPABLE OF
WITHSTANDING STRONG WINDS. ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT
PROPERTIES AGAINST COASTAL INUNDATION...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
BE AWARE OF FALLING PALM FRONDS AND WIND-DRIVEN COCONUTS. STAY OUT
OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SEAS WILL BE ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OF THE ISLANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 40
MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON EXPOSED SHORES
TONIGHT. INUNDATION OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE
ALONG EASTERN EXPOSURES THIS EVENING...AND ALONG EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN EXPOSURES ON TUESDAY MORNING. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE VERY
STRONG AND LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN
POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 900 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON
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#23 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 01, 2012 4:11 am

this is now TS Maliksi per JMA warning.
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:07 am

Another storm in the western pacific, no time to rest. Here is a link to the latest from JMA on this new one. Good news it does not look to hit any large populated areas. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1219l.html
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 9:48 am

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 145.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 145.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.4N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.6N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 25.7N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.5N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 34.9N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 41.9N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 145.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND
021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 10:32 am

Latest Discussion...

WDPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MARGINALLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO APPEAR. THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE
BANDING REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
HAVE YET TO WRAP FULLY INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS ALMOST LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER
THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A
TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AND IS STILL PROVIDING A MODEST INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 20W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC IMPROVES. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITHIN THE RANGE OF 27 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH TAU 72. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AS TS 20W TRACKS TOWARDS THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL STR. TS 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIMETER
OF THE STR. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
CAUSING TS 20W TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 20W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR. INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BEYOND TAU 72, WITH
SSTS REMAINING MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AND WILL QUICKLY COMPLETE
THE PROCESS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS BEYOND TAU 96. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDESPREAD IN THE EARLY TAUS, WITH NGPS AND WBAR
STILL SUGGESTING A WESTWARD TRACK VICE THE FORECASTED RECURVATURE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE INLINE WITH ECMWF AND GFS. BASED ON THE
LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 10:33 am

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 011527
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202012
200 AM CHST TUE OCT 2 2012

...TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN ISLANDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.1
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

50 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
95 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
120 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
290 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND
405 MILES NORTH OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES OUT FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...19.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
145.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 500 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:24 am

Image

very intense convection...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 995.5mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.5 5.6
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#29 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Oct 01, 2012 2:34 pm

Tropical Storm Maliksi

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 9:28 pm

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 143.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 143.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 24.1N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.8N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.2N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 38.1N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 42.2N 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 142.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z
AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:28 pm

Latest Discussion

WDPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A
012035Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
WEAKLY-DEFINED TUTT TO THE NORTH. TS 20W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THE 01/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THIS STR AND ALSO SHOWS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO RE-CURVE TS 20W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND WILL CONTINUE RE-CURVING POLEWARD AROUND THE
STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
RE-CURVE SCENARIO AS WELL AS SHOWING MORE REALISTIC TRACK SPEEDS
AFTER TAU 48 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFDN, WHICH INDICATE
ERRONEOUS DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER
THEY DEVELOP NEAR 15N 140E AROUND TAU 72. DESPITE DEPICTING A
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE OTHER MODELS WHICH RE-CURVE THE
SYSTEM, BOTH NOGAPS AND GFDN MAINTAIN A WEAK 25-35 KNOT SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ROTATE TS 20W CYCLONICALLY AFTER
TAU 48. THIS SCENARIO IS ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY AND IS DISCOUNTED. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72.
THEREFORE, TS 20W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND TAU 48. TS 20W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR TAU 48,
PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 20W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS
SKEWED DUE TO THE GFDN/NOGAPS TRACKS. THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE
PROBLEMS WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEEDS BETWEEN THE RE-CURVE MODELS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:31 pm

Image

maliksi is one large storm affecting guam and the cnmi with her enormous rainbands...
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:36 pm

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 020326
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202012
200 PM CHST TUE OCT 2 2012

...TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) CONTINUING TO THE NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.8
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

220 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
250 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
415 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND
495 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH AND ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...DAMAGING WINDS FROM
THE MONSOON SURGE EXTEND OUT TO 200 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...20.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
142.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ82 PGUM 020425
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST TUE OCT 2 2012

...TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
CNMI...


.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PAGAN...AGRIHAN AND ALAMAGAN IN THE NORTHERN CNMI.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PAGAN...AGRIHAN AND ALAMAGAN IN THE
NORTHERN CNMI HAS BEEN CANCELED.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.8
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

220 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
250 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
415 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND
495 MILES NORTH OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
DAMAGING WINDS HAVE ENDED ON PAGAN...AGRIHAN AND ALAMAGAN. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

...PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND AGRIHAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (20W) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 15 TO 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF OF 12 TO 15
FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INUNDATION OF UP TO 2
TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN
EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE VERY STRONG AND LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI.

$$

AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:47 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 983.7mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.0 3.0
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:36 pm

Image


45 knots and strengthening slightly is the forecast...a near hit for iwo jima...


WTPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 24.3N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.1N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 33.6N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 38.6N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 141.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND
040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:53 pm

Image

the large size of maliksi is preventing faster intensification...
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:30 am

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 26.0N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 31.0N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.6N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 41.7N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 142.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTH-
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030600Z IS 18 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND
040900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Meow

#38 Postby Meow » Wed Oct 03, 2012 5:48 am

Why don’t you fix the title? It has been a STS for almost one day! :grr:
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Meow

#39 Postby Meow » Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:07 am

This STS may become a powerful extratropical cyclone.

Image

STS 1219 (MALIKSI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 3 October 2012

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N28°05'(28.1°)
E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E700km(375NM)
W280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°55'(33.9°)
E144°05'(144.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N39°10'(39.2°)
E148°25'(148.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 60km/h(32kt)
Central pressure 976hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:24 am

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 28.0N 142.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 142.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 33.7N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 39.0N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 42.9N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 143.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Latest Discussion...


WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ISOLATED TO THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
SOME SPARSE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IS INCREASINGLY STARTING
TO LOOK EXTRATROPICAL. A 030812Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS. TS 20W IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER- LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL OFFSET THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 20W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECASTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND TS 20W WILL BE AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36 BEING FULLY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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