WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

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Meow

WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Meow » Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:43 am

Image

East of Vietnam.
Last edited by Meow on Wed Oct 03, 2012 5:48 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:03 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8N 111.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING LLCC, WITH A
RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION. AN OLDER ASCAT PASS INDICATED
WINDS WERE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS CREATING LOW TO MODERATE VWS OVER THE LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. BASED ON
THE RECENT FLARE OF CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPING LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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#3 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:57 am

Now it is a tropical depression, and it may become a tropical storm within 24 hours.

Image

TD
Issued at 13:35 UTC, 29 September 2012

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°30'(13.5°)
E112°55'(112.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E112°10'(112.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:36 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
111.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.5E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTHEAST HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS EMBEDDED ALONG A NARROW REFLECTION OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 07
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS MINIMAL WESTWARD
OUTFLOW. A FEW NUMERIC MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM BUT HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. WITH THE ABSENCE OF A
CLEARLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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#5 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:40 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
113.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED, BROADLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS MINIMAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW. A FEW
NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM BUT HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS
TO THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
INDICATED WINDS WERE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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#6 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 30, 2012 9:12 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

Image


WTPN22 PGTW 301200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300152Z SEP 12//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 300200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 185 NM RADIUS OF 15.1N 113.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301132Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
113.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING OVER A
QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT
07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS IMPROVING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WITH A POLEWARD CHANNEL STARTING TO DEVELOP. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS WERE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR
THE CENTER, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN A FAVORABLE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 150.7E.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 30, 2012 10:34 am

Image
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#8 Postby Meow » Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:38 am

It is now Tropical Storm Gaemi.

Image

TS 1220 (GAEMI)
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 1 October 2012

<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°00'(17.0°)
E114°50'(114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW220km(120NM)
SE170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°30'(16.5°)
E115°30'(115.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E115°35'(115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
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#9 Postby Meow » Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:43 am

Also TD 21W from the JTWC.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301152Z SEP 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.7N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.2N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.7N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.3N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.0N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.9N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 114.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 301151Z SEP 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN22 PGTW 301200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 10:31 am

First Discussion on our 21st tropical cyclone of the season...


WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING BAND
OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF
MULTIPLE WEAKER CIRCULATIONS LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE IMAGERY AND IS FOCUSED ON THE
PRIMARY CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND AN OLDER 0451Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING
RAIN-FLAGGED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHWARD AS IT HAS CONSOLIDATED, BUT IS CURRENTLY IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT
THE AREA (30 DEGREES CELSIUS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE STR THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AND MOVES EASTWARD, THE STR
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
AND WILL START TO TRACK TD 21W WESTWARD BY TAU 36 TO 48. INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE SLOWLY DUE TO FAVORABLE SSTS, AND A STEADY EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS HINDERED BY THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATING
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INTENSITY WILL STEADILY
BUILD BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, HOWEVER IN THE EARLY TIMEFRAME
THERE IS A LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT WITH CAPTURE BY THE STR. AS THIS IS
THE FIRST FORECAST, AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY
DEVELOPMENT.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 1:13 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1008.7mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2012 1:36 pm

its now having that cyclonic look..
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#13 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Oct 01, 2012 2:38 pm

Tropical Storm Gaemi (what a weird name, how do you even say that?)

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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 9:29 pm

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 115.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 115.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.0N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.7N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.3N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.0N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.1N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.6N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.3N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 115.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND
030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 9:50 pm

Image

big burst of convection...
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:30 pm

Latest Discussion...

WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IS LIKELY A RESULT OF INCREASING PRESSURE DUE
TO NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CHINA. A 020028Z SSMIS IMAGE PROVIDES
SOLID EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BOTH INTENSIFIED AND TRACKED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS; THIS IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT DATA AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THE 01/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF TS 21W CAUSED BY THE
DEEP, BROAD MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG WESTERLIES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS 25N.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA
PROVIDING A STRONG WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. IN GENERAL, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THE
SOUTHWARD DRIFT THEN ACCELERATION WESTWARD. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO
THE ERRATIC MOTION AND WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 21W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 108 ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST OF VIETNAM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AND THE
EXACT WESTWARD TRACK. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH TAU 120.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:46 pm

Image

gaemi may be stronger than 35 knots...


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 999.5mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.5
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:31 am

looks like an intense system heading for Vietnam...while the Philippines is getting a serious break from serious landfalls ( still no typhoon landfall as of now)..let's see if this last quarter will bring some surprise
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#19 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:59 am

TS Gaemi Warning #5

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.0N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.7N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.4N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.4N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.7N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.5N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.7N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 116.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image
Last edited by Hurricane_Luis on Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Meow

Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Meow » Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:08 pm

mrbagyo wrote:looks like an intense system heading for Vietnam...while the Philippines is getting a serious break from serious landfalls ( still no typhoon landfall as of now)..let's see if this last quarter will bring some surprise

Wow only Kai-tak made landfall over the Philippines when it was a tropical storm... But I hope there will not be Washi-like storms to affect Mindanao again.
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