ATL: OSCAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: OSCAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:22 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209302321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012093018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012093018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 290W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113796&hilit=&p=2278200#p2278200
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#2 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:28 pm

Models have been on and off with this one. Dry air seems to be a bit of an inhibitor but it has a nice moisture field.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:29 pm

Low latitud low pressure that if can stay low may reach the Caribbean but is an uphill thing as climo doesn't favor that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:Low latitud low pressure that if can stay low,it may reach the Caribbean.

Waouw, that was fast. Always suspicious even we're the latest day of September. Let's keep an eye on this in case of. That won't be bad thing if it can bring some needed water in the EC islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:41 pm

8 PM TWO.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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#6 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:45 pm

8 PM TWD.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 302340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
18N25W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S
CALE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N23W TO 12N29W.
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#7 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:01 pm

Hm...Nadine hangs around until the next system forms? That means sometime in the next 4 days (roughly) this will become a TD or TS...if that holds true!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:08 pm

Very, very slim chance of anything reaching the Caribbean from the eastern Atlantic at this point. There just isn't any significant ridge to the north to keep it moving west. In fact, by the time it reaches 40W there's a GIANT low pressure area/trof to its north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:37 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2012100100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 300W, 25, 1008, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2012 9:27 pm

Cloudsat for 96L.

Image
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#11 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 30, 2012 9:53 pm

Climo says this has virtually a zero chance of making it to the CONUS. The latest formation of a TD+ east of 50W that later made it to the CONUS was 9/25. Of course, the current and forecasted setup gives it virtually no chance as well.
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#12 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 01, 2012 5:31 am

2 AM TWO, up to 20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:37 am

From 8 AM Discussion:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:39 am

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:38 am

12z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2012100112, , BEST, 0, 118N, 322W, 25, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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#16 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:47 am

The last storm to form east of the Lesser Antilles in October was Tomas in 2010, which caused enough damage to get retired. In the preceding two years, there was Henri in 09 and Nana in 08, which were very short-lived storms in the deep tropics in the month.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 10:20 am

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of 96L.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land

A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 12:36 pm

Up to 40%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 1:56 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012100118, , BEST, 0, 124N, 332W, 25, 1008, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby OURAGAN » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:03 pm

Best track:AL, 96, 2012100118, , BEST 9,8 N, 35W, 25, 1008, LO.This position is far away SW to the 18Z point
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