ATL: OSCAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:31 pm

OURAGAN wrote:Best track:AL, 96, 2012100118, , BEST 9,8 N, 35W, 25, 1008, LO.This position is far away SW to the 18Z point

Yes,from the original 18z plot of 12.4N, 33.2W is a big difference that may help it to get stronger than anticipated as it may have more time in favorable conditions.
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#22 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:47 pm

What is the 8 pm going to say? Another 10% increase? I can't wait! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#23 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:57 pm

UP TO 60%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012356
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re:

#24 Postby greenkat » Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:11 pm

brunota2003 wrote:What is the 8 pm going to say? Another 10% increase? I can't wait! :lol:


Looks like you were right 8-)
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Hope this helped ;)

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Re: Re:

#25 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:12 pm

greenkat wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:What is the 8 pm going to say? Another 10% increase? I can't wait! :lol:


Looks like you were right 8-)


You mean 20% increase. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:03 pm

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012100200, , BEST, 0, 99N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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Re:

#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 9:54 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:The last storm to form east of the Lesser Antilles in October was Tomas in 2010, which caused enough damage to get retired. In the preceding two years, there was Henri in 09 and Nana in 08, which were very short-lived storms in the deep tropics in the month.


Tomas was a freak of nature for late October. That and Hazel (1954) are the only storms I can think of in October that moved westward into the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#28 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 01, 2012 10:10 pm

ASCAT pass that is a bit old in timeframe as it was made around 7:30 PM EDT.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 6:44 am

Up to 70%

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:15 am

Almost at TD status.

02/1200 UTC 12.0N 38.4W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:44 am

brunota2003 look what is going to 96L. :)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 02 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. AL96
FLIGHT ONE --NA872--
A. 05/0000Z
B. NA872 0196L INVEST
C. 04/1030Z
D. 20.5N 40.5W
E. 04/1500Z TO 05/0500Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
G. ASYMETRIC BUTTERFLY PATTERN.TOTAL OF 78
SONDES TO BE DROPPED

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#32 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:47 am

May briefly develop but should be accelerating out to the NNE-NE by Friday and merging with a cold front around 35W. Hopefully, it won't get named, though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#33 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:52 am

cycloneye wrote:brunota2003 look what is going to 96L. :)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 02 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. AL96
FLIGHT ONE --NA872--
A. 05/0000Z
B. NA872 0196L INVEST
C. 04/1030Z
D. 20.5N 40.5W
E. 04/1500Z TO 05/0500Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
G. ASYMETRIC BUTTERFLY PATTERN.TOTAL OF 78
SONDES TO BE DROPPED

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

WRONG STORM!!! At least Nadine is formed! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#34 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:10 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:brunota2003 look what is going to 96L. :)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 02 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. AL96
FLIGHT ONE --NA872--
A. 05/0000Z
B. NA872 0196L INVEST
C. 04/1030Z
D. 20.5N 40.5W
E. 04/1500Z TO 05/0500Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
G. ASYMETRIC BUTTERFLY PATTERN.TOTAL OF 78
SONDES TO BE DROPPED

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

WRONG STORM!!! At least Nadine is formed! :lol:

this for 96l http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml
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#35 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:23 pm

INVEST 96L, May become a TD in next Advisory

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:35 pm

2 PM TWO at 70%

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#37 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:02 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2012100218, , BEST, 0, 137N, 389W, 25, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#38 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:11 pm

Looks like a TD to me now. Won't last more than about 72 hrs, though.
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#39 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:29 pm

It's got that tumblweed look to it and well on its way to developing, however, looks like this one has already started its recurvature into the Atlantic graveyard and will be of no threat to the Caribbean islands or the United States. Consequently we see just about no interest on this board for this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#40 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:24 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:WRONG STORM!!! At least Nadine is formed! :lol:

this for 96l http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

I know :lol: Yesterday I was wondering if they were going to fly again, preferably into Nadine (she has an eye feature, would be nice to get some real data). So I'm saying they're flying into the wrong storm :lol: At least Nadine is currently formed.
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