ATL: OSCAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#41 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:59 pm

96L is getting that look....but, had better hurry up as there is a bunch of shear dead ahead captain.....MGC
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Re:

#42 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 6:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:It's got that tumblweed look to it and well on its way to developing, however, looks like this one has already started its recurvature into the Atlantic graveyard and will be of no threat to the Caribbean islands or the United States. Consequently we see just about no interest on this board for this system.


If this would be in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean,it would have over 50 pages by now. If anyone is a Tropical Weather fan, you would follow this open sea system all the way like right now with Nadine.
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Re: Re:

#43 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 02, 2012 6:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:
gatorcane wrote:It's got that tumblweed look to it and well on its way to developing, however, looks like this one has already started its recurvature into the Atlantic graveyard and will be of no threat to the Caribbean islands or the United States. Consequently we see just about no interest on this board for this system.


If this would be in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean,it would have over 50 pages by now. If anyone is a Tropical Weather fan, you would follow this open sea system all the way.

Man no one follows EPac as well. Maybe if people took fish storms seriously our knowledge about hurricanes would increase more, no?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#44 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 6:53 pm

Up to 80%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#45 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 6:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 80%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Which means that Nadine's time is about up...poor Nadine! :lol:
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Re: Re:

#46 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:
gatorcane wrote:It's got that tumblweed look to it and well on its way to developing, however, looks like this one has already started its recurvature into the Atlantic graveyard and will be of no threat to the Caribbean islands or the United States. Consequently we see just about no interest on this board for this system.


If this would be in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean,it would have over 50 pages by now. If anyone is a Tropical Weather fan, you would follow this open sea system all the way like right now with Nadine.


You know I will be, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:09 pm

Windsat pass made at 4:32 PM EDT.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#48 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:13 pm

This one, btw, reminds me of a lot of some westPac Tcs in that there is a large arc of strong shear ahead of it but that shear zone is moving northwestward along with it so that instead of being a problem it's actually causing really good outflow around the western and northern sides. It is also a very large system like many westPac storms. Let's see if this has an easier time developing since it has better symmetry than a lot of the other early-stage TCs we saw out there this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:26 pm

Great structure. Renumber in an hour or two or they wait until the morning?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#50 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:31 pm

:uarrow: This is a tough one. I think they'll wait until late tonight / tomorrow morning since it still looks a little ragged and it's not near any land. But it could go either way. For sure by tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:56 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2012100300, , BEST, 0, 144N, 393W, 30, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:13 pm

No need to rush when they are far from land anyway though.
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#53 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:33 pm

There just isn't much there on that windsat pass, is there? Granted, 25% of the barbs are coded as possibly rain contaminated.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#54 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:41 pm

I'm betting on a morning upgrade...if the NHC decides to do so......MGC
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Re:

#55 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:14 pm

brunota2003 wrote:There just isn't much there on that windsat pass, is there? Granted, 25% of the barbs are coded as possibly rain contaminated.


Yeah. It is most important that the southwest side is not closed, although that was from 4:30 this afternoon. As hard as it is to tell, it looks like it may have closed off now, or will overnight, and certainly convection has been persistent enough that I still think they'll call it tomorrow morning. Doesn't have any negatives - even the shear zone, as I noted before, seems to be moving ahead of it at the same speed that it is moving. It has really nice symmetry and outflow, especially considering how large the circulation is.
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#56 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:31 am

It doesn't look like anything on the WINDSAT. Pretty looking cloud structure though. It might be too large to hold together. Everything else has been pretty hostile in the deep tropics this year.... does anyone think it'll survive up beyond 20N-25N?
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#57 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:06 am

Still at 80%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:41 am

Up to 90%

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:30 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al152012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210031423
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#60 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:35 am

I was just about to say that it looks less organized than yesterday and I don't think it should be upgraded due to a general lack of any significant convection and an elongated LLC...
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