ATL: OSCAR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:42 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 41.5W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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#62 Postby HenkL » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:57 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT WED 03 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-137

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: GLOBAL HAWK MISSION SCHEDULED FOR A 04/1030Z
TAKEOFF CANCELED BY NASA-NOAA AT 03/0150Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#63 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:58 am

wxman57 wrote:I was just about to say that it looks less organized than yesterday and I don't think it should be upgraded due to a general lack of any significant convection and an elongated LLC...


Then it's a good thing you didn't say it... :wink: :lol:
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#64 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:06 pm

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:44 pm

It remains as TD 15 on 18z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 418W, 30, 1008, TD

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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#66 Postby KBBOCA » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:01 pm

Not expected to last very long...

LOL. Who knows what that means given Nadine? not very long by NORMAL standards, or not very long by NADINE standards!
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#67 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:39 pm

It'll be gone by this time Friday.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#68 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 7:46 pm

No change on 00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 191N, 423W, 30, 1007, TD

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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#69 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 7:53 pm

The pressure dropped a millibar :lol:
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#70 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:30 pm

Hello Oscar

ATCF updated the 00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS
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#71 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:43 pm

WOO! No TD only for life!
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#72 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:57 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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#73 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 10:00 pm

According to the discussion it appears to be a TS. The NHC said that the intensity of Oscar might even be consverative despite the shear. Won't last long either way though.

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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#74 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 10:57 pm

00:30 UTC ASCAT pass...the barbs east of the center are colored for 35 knots, and I do see at least one 35 knot barb.

Image
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#75 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:06 am

The more frequently systems like this get named, the more I wonder why systems like this year's pre-season Azores low (92L I believe) weren't named.
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#76 Postby Chickenzilla » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:30 pm

Multiple vortexes?
Image
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#77 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:52 pm

18z Best Track at 40kts.

AL, 15, 2012100418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 414W, 40, 1000, TS
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#78 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:26 pm

I'm not too certain that Oscar will be gone by 8 am tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#79 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:35 pm

00z Best Track up to 45kts.

AL, 15, 2012100500, , BEST, 0, 217N, 407W, 45, 998, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#80 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:37 pm

Hilarious sentence by forecaster Blake at 11 PM discussion. :)

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING.
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