ATL: OSCAR - Models

[Gustywind]

We should have to wait for the first plots? Any info about that?

[cycloneye]

First plots go away from Caribbean to the fishes.

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598
WHXX01 KWBC 302327
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2327 UTC SUN SEP 30 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120930 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120930  1800   121001  0600   121001  1800   121002  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.9N  29.0W   10.1N  30.4W   10.9N  32.0W   12.0N  33.9W
BAMD     9.9N  29.0W   10.4N  30.6W   11.3N  32.1W   12.5N  33.6W
BAMM     9.9N  29.0W   10.3N  30.7W   11.1N  32.4W   12.1N  34.1W
LBAR     9.9N  29.0W   10.3N  31.1W   11.3N  33.5W   12.4N  35.9W
SHIP        20KTS          22KTS          27KTS          33KTS
DSHP        20KTS          22KTS          27KTS          33KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121002  1800   121003  1800   121004  1800   121005  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  36.0W   16.5N  40.5W   19.7N  42.8W   22.6N  38.6W
BAMD    14.0N  35.0W   17.1N  37.7W   20.4N  37.1W   25.6N  28.6W
BAMM    13.3N  35.8W   15.9N  39.2W   18.9N  40.8W   23.1N  35.6W
LBAR    13.7N  38.3W   15.6N  42.5W   17.0N  45.0W   19.2N  44.0W
SHIP        38KTS          47KTS          50KTS          48KTS
DSHP        38KTS          47KTS          50KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.9N LONCUR =  29.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =   9.7N LONM12 =  27.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =   9.5N LONM24 =  25.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

00z plots.

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WHXX01 KWBC 010029
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC MON OCT 1 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20121001 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121001  0000   121001  1200   121002  0000   121002  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N  30.0W   10.4N  31.7W   11.5N  33.5W   12.6N  35.5W
BAMD    10.0N  30.0W   10.5N  31.9W   11.5N  33.5W   12.7N  35.1W
BAMM    10.0N  30.0W   10.6N  31.9W   11.6N  33.8W   12.8N  35.6W
LBAR    10.0N  30.0W   10.6N  32.1W   11.6N  34.4W   12.7N  36.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121003  0000   121004  0000   121005  0000   121006  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  37.8W   17.0N  42.1W   19.4N  44.1W   21.3N  40.9W
BAMD    14.1N  36.4W   16.8N  38.7W   19.1N  38.3W   22.0N  32.7W
BAMM    14.1N  37.3W   16.9N  40.4W   19.7N  41.1W   22.9N  36.0W
LBAR    13.9N  39.2W   15.6N  43.5W   16.9N  45.7W   19.3N  44.4W
SHIP        47KTS          54KTS          53KTS          52KTS
DSHP        47KTS          54KTS          53KTS          52KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  30.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =   9.8N LONM12 =  28.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =   9.6N LONM24 =  26.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

The 00z ECMWF develops 96L into a TD/weak Tropical Storm in 96 hours.



GFS develops 96L in 72 hours.

[brunota2003]

Would be the perfect time to relieve Nadine of her tropical Atlantic duties...she deserves 6 years of rest!

[cycloneye]

The 12z runs of GFS and ECMWF continue to develop 96L into a TD/weak Tropical Storm in a recurving track.

[cycloneye]

The updated 18z plots has SHIP going very bullish now.

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WHXX01 KWBC 012159
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2159 UTC MON OCT 1 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20121001 1800 UTC
 
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
 121001 1800 121002 0600 121002 1800 121003 0600
 
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 35.0W 10.6N 36.8W 11.6N 38.5W 12.6N 40.1W
BAMD 9.8N 35.0W 10.6N 36.7W 11.5N 38.3W 12.3N 39.7W
BAMM 9.8N 35.0W 10.6N 36.8W 11.6N 38.5W 12.7N 39.9W
LBAR 9.8N 35.0W 10.6N 37.5W 11.6N 40.2W 12.5N 42.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS
 
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
 121003 1800 121004 1800 121005 1800 121006 1800
 
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 41.4W 16.5N 42.9W 21.0N 37.8W 27.8N 25.7W
BAMD 13.0N 40.8W 14.2N 42.3W 16.2N 41.6W 17.6N 40.8W
BAMM 13.6N 41.1W 15.9N 42.1W 19.8N 37.1W 24.7N 26.1W
LBAR 13.6N 45.4W 15.5N 48.7W 18.5N 49.1W 21.9N 46.0W
SHIP 61KTS 78KTS 90KTS 99KTS
DSHP 61KTS 78KTS 90KTS 99KTS
 
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 35.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 32.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 28.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM