ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

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ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:41 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 41.5W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS
FORECAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE WERE CONFLICTING SIGNALS CONCERNING
THE EXISTENCE AND LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A MORE DEFINITIVE
CIRCULATION HAS TAKEN SHAPE...CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS
ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO DEEM THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SINCE A CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
TO TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 320/13 KT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE AND GETS
PICKED UP IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY INCREASING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT...EVERY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HOURS...AND THAT RESULT IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 17.3N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.1N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.6N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 22.2N 41.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 42.0W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DEFINED BY SEVERAL SWIRLS
REVOLVING AROUND A COMMON POINT...WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 80 N MI
TO THE WEST OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 21.2N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 22.9N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:55 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OSCAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH ON
FRIDAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
...EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS MORPHED INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AT
0000 UTC...DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND A 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED SEVERAL
UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT PASS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WITH A CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KT. OSCAR IS ON THE CUSP OF ENTERING AN EVEN HIGHER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT OSCAR OPENING
UP INTO A TROUGH AND THEN LOSING ITS IDENTITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF OSCAR HAS SLOWED SOME IN RECENT HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/10. STEERED BY THE FLOW IN
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...OSCAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS
IT DECELERATES FURTHER. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
EMBEDDED IN A STRONG AND DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SHARP RECURVATURE AND A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRACK SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
RIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.3N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.5N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 22.0N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 23.8N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:25 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 42.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...OSCAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY LATE
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO
15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35
KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE
LATEST SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS OSCAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING OSCAR OPENING INTO A
TROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OSCAR IS QUITE BROAD WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS
EVIDENT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. THE LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING OSCAR TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. BY FRIDAY...A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS OSCAR...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL
LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 20.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 21.1N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 22.7N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 24.9N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

#5 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:19 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 41.7W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE OSCAR DISSIPATES IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE DEEP
CONVECTION ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DESPITE THE
HOSTILE CONDITIONS...OSCAR HAS STRENGTHENED...AND A 1300 UTC ASCAT
PASS INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 40 KT. THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRONG SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING OSCAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR OSCAR TO
DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS WHEN IT GETS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT...
MATCHING THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

OSCAR HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
020/8 KT. THE STORM IS APPROACHING STRONGER MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 20.6N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 21.8N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 23.8N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 41.0W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE OSCAR
DISSIPATES IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

OSCAR IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. SEVERAL LOW CLOUD
SWIRLS ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THAT CENTER. SINCE THE STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS
NOT CHANGED SINCE THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 40 KT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. OSCAR IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS
NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL PROVE TO BE RIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10 KT. OSCAR HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANTICIPATED...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPEED UP AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
DIGGING DEEP-LAYER LOW. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION...EVEN IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 21.3N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.0N 35.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 40.2W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE
OSCAR DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

OSCAR IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SYSTEM HAS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...HAS FORMED A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS HAD A SIZABLE AREA OF WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT ABOUT 90 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT
AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT. DESPITE OSCAR MOVING
FASTER OVER WARM WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
SAME TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT
24H AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/10 KT. THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOON
TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD ABSORB OSCAR IN ABOUT A DAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:46 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 38.9W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE OSCAR
DISSIPATES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. A
DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 998.7 MB...
29.50 INCHES...A FEW HOURS AGO.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012

OSCAR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
DUE TO CONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE OSCAR IS ABSORBED BY AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OSCAR IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OSCAR
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 23.0N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.5N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:53 am

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012

...OSCAR NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 37.1W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF OSCAR WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.1 WEST...MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OSCAR ARE
NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRLE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

REMNANTS OF OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012

VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGES AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT OSCAR NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION IS LINEAR AND IS LIMITED TO
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. ON THIS BASIS...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF OSCAR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 24.1N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF OSCAR
12H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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