WPAC: PRAPIROON - Extratropical

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Hurricane_Luis
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#61 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Oct 13, 2012 4:59 am

Typhoon Prapiroon

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#62 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:34 am

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.9N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.3N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.4N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.1N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.2N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. //
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR
25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INCREASED TO COMPENSATE A
DIMINISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SEMI-CLOSED EYE FEATURE ON A 131108Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 22W IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF WEAK
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF A POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, WEAKENING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SLOWER STORM
MOTION FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72, OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS UNCHANGED.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STEERS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NER. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
WILL ASSUME STEERING, SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWING AND DEFLECTING THE SYSTEM
IN A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. AFTER TAU 48, AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE
TY 22W TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. INCREASED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, ALL THE NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SLOW DOWN, A POLEWARD DEFLECTION, AND ACCELERATED
RECURVATURE, ALBEIT AT VARYING DEGREES. IT IS THE VARIANCE THAT GIVES
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AS THE STEERING RIDGE ERODES AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS SSTS DECREASE AND VWS
INCREASES. BY TAU 120 TY PRAPIROON WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE BUT AT
DIFFERENT TRACK SPEEDS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS LOW AFTER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS. //
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 11:19 pm

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 22.2N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.5N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.9N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.4N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.3N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.0N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.3N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 32.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 130.6E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED UNDER A WEAKLY DEVELOPING BAND OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE BROADER OUTER BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. A 132341Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS THE EYEWALL
HAS BEEN BREAKING DOWN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND
OBSERVED IN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD ALL RANGING
FROM 65 TO 75 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 22W IS LOCATED
IN A REGION OF WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN IS CREATING PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
JAPAN IS HELPING SUPPORT A RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY
22W IS SLOWLY DRIFTING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE NER AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARDS
TY 22W. THE TRACK HAS BEEN KEPT SLOW WITH AN EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AROUND
TAU 36. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH REORIENTS THE STR HELPING TO SHIFT
THE TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE STR AXIS. THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRACKS TOWARDS THE STR AXIS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT
INCREASE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 AS INCREASED VENTILATION INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW HELPS TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE VWS OVER THE
LLCC ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, STIFLING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL.
C. AS THE STEERING RIDGE ERODES AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE AND VWS INCREASES. BY TAU 120 TY PRAPIROON WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED DRASTICALLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, WITH ECMF, NGPS, JGSM, AND GFS SHOWING A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WBAR AND GFDN CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK. LOOKING AT THE MODEL FIELDS SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING STR, HOWEVER THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERS THE SEVERITY OF
THIS TURN BASED ON THE DRASTIC SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST KEEPS TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS AND FASTER IN
THE LATER TAUS BASED ON THE STRONG SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE TO THE
WEST. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AND BASED ON THE RECENT LARGE VARIATION IN GUIDANCE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#64 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:10 am

euro showing a direct hit for okinawa :roll:
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#65 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:11 am

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.7N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.4N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.4N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 30.2N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 131.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z
AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION EVEN AS THE EYE HAS BECOME OPEN AND RAGGED. ADDITIONALLY,
THE STORM MOTION HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
SEMI-CLOSED EYE FEATURE ON A 141057Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 141230Z
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 22W IS IN A
REGION OF WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 22W IS SLOWLY DRIFTING IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF THE NER AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST
SLOWLY BUILDS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AFTER TAU 36 AND REORIENTS THE TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE STR AXIS. DURING AND
SHORTLY AFTER THE RECURVATURE, THE INTENSITY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW BROUGHT ON BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS,
HOWEVER, WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS VWS SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS A
TRACK REVERSAL THEN A WESTWARD POLEWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS APPARENTLY DUE TO EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PRAPIROON IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND VWS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. BY TAU 120 TY PRAPIROON WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY RE-CURVES THE
VORTEX NORTHEASTWARD BUT AT WIDELY VARYING TRACK SPEEDS. BASED ON THE
LARGE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE 120-HOUR
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#66 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:15 am

Still a large dis connect with the agencies on this storm. It surely has been a hard one to predict.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlCPuSiq4iI&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#67 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:17 am

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#68 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:19 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Still a large dis connect with the agencies on this storm. It surely has been a hard one to predict.



wow! looking very professional over there...keep up the good work!
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#69 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:21 am

Typhoon Prapiroon

Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#70 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:22 am

Image

the eye is huge! okinawa could fit right inside...
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#71 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:51 pm

i'm liking that eye... :eek:

Image

anyway, the system has lost a little bit of latitude in the past 3 hours and may be moving SW-ward... JMA does seem to get a better handling on the forecast compared to JTWC...

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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#72 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:30 pm

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.5N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.1N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.7N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.6N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 31.0N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 35.2N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 131.2E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z
AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 150300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON)
/WARNING NR 31 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS
PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOW FULLY
WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND MSI SHOWING THE
LLCC HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT TRACK SOUTHWARD, AND IS INDICATIVE OF THE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE STEERING INFLUENCES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON 4.5/4.5 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, WHICH INDICATE THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION HAS
STARTED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
LLCC WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
BASED ON THE RECENT SOUTHWARD TRACK BY THE SYSTEM, WITH THE FORECAST
KEEPING THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS TS 23W TRACKS AROUND THE STR, WHICH IS LIKELY CAUSING THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OBSERVED. AS TS 23W MOVES NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND BEGIN
INFLUENCING TY 22W AROUND TAU 24 TO 36. THIS WILL BRING THE TRACK
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH THE STR BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE BEYOND TAU 36. BY TAU 48 THE STR WILL CARRY THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27
DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH TAU 36. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72, THE SSTS WILL
STEADILY DECREASE AS TY 22W MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY,
THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE THE VWS OVER THE
LLCC, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PRAPIROON IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS SSTS DECREASE AND VWS INCREASES. BY TAU
120 TY PRAPIROON WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG WESTWARD TRACK IN THE INITIAL 36 HOURS
BUT ALL AGREE WITH THE TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN HELD STEADY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THE TRACK WAS KEPT TO THE EAST OF
THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE AIDS. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED STORM MOTION INDICATED IN
PARA 2, LINES 3 AND 4.//
NNNN
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Meow

#73 Postby Meow » Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:57 am

Isn’t Prapiroon dying? :eek:

Image
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#74 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:58 am

Typhoon Prapiroon :uarrow:

Could be, but it is hanging on for dear life

Image
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#75 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:16 pm

I'll clue in on the forecasting for this season (2012):

If it is south of Okinawa, and has a chance of hitting the island, it will make a direct landfall on them...or so it seems, this year!
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#76 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:42 am

prapiroon continues moving to the southwest bringing the core ever closer to okinawa...landfall or not, okinawa is in for more heavy rains and strong winds again!
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#77 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:28 am

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 037
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.8N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 25.6N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 27.3N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 30.2N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 33.1N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 129.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z
AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING
NR 37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS DESPITE
MAINTENANCE OF NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR INTRUSION AS EVIDENCED IN THE 16/00Z NAZE AND MINAMIDAITO-
JIMA SOUNDINGS. DESPITE THE LOSS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE SYSTEM
HAS RETAINED EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY-WRAPPED BANDING AND A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY (160847Z SSMIS). ADDITIONALLY. THE RECENT ASCAT IMAGE AND
SSMIS WIND PRODUCT SHOW 40-45 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED EAST OF THE
CENTER, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, WHICH SUGGESTS
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE TOO LOW AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
STILL 60-65 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND RECENT MOTION, WHICH IS BOLSTERED BY THE 160847Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE 16/00Z
500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTED BY A BROAD
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER KOREA. THIS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CHINA, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY RE-CURVE MECHANISM AS WELL AS
SUPPORT A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER JAPAN. THE STR IS REFLECTED
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IS
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN JAPAN AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN TS 22W AND THE
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN JAPAN, WHICH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER OKINAWA.
B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH BUT SHOULD THEN TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 12. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 40NM
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO REMAINED
CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS, THEREFORE, POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TS
22W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 60 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO
THE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 48,
TS 22W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 96 AND WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE ENTIRE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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greenkat
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#78 Postby greenkat » Tue Oct 16, 2012 7:39 pm

Prapiroon now a STS.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

Hope this helped ;)

RobWESTPACWX
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Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm

#79 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:15 am

Despite being weaker this storm is still packing quite a punch, 122kph winds have been recorded in Okinawa, plus 78mm in one hour in Kyushu. On top of the storm though a strong front is blowing across Japan carrying with it severe weather. One person was struck by lightning in western Japan today putting them in critical condition at the hospital.

I made a video talking about all of this below. But also just a note I am changing my youtube channel so please subscribe to this channel if you wish.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ-HTOVjl2s[/youtube]
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm

#80 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:27 pm

Good Riddance, looks like today it should start to get a move on.

Image
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM


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