WPAC: PRAPIROON - Extratropical

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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 07, 2012 1:53 pm

Very interesting read...


WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (PRAPIROON)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
700NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT INTO THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 071039Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION WESTWARD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 26N 148E. THE 07/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ASIA WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NEAR 90E AND ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER EASTERN
JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE 200MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLAR JET
OVER CENTRAL ASIA EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH KOREA AND CENTRAL
HONSHU WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RYUKYUS;
UPPER-AIR DATA AT MINAMIDAITO-JIMA INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS AT 20-25 KNOTS WHILE NAZE SHOWS 40-50 KNOTS. THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES ARE IMPORTANT FACTORS IN, AND SUPPORT, THE JTWC FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN JAPAN PROPAGATES
EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD
BRIEFLY ALLOWING TD 22W TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AT 06-08 KNOTS
(CLIMATOLOGICALLY SLOW SPEEDS) THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NEAR 90E NOW) DIGS
INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 48 AND TD 22W WILL SLOW TO 02-04
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION; HOWEVER, THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK.
THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY TWO CLUSTERS OF SOLUTIONS: NOGAPS AND WBAR
SHOW A VERY ABRUPT, UNREALISTIC CLOCKWISE LOOP AROUND 135-137E AND
LIKELY ARE OVER-REACTING TO THE TROUGH/WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE (JGSM, ECMWF, GFS AND EGRR) IS MORE
REALISTIC AND DEPICTS A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER GROUP AND IS
POSITIONED EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NOGAPS
AND WBAR. AS A SIDE NOTE, THE 07/12Z NOGAPS TRACKER SHOWS A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 BUT STILL SHOWS THE ABRUPT LOOP. GFDN
HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE SYSTEM INTENSITY AND IS TRUNCATED. TD 22W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72 UNDER IMPROVING UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AND TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO LOOP OR BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS
WELL. THIS MOTION IS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT, STRONG (AND ZONAL)
WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVER KOREA AND JAPAN AS WELL AS
THE LACK OF A DEEP, DYNAMIC TROUGH AFTER TAU 96. TD 22W WILL LIKELY
RE-CURVE SLOWLY UNTIL IT TRACKS NORTH OF 28-30N. FORTUNATELY, DUE TO
THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW, THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT KOREA AND
JAPAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OKINAWA. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE INCREASED EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (GALE-FORCE) OVER
OKINAWA DUE TO AN ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN TD 22W AND AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A DIRECT HIT ON OKINAWA APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
THIS POINT. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND WILL
PEAK AT 105 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
DUE, AGAIN, TO THE LACK OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER TAU 48. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT THE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.//
NNNN
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#22 Postby Dave C » Sun Oct 07, 2012 2:23 pm

When the storms outflow is grabbed by the westerlies there could be some bigtime deepening, talk about an outflow channel!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:22 pm

JTWC finally upgrades prapiroon

Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:26 pm

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1221 (PRAPIROON)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 8 October 2012
<Analyses at 08/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°50'(17.8°)
E135°05'(135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E132°20'(132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E131°20'(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 11/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E130°20'(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

Image
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#25 Postby greenkat » Sun Oct 07, 2012 9:05 pm

It astonishes me how completely opposite the general WPac and NAtl seasons have been... :roll: :lol:
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Hope this helped ;)

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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 07, 2012 11:06 pm

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.9N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.9N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.9N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.2N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 135.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z,
081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
670NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072313Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION
WESTWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH RECENT UW-CIMSS AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR
28N 150E. THE 07/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH
OVER ASIA WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 90E AND ANOTHER TROUGH
CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER EASTERN JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE 200MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLAR JET OVER CENTRAL ASIA EXTENDING
EASTWARD OVER SOUTH KOREA AND CENTRAL HONSHU WITH MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RYUKYUS; UPPER-AIR DATA AT MINAMIDAITO-JIMA
INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KNOTS WHILE NAZE SHOWS
40-50 KNOTS. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IMPORTANT FACTORS IN, AND
SUPPORT, THE JTWC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN JAPAN PROPAGATES
EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD
BRIEFLY ALLOWING TS 22W TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AT 03-05 KNOTS
(CLIMATOLOGICALLY SLOW SPEEDS) THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NEAR 90E NOW) DIGS
INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 48 AND TS 22W WILL SLOW TO 02-03
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE
MIDLATITUDE SYNOPTIC SITUATION; HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
POOR AGREEMENT, DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24, AND HAVE BEEN
HIGHLY ERRATIC OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY TWO
CLUSTERS OF SOLUTIONS: NOGAPS, GFDN AND WBAR SHOW A VERY ABRUPT
NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER 24 WHILE GFS, JGSM, EGRR AND ECMWF SHOW A
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 THEN MORE GRADUAL, SLOWER
NORTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 72. IT APPEARS THAT NOGAPS, GFDN AND
WBAR ARE LIKELY OVER-REACTING TO THE TROUGH/WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, JGSM, GFS AND EGRR GROUP AND IS
POSITIONED WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NOGAPS, GFDN
AND WBAR. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72
UNDER IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AND TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO LOOP OR BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS
WELL. THIS MOTION IS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT, STRONG (AND ZONAL)
WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVER KOREA AND JAPAN AS WELL AS
THE LACK OF A DEEP, DYNAMIC TROUGH AFTER TAU 96. TS 22W WILL LIKELY
RE-CURVE SLOWLY UNTIL IT TRACKS NORTH OF 28-30N. FORTUNATELY, DUE TO
THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW, THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT KOREA AND
JAPAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OKINAWA. MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS CONTINUES TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT. IN PARTICULAR, GFS AND
NOGAPS TRACK TS 22W QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH,
WHICH IS UNLIKELY. THEY ALSO TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO THE STR, WHICH
REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RE-CURVE SCENARIO IS NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPICAL RE-CURVE SCENARIO AROUND THE STR INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, WHICH REMAIN ZONAL NORTH OF 28N, BUT RATHER
IS DUE SOLELY TO THE NER. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR
ECMWF, EGRR AND JGSM IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. AFTER TAU 120, THE
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INCREASED EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS (GALE-FORCE) OVER OKINAWA DUE TO AN ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN
TS 22W AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A DIRECT HIT ON
OKINAWA APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND WILL PEAK AT 105 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER
DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE DUE, AGAIN, TO THE LACK OF A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER TAU 48 AND
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE
MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE GENERAL MIDLATITUDE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm

#27 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun Oct 07, 2012 11:33 pm

Models all over the place again, lots of uncertainty, indeed ECMWF 12z run has Prapiroon hitting southern Taiwan in stark contrast to recent GFS runs.
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm

#28 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:28 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Models all over the place again, lots of uncertainty, indeed ECMWF 12z run has Prapiroon hitting southern Taiwan in stark contrast to recent GFS runs.


indeed, major differences with the upper-levels as well...

JTWC explains the scenario really well with their latest prognostics--that was probably the best-written progs i've read from JTWC in a while! :sun:
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:34 am

Image

recurve out to sea?


WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 134.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 134.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.5N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.7N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.9N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.9N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.8N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 133.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN
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#30 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:26 am

Severe Tropical Storm Praprioon

Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:28 pm

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1221 (PRAPIROON)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 October 2012
<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°25'(18.4°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E131°10'(131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E130°05'(130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#32 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:21 pm

Image

our 14th typhoon is here!


WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.1N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.7N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.5N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.8N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.8N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.2N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 132.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#33 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:36 pm

this is the kind of systems i like...showing off a lot of potential but is headed out to sea. :lol: i hope it keeps that way though, a number of typhoons headed towards Japan and Korea for the past few months and it would be hell for these same areas to be affected by this if ever...
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#34 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:43 pm

Image

Image

euro has this recurving but makes a dramatic turn northwest to okinawa.....and it's remnants into japan...
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#35 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:34 am

Tighter banding on microwave... we may see an eye form by tomorrow morning...

Image

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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#36 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 09, 2012 10:17 am

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.0N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.7N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.1N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 131.6E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. //
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM SLOWED DOWN AND GAINED LATITUDE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 090849Z TRMM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD TO REFLECT THE DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEAKENS THE STR. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
UPPER AND LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TY 22W TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PRAPIROON WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST-
WARD AND CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT GETS EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUS WITH A RECURVATURE SCENARIO BUT
HAS SIGNIFICANT TIMING/SPEED DIFFERENCES. THIS FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF
AND GFS WITH A LATER/SLOWER TIMING ON THE RECURVATURE. THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATION IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. //
NNNN
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#37 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:22 am

Typhoon Prapiroon

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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#38 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 09, 2012 9:36 pm

JMA cutting this more north now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#39 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:28 pm

Image

up to 85 knots and forecast to become a category 4!


WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.8N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.7N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.4N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.1N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.5N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 130.7E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z
AND 110300Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITH RECENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO
90 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 5.0/5.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, BUT REFLECTS THE
4.5/4.5 DVORAK FROM KNES AS WELL. STRONG BANDING FEATURES NOW WRAP
COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC, WITH A 092109Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTING THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE LLCC STRUCTURE AND
POSITIONING. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK STEADILY ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL VENTILATION AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS WEAKENING THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72 A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW, SHIFTING THE TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. TRACK SPEEDS WILL REMAIN SLOW AS THE NER BUILDS
TOWARDS THE STR. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PRAPIROON WILL MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (INCREASING VWS AND WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW)
WITH DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE SLIGHT CHANGES WILL
START TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 72, LEADING TO A WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
RECURVATURE SCENARIO IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, HOWEVER THE TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ECMF AND GFS ARE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS, YET APPEAR
TO HAVE THE GREATEST HANDLE ON THE TRACK. THIS IS BASED ON THEIR
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE INITIAL TAUS, WHERE NGPS,
WBAR AND GFDN CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARPER, EARLIER TURN. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMF SOLUTIONS BY KEEPING THE TRACK WEST
OF CONSENSUS AND SLOWER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BASED ON THE
SHIFTING DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE,
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#40 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:41 pm

TPPN12 PGTW 100306

A. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON)

B. 10/0232Z

C. 18.4N

D. 130.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 1.20 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDED A 4.5 DT. MET AND PT INDICATE 5.0. FT BASED ON PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0046Z 18.5N 130.9E MMHS


QUAST
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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