WPAC: PRAPIROON - Extratropical

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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#41 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:04 am

very small eye , just needs to clear out in visible imagery
Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#42 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:19 am

Image

Image
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#43 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:25 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.3N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.8N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.4N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.0N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.3N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.8N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 129.6E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 35 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. //
NNNN
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#44 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Oct 10, 2012 3:50 pm

Warning number 14

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.9N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.6N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.2N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.4N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.7N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.1N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 129.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#45 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:58 pm

Now up to 90 knots!


WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 110018Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON AN
EYE FEATURE IN THE SSMIS IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS BENEATH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
INDICATES A VERY NARROW BAND OF SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF THE SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY COUNTERACTING
THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STEERING INFLUENCES FROM TWO
SEPARATE RIDGES. THE RECENTLY WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE WHILE THE BUILDING NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRIEFLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF TY 22W’S TRACK. BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24 TY 22W
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
WEAKENED STR TO THE EAST AND TAKE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72. TY 22W HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN A AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS,
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN EVENTUAL CURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST, TIMING REMAINS INCONSISTENT BETWEEN MEMBERS. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY EAST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY FAR WESTERN JGSM SOLUTION. FROM TAU 36 THROUGH 72 THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN, WHICH
HAS BEEN THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PRAPIROON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DECREASING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN INTENSITY. SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INCREASES AFTER TAU 72, WITH NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR FAVORING A
FASTER AND MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND JGSM, ECMWF, AND EGRR INDICATING
A SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND TRACK
DURING THE EARLY TAUS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATER TAUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#46 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:21 pm

Image

large ragged eye appearing...


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 979.3mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.3 6.0
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#47 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:50 pm

Image

very large and very powerful prapiroon near okinawa...
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#48 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 12:46 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 963.0mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.7 6.2
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#49 Postby Crostorm » Thu Oct 11, 2012 4:33 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 946.9mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.5 6.0
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#50 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 11, 2012 4:41 am

At least JTWC is confident to say there not confident. From Prog reasoning ( FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK SPEEDS
AMONG MODELS.)
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#51 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:06 am

Image

just shy of becoming our 8th major typhoon of the year!

the turn towards okinawa has started...

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.6N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.1N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.7N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.3N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.5N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.4N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.7N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 128.5E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
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#52 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:48 am

Interesting to see yet again ECMWF forecasting a typhoon of epic proportions north or 22/23N, this seems to be a common problem with the model, totally overdoing storms as they exit the "tropics." Seen that with plenty of storms over the last 2 years.

Prapiroon is looking on the verge of becoming a major to me, if not already. Big spread in forecast tracks between JMA and JTWC, one of the agencies is going to get their fingers burnt for sure!
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#53 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:53 am

WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND AN 111132Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED BANDING CONVECTION AND AN 18NM EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 9O TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE IR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES BENEATH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES. TY 22W IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK MORE POLEWARD DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES. AFTER TAU 12, TY 22W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERN TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU
96. TY 22W WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND REMAIN NEAR 100KTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OFFSETS THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND CONTINUED DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
INCONSISTENT IN THE TIMING BETWEEN MEMBERS, WITH JGSM AND EGRR BOTH
TAKING A SLOWER TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST. GFDN REMAINS THE RIGHT
MOST OUTLIER WITH THE FASTEST TRACK. GFS, NOGAPS AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT AND ARE CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO
THE LARGE VARIANCE IN TIMING AMONG MEMBERS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120
TY 22W WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS. AS
TY 22W SLOWLY GAINS LATITUDE, A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
PREDICTED, ALLOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 120, TY 22W
SHOULD PICK UP SPEED AND TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS THE
STR BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS AFTER TAU 72, WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE RE-ORIENTING STR. MODELS DO SHOW
THIS NORTHWEST TURN TO BE SHORT LIVED AND CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS CONSENSUS
AND DOES NOT MAKE THE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, JUST A SLOW
TRACK POLEWARD, AS DEPICTED IN THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK SPEEDS AND
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#54 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:58 am

Image


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 932.9mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

:double:

although the eye isn't very symmetrical, this might be a precursor of what to come...
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#55 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 11, 2012 11:07 am

Here is my video update for today, lots of info I put in on Prapiroon but also some other severe weather across Japan.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rU1xx2opa5s[/youtube]
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#56 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:51 pm

Ragged eye starting to form

Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#57 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:19 pm

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.3N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.8N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.4N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.0N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.2N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.2N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.8N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 128.9E.
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEAST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN



SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS MADE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TRACKED AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 120006Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE 22W IS LOCATED BENEATH A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 22W HAS NOW TAKEN ON A MORE
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STEERS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF TY PRAPIROON WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. A NORTHERLY TURN IS
EXPECTED NEAR TAU 72 AS THIS STR BUILDS WESTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF JGSM AND EGRR, THE SLOWEST AND LEFTMOST OUTLIERS, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU
72, MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLY AS THE STEERING REGIME
TRANSITIONS. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE NEAR 22 DEGREES NORTH INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER TAU 36. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE JTWC
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UNTIL TAU 72, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STR
TO THE EAST BUILDS WESTWARD AND REORIENTS IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH
DIRECTION. THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AS A VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EMERGES EAST OF JAPAN. NEAR
TAU 120 TY PRAPIROON IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAKE ON A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK AS THE STR ERODES. BY TAU 120, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPREAD UPWARDS OF 500NM, WITH EGRR TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
AFTER TAU 72 AND WBAR INDICATING A CONTINUOUS NORTHEASTERLY TRACK.
MOST MODELS INDICATE A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER TAU 72 IN RESPONSE TO
THE BUILDING STR TO THE EAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS TY
22W SLOWLY GAINS LATITUDE IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 72 REMAINS LOW DUE TO HIGH VARIANCE IN TRACK
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#58 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:21 pm

Image

100 knots! sustained...
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#59 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:01 pm

Typhoon Prapiroon

Image
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon

#60 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:02 pm

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.0N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.6N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.4N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.0N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 28.0N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.0N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 130.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (PRAPIROON) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR
23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 122353Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A LARGE, WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. BOTH THE IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SLIGHT WEAKENING WITH DECREASED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN THE SSMIS IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 22W IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF WEAK (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) SLIGHTLY WEST OF A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
WEAKENING IS EVIDENT AS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF 22W DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED. THIS HAS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTED TO A DECREASE IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. TY 22W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STEERS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF TY 22W WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, TRACKING THE SYSTEM ALONG A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT. AFTER TAU 48, TY 22W IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
EAST WHILE GAINING FORWARD TRACK SPEED. THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE STR WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN
EAST OF JAPAN. DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATUES SHOULD COUNTERACT THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO
MARGINAL VWS, RESULTING IN STEADY TO SLIGHTLY WEAKENING INTENSITIES
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR AND JGSM, WHICH HAVE BOTH
TAKEN A MUCH SLOWER AND ERRATIC TRACK DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BY TAU 48, MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD BUT ARE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 48.
C. AS THE STEERING RIDGE ERODES AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND VWS INCREASES. BY TAU 96 TY 22W WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH DISCREPANCIES
IN BOTH TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION BASED ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE DUE TO THE DECREASING SPREAD BUT
REMAINS LOW AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO HIGH VARIANCE IN TRACK SPEEDS.//
NNNN
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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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