EPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

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Macrocane
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EPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:02 pm

New Invest in the EPAC:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210052122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012100518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962012
EP, 96, 2012100500, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1107W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012100506, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1124W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012100512, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1140W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012100518, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1155W, 30, 1008, DB

Image
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Re: EPAC: Invest 96E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:04 pm

First plots.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 052124
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2124 UTC FRI OCT 5 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962012) 20121005 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121005  1800   121006  0600   121006  1800   121007  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N 115.5W   13.8N 117.6W   14.3N 119.6W   14.9N 121.4W
BAMD    13.2N 115.5W   13.6N 117.7W   14.2N 119.7W   15.0N 121.4W
BAMM    13.2N 115.5W   13.7N 117.7W   14.3N 119.8W   15.0N 121.8W
LBAR    13.2N 115.5W   13.6N 118.3W   14.3N 121.3W   15.2N 124.0W
SHIP        30KTS          39KTS          48KTS          55KTS
DSHP        30KTS          39KTS          48KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121007  1800   121008  1800   121009  1800   121010  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.4N 122.9W   16.3N 125.7W   16.7N 128.7W   17.0N 131.8W
BAMD    16.0N 122.8W   18.4N 123.8W   20.6N 121.2W   24.4N 113.9W
BAMM    15.9N 123.3W   17.2N 125.1W   17.8N 126.1W   18.3N 125.2W
LBAR    16.3N 126.1W   19.2N 128.2W   21.4N 127.1W   23.4N 123.6W
SHIP        60KTS          53KTS          35KTS          23KTS
DSHP        60KTS          53KTS          35KTS          23KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.2N LONCUR = 115.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  13.3N LONM12 = 112.4W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  13.3N LONM24 = 107.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:32 pm

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 5 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#4 Postby Weatherguy173 » Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:41 pm

wow, that was a big jump! 10 to 50
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#5 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:50 pm

Weatherguy173 wrote:wow, that was a big jump! 10 to 50

They had a special two around 530 pm that bumped it up to 30%. So from 10 to 30 to 50 in 6 hours!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:16 pm

Actually the NHC didn't think it was going to develop at all yesterday.
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#7 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:19 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 5 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 6:47 am

Up to 70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.
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#9 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Oct 06, 2012 6:56 am

Up to 70%

Image

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 9:52 am

Is now TD Fifteen-E.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND..


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 118.7W
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION FOR
THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY
FOLLOWS THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
LEAVING THE DEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL SLOW
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS...AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST.

VISIBLE IMAGES AND PERHAPS MICROWAVE DATA LATER TODAY WILL GIVE US
A BETTER DESCRIPTION OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NECESSARY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.0N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 16.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z 16.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 06, 2012 10:12 am

Kinda shocked me a bit.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 06, 2012 11:28 am

it is extremely organized! i never said *wow* for a tropical cyclone in the east pacific in over a month! :D
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#13 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Oct 06, 2012 11:56 am

Onwards and Upwards to Tropical Storm Olivia :)
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Re:

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 06, 2012 11:59 am

Image

Wow
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#15 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:03 pm

Whats the RI chances on this one?
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:46 pm

18z Best Track has TS Olivia at 35kts.

EP, 15, 2012100618, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1192W, 35, 1006, TS
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 119.6W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST. OLIVIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012

THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A CONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND HAS GAINED CURVATURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
HAS PERSISTED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0/45 KT
FROM SAB...T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...AND T2.4/34 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS
40 KT...AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA.

OLIVIA HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE OVER WATERS AROUND
28C DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE...AND VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX BECOMING SHALLOWER WITH DEEP-LAYER
DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
AIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR AROUND DAY 5...A
LITTLE LATER THAN IN THE OLD FORECAST.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY TUESDAY...THE WEAKENING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST OR POSSIBLY EVEN
SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 13.9N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.4N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 15.2N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.8N 122.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 16.1N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 16.1N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 15.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:38 pm

00z Best Track.

EP, 15, 2012100700, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1202W, 45, 1000, TS
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 9:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012

OLIVIA IS STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS A LOT
OF CURVATURE WITH MANY BANDING FEATURES AND PERHAPS A DEVELOPING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE BOTH 45 KT...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.
THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
TO PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF OLIVIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER PRESENT. AFTER THAT TIME...AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO START A
WEAKENING TREND...WHICH COULD BE AIDED BY PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
IN THE FIRST 48 H AND NOW SHOWS OLIVIA BECOMING A HURRICANE...NOT
TOO FAR FROM THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND LGEM MODELS. IT
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING...GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...IF
THE HIGHER PEAK INTENSITIES OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND HWRF
MODELS ENDED UP CLOSER TO REALITY.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT
BENEATH A LARGE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A
STRONG LOW DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY STEER OLIVIA MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING AND BECOME SHALLOWER...WHICH WOULD CAUSE OLIVIA
TO TURN TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LONGER RANGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCY BEING HOW LONG THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
CONTINUES. SINCE OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
LAST TIME...THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE GAINING A BIT
MORE LATITUDE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT STILL ENDS UP ALONG THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.0N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.6N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 15.4N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 16.0N 122.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 16.3N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.0N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 15.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:34 am

Wow, should become a hurricane when they were at frist predicting it be 35 knts,
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