EPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

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#21 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 07, 2012 1:50 am

Pretty sparse convection at the moment. Definitely has not strengthened.

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2012 6:27 am

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

WINDSAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATE
THAT OLIVIA HAS A TIGHT INNER CORE...AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BROKEN AND SOMEWHAT
DISCONNECTED FROM THE INNER CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A
CONSENSUS OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.

OLIVIA IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM 29C WATER AND HAS RELATIVELY GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW OLIVIA TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH
ONLY THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND HWRF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA REACHING
HURRICANE INTENSITY...THEIR SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE SINCE STORMS
WITH COMPACT INNER CORES TEND TO STRENGTHEN MORE EASILY THAN THOSE
WITH BROADER CIRCULATIONS. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BECOME DECOUPLED. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE STORM HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
295/7 KT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
BEING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK...OLIVIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...LED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
WHICH SHOW THE MOST PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION...NOT GOING AS FAR AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS BUT ENDING UP NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE
CIRCULATION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.4N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 16.7N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 17.0N 122.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 16.5N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 16.0N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 15.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
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#23 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Oct 07, 2012 9:13 am

TS Olivia

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2012 9:54 am

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

ALTHOUGH OLIVIA HAS LOST ITS BANDING FEATURES DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED. A RECENT
TRMM PASS AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL
CENTER...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT 30 N MI TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE THIS
CYCLE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED RECENTLY.

OLIVIA COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE REMAINS IN ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STAYS
OVER WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 28C. BY LATE TOMORROW...HOWEVER...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO THE DECOUPLING OF OLIVIA. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOWERED A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/5. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TUESDAY...OLIVIA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTHWEST
AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM BECOMES SHALLOW IN NATURE AND IS STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
TAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TRENDING
TOWARD THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.2N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.1N 121.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 16.6N 121.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.8N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.4N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 15.9N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2012 3:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OLIVIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE NOW A LITTLE LARGER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER NEAR THE
CENTER. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED STRUCTURE...A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS
SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT.

OLIVIA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. AFTER
THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK.
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA
BEGINNING TO TILT NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...
AND BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AGAIN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF OLIVIA HAS EITHER JUMPED OR REFORMED TO THE NORTH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
340/5. DESPITE THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW CYCLONE TURNING
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION....AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.2N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.9N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 17.0N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 16.3N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2012 9:49 pm

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE STRUCTURE AND PRECISE LOCATION
OF OLIVIA IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING. THE MOST
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE RESOLUTION OF THE DATA
DO NOT ALLOW A CLEAR PEEK OF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THIS SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON...AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING OLIVIA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. IN A DAY OR SO...THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS OLIVIA REACHING PEAK INTENSITY VERY
SOON AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC FORECAST
PREDICTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OLIVIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THE TROPICAL
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF OLIVIA TO DECREASE.
AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...
IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 16.2N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.8N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 17.3N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.2N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 16.9N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#27 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:37 am

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND A TRMM OVERPASS AROUND 1000 UTC INDICATE THAT
OLIVIA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE
EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT. GIVEN THE
CURRENT ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF OLIVIA...AND BECAUSE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY
WEAKENING. OLIVIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3
DAYS...WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
RECENTLY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/3. LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
TUESDAY AS OLIVIA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS
AIDS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.6N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.8N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.8N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.6N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 15.2N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:49 pm

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2012

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 1400 UTC. SINCE THEN...THE STORM HAS
DECOUPLED FURTHER...AND THE CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 N
MI AWAY FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY
THIS CYCLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40
KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...
OLIVIA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW EVEN SOONER.

THE STORM HAS MOVED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF OLIVIA
BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... AND IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.3N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.3N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 16.0N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 15.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Depression

#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:44 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2012

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
OF OLIVIA TO DECOUPLE DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH
THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY DECREASE...AND A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KT. OLIVIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SPIN DOWN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A RELATIVELY
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE NEW NHC FORECASTS CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN 12 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SINCE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS SEPARATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
MOTION HAS RESPONDED TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY 190/04. NOW A SHALLOW CYCLONE...OLIVIA SHOULD BE STEERED
SOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE BETTER
PERFORMING GFS AND ECWMF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 15.7N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 15.5N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0000Z 15.1N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z 14.5N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 13.8N 125.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#30 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:53 pm

Bye bye Olivia...the low level circulation may not even be closed any more...I can't be sure though, the upper level clouds didn't clear soon enough before daylight fled away.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:49 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012

OLIVIA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING FARTHER
AWAY FROM WHATEVER FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS REMAIN. THE SYSTEM NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS BECOME A REMNANT
LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION SOME TIME TO SPIN
DOWN. CONTINUED SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS NOW BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD...OR
220/6 KT...AROUND A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE
REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A MORE PRONOUNCED TRADE WIND REGIME. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST STILL LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND
IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 15.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 09/1800Z 14.8N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z 14.2N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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