ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:35 am

NNW of Puerto Rico.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210061333
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2012, DB, O, 2012100612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972012
AL, 97, 2012100600, , BEST, 0, 213N, 645W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012100606, , BEST, 0, 216N, 658W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012100612, , BEST, 0, 218N, 672W, 25, 1008, LO,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113837&p=2278905#p2278905
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#2 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:49 am

I was in the middle of posting in the now locked thread on Talking Tropics section when I was prompted that the thread was locked.
This is an Invest worthy.

The broad low pressure east of the Bahamas/north of Hispaniola is taking shape this morning. Area buoys in this area are showing pressure pressure low, 4-5 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.
But it does not have global model support for much strengthening.
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#3 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 06, 2012 9:10 am

Lol, what else is new with SHIPS this year.
It turns 97L into a hurricane, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 9:10 am

The squadron is ready for Monday afternoon if needed.

NOUS42 KNHC 061348
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 06 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-140

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 08/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 75.6W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 9:17 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 06, 2012 9:57 am

At least the western basin isn't so boring right now, even if the threat to the CONUS is extremely low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 10:20 am

TAFB 12z Surface Analysis.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 06, 2012 10:21 am

Sheared from the SW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:35 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:53 pm

Surrounded by shear all over. I don't see anything happening until that monster TUTT moves away.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:47 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2012100618, , BEST, 0, 219N, 669W, 25, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:09 pm

Sharp recurve out to sea with this disturbance per updated 18z plots.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:Sharp recurve out to sea with this disturbance per updated 18z plots.


Only the BAMs suggesting a sharp curve out. GFS shows meandering in the Bahamas while the CMC shows a loop into Cuba. GFS ensembles are all over the place. I wouldn't trust the models right now, lets get a few runs going to look at the trends.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 6:38 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#15 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:11 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Sharp recurve out to sea with this disturbance per updated 18z plots.


Only the BAMs suggesting a sharp curve out. GFS shows meandering in the Bahamas while the CMC shows a loop into Cuba. GFS ensembles are all over the place. I wouldn't trust the models right now, lets get a few runs going to look at the trends.


Conditions are marginal at best for development. Even it developes some it doesnt look like it will bother us in florida. Dry season just around the corner after this record breaking rainfall year in southern florida.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972012.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:40 pm

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2012100700, , BEST, 0, 220N, 673W, 25, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Oct 07, 2012 2:04 am

SFLcane wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Sharp recurve out to sea with this disturbance per updated 18z plots.


Only the BAMs suggesting a sharp curve out. GFS shows meandering in the Bahamas while the CMC shows a loop into Cuba. GFS ensembles are all over the place. I wouldn't trust the models right now, lets get a few runs going to look at the trends.


Conditions are marginal at best for development. Even it developes some it doesnt look like it will bother us in florida. Dry season just around the corner after this record breaking rainfall year in southern florida.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972012.png


Oh most defiantly, shouldn't get close to Florida. The angle and timing of the low pressure front coming off of the coast will either redirect this north or south, but should keep Florida safe. Question is, where will it go. BAMs are only ones taking this North. But I don't trust any of the models right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:04 am

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2012 9:46 am

Wow,I am surprised that they are very interested in this.Plenty of missions starting on Monday afternoon.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 07 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-141

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 08/1800Z                   A. 09/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
       C. 08/1430Z                   C. 09/0900Z
       D. 23.0N 74.5W                D. 24.5N 75.5W
       E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2130Z       E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1630Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSBLE 10/0000Z FIX NEAR
       24.5N 77.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:36 pm

Remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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