ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

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Hurricane Alexis
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#121 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Oct 11, 2012 11:28 pm

Does anyone think it survives and makes it to Florida? Very slim chance though.
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#122 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:06 am

Interesting little system, defying intensity and track forecasts...of course not as much as some of her previous mates.
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#123 Postby fci » Fri Oct 12, 2012 1:54 am

Hurricane Alexis wrote:Does anyone think it survives and makes it to Florida? Very slim chance though.


I think dry and air and shear would destroy it before it ever got to South Florida.
Might slip through Cuba to NW Carib as just a remnant low but chances for Florida are indeed, very slim.
Now, if it lingered in the NW Carib for a while, then maybe it could eventually go North or NE towards Florida but I haven't seen that anywhere so probably a bit ridiculous :lol:
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#124 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:42 am

SW winds over 50 kts aloft over Patty now. Recon on the way, but I don't think they'll find TS winds. Strong shear is taking its toll. As is evidence by the NNE winds north of the center, it's still attached to the cold front, too:

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#125 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:37 am

I think Recon might find dissipation...
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#126 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:11 am

Not much to look at, as shear has really taken its toll. Highest FL wind plane has found was about 28-30 kts. Surface winds generally 15-25 kts, though the plane somehow managed to find SFMR winds nearly twice the FL wind well north of the weak low center. They look quite suspect. I don't know what's up with the SFMR winds over the last year or two. So many times we see FL winds of 20-25 kts and SFMR winds of 40kts or more. Doesn't make sense. Cold front extends right down to Patty and through the southeastern Bahamas. Dew points near 70 in the Bahamas and into the 60s in northern Cuba.

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#127 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:52 am

45 knot winds (light purple color) found on the Eastern side

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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#128 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:Not much to look at, as shear has really taken its toll. Highest FL wind plane has found was about 28-30 kts. Surface winds generally 15-25 kts, though the plane somehow managed to find SFMR winds nearly twice the FL wind well north of the weak low center. They look quite suspect. I don't know what's up with the SFMR winds over the last year or two. So many times we see FL winds of 20-25 kts and SFMR winds of 40kts or more. Doesn't make sense. Cold front extends right down to Patty and through the southeastern Bahamas. Dew points near 70 in the Bahamas and into the 60s in northern Cuba.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Patty2.gif


Those high SFMR winds could just be the upper-level wind shear.
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#129 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:45 pm

Geez the Caribbean is really hostile.
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#130 Postby ROCK » Fri Oct 12, 2012 1:51 pm

completely exposed now. ..decapitation a la Chris a few years back...RIP Patty...
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#131 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:34 pm

Not a TS now by any stretch of the imagination. Remnant low - and still attached to the cold front:

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#132 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:46 pm

I don't know why this was ever named to begin with. I thought maybe because of its extremely short life it would have been passed by the NHC. Its track is very odd as well, moving SW all the way into the Caribbean? :double:

CrazyC83 wrote:Those high SFMR winds could just be the upper-level wind shear.

Is recon even high enough to sample that while trying to get a sense of a TC's strength? I never thought of that factor before and its never come up in my years of tracking tropical cyclones.
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#133 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 12, 2012 3:37 pm

.PATTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#134 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:14 pm

ROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...PATTY MOVING LITTLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0233.shtml
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

#135 Postby Chickenzilla » Sat Oct 13, 2012 9:57 am

See you in 2018, Patty.

...Patty no longer a tropical cyclone...
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