ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

Several posts were deleted as they had nothing to do with this Invest. You know who you were and you know what they said. Keep the discussion about the subject at hand please.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Actually, looks a lot better(outflow, swirl) and there's a "fool's eye" where the center of the storm is. What I mean by that is where it's swirling, it's clear.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[chaser1]

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Just as an observation, but little of any concern to anyone other than marine interests, is that 97L looks to have a mid level COC somewhere near a point just north of San Salvadore Island (I think that is the name) in the E. Bahamas. Looks to have a small burst of convection which if could be maintained long enough to fight off increasing upper level shear, might just have a bit more of a shot at consolodating. Looks to have a pretty tight center and vorticity envelope might be small enough, that perhaps something might try to quickly spin up within 24 hours. I still think odds are against plus steering would likely pull it more northward (assuming shear does not rip it apart first. Would'nt shock me if 2:00pm NHC pushed it up to perhaps 30%. For the sake of any potential land impact, I'd probably have a bit more curiosity about 98L than 97L.

[wxman57]

Surface obs indicate an inverted trof axis (tropical wave) crossing the central Bahamas NE-SW through 24N/74W. Surface pressures are in the 1014-1015mb range. Not TOO much wind shear now, but the shear increases tomorrow night/Wednesday as the upper trof approaches. Narrow window to develop an LLC and become a TD before shear takes its toll. Chances not good.

[Hurricanehink]

T numbers are now 1.0. There is a circulation exposed from the convection, though.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.

[wxman57]

Front is picking it up. Time co call it...

[gatorcane]

Any chance a low tries to develop further south than the current low? There is some kind of MLC Southeast of the current low position and convection is starting to develop around there...maybe breaking off from the front?

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD
AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

[Blown Away]

JB still tweeting about this area.

[KUEFC]

JB still tweeting about this area.

Doesnt he always though?,

[gatorcane]

Very surprised NHC dropped this. Certainly looking better today and looks like it has detached from the front so will be interesting where this will decide to go from here with high pressure building in down the eastern seaboard in the wake of the front, likely SW looking at the latest GFS run.

[KUEFC]

If it heads SW check wxman post in the 98l thread so it's doomed

[Hurricanehink]

Is it frontal? Is that why it was dropped?

[ozonepete]

Don't know why they dropped this either. It is just about stationary and has an easily visible circulation with 3 hot towers going up near the center and nice outflow on the eastern and western sides. It is pretty much detached from the front now as well and is in a low shear area. I just wouldn't say it should be ignored given those conditions and its small size.

[cycloneye]

Well,at least until the time of this post 97L has not been deactivated by ATCF.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[cycloneye]

97L is back on TWO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGIANALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE LOW MERGES
WITH A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

[ozonepete]

Aha! the season of disappearing/reappearing cyclones continues. Not that I expect too much, but it's so small it could make it to TD or TS before the front arrives. Almost no negatives for intensification at the moment as long as it just sits there.