ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#101 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:I cannot find any evidence of TS winds. No obs and no satellite estimates of TS winds. Don't see any justification for an upgrade. In any case, no threat to land. SW wind shear will only be increasing with time, stripping the convection off to the NE and causing dissipation.


I have to run right now but scroll back and look at the 15Z surface analysis from HPC that I posted earlier. Look at the 45 knot wind in the Bahamas just to the west of the center....
0 likes   

KUEFC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2008 6:19 am

#102 Postby KUEFC » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:59 pm

wxman what do you think of the CMC developing the energy that is left over a week from now further south?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17569
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#103 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:59 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I cannot find any evidence of TS winds. No obs and no satellite estimates of TS winds. Don't see any justification for an upgrade. In any case, no threat to land. SW wind shear will only be increasing with time, stripping the convection off to the NE and causing dissipation.


Let me assist you:

11/1745 UTC 26.0N 71.9W T3.0/3.0 16L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


A Dvorak estimate is not direct observations of TS winds. In fact, these estimates can be quite far off from reality. They rely on a satellite appearance to estimate surface winds. We know that many times satellite appearances can be quite deceiving. Systems that may look like strengthening tropical storms (satellite) may have no low-level circulation once recon gets there.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17569
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#104 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:00 pm

KUEFC wrote:wxman what do you think of the CMC developing the energy that is left over a week from now further south?


Not much. I don't use the Canadian for tropical cyclones. It beats the NOGAPS, but that's not saying much.
0 likes   

KUEFC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2008 6:19 am

#105 Postby KUEFC » Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:04 pm

Lol ok cheers please ignore my pm, hope your well :)
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2026
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#106 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:17 pm

ASCAT showed 25 knot winds. Accounting for the low-bias of the instrument, that gives 30-35 knot winds.

The satellite presentation of the depression has also become better organized over the past few hours. CIMSS-ADT supports tropical storm strength and SAB and TAFB support tropical storm strength. This is a tropical storm, no way around it.
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2026
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#107 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...PATTY FORMS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5340
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#108 Postby MGC » Thu Oct 11, 2012 4:08 pm

TS Patty........yea right. I'm gonna bite my tongue on this one. The front does look very close to the TS....should be declared a frontal low soon.....MGC
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#109 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 5:38 pm

Looks every bit like a TS and has been improving all day. More hot towers going up again. Too bad there's no buoys there. Actually hard to believe there's no buoys there - I really never noticed before.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9477
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#110 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 5:57 pm

It's sitting smack between the two buoys that are there...one to the north, and one to the south...couldn't get in a better position to prevent us from gaining much needed information from them! :roll: :x
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#111 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:02 pm

brunota2003 wrote:It's sitting smack between the two buoys that are there...one to the north, and one to the south...couldn't get in a better position to prevent us from gaining much needed information from them! :roll: :x



Yup, bru. And of course the ships will now go around it so they won't help. Very frustrating. :x
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#112 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:06 pm

Also, just to reiterate from my post earlier, I'm not convinced this is going southwestward at all. A deeper system should go east or northeast, and this is definitely deeper now, despite the shear.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8889
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#113 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:13 pm

I still argue that this has not been a frontal Low all day at all. It has had a well defined closed & tight LLC
The frontal boundary started washing out as it near the tropical low.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109493
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#114 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:29 pm

00z Best Track up to 40kts.

AL, 16, 2012101200, , BEST, 0, 260N, 725W, 40, 1005, TS
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8889
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#115 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:41 pm

I admit that the LLC is starting to get detached from the MLC after looking at the latest sat loop, may not be much of a system 12-24 hrs from now.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20079
Age: 39
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#116 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:47 pm

ozonepete wrote:Also, just to reiterate from my post earlier, I'm not convinced this is going southwestward at all. A deeper system should go east or northeast, and this is definitely deeper now, despite the shear.


The 18Z GFS has it moving NE for a day or so then moves back WSW passing over Andros and then Northern Cuba . It's shifted a bit north on this run and keeps Patty or the surface low alive a bit longer. One thing seems sure, the environment just doesn't seem favorable for any system to last too long if it moves west with dry stable air and plenty of shear around. Could easily just become a remnant swirl heading WSW by the weekend. Those in South Florida can attest with dry, breezy winds from the NE and a pleasant day today with low humidity.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9477
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#117 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:56 pm

South Florida is now in the "non-tropical cone of doom"!

Image
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9477
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#118 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:01 pm

From the 11 pm discussion:

A FORTUITOUS 11/2031 UTC DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION INDICATED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM 850-300 MB
WAS MUCH LESS THAN THE 28-30 KT 850-200 MB SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL. THIS MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY PATTY HAS REMAINED
WELL-ORGANIZED TODAY DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS.


They couldn't do one penetration? :lol: Going down there for 98L. Just continues to show how hard shear forecasts, and even current analysis, is.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#119 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:48 pm

:uarrow: Yeah. Shear is so difficult. It often speads out horizontally in such an amorphous pattern that it can shift outward into some nearby areas while it pulls back from other areas not far away at the same time. It does it so quickly sometimes that I wonder if we'll ever get a really good handle on it in cases like these where a TC like Patty is drifting along the border of really heavy and light shear.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#120 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 11:15 pm

I just saw the 00Z GFS and it takes it northeastward (which is what I've been saying) and then it does a large clockwise loop back towards the Bahamas. That makes a lot more sense to me and this is, btw, one of the the first model runs that has a much better initialization of Patty's strength and position. I can see Patty moving northeastward now as I watch it. This may be around a lot longer than anyone thought it would be...
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests