ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#61 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:36 am

Remains at 50%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE
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#62 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:20 am

What are they waiting to upgrade 97L to a TD?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#63 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:41 am

Hey peeps,look at SSD Dvorak :eek:

11/1145 UTC 25.6N 72.6W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic
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#64 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:53 am

Continues to improve in organization and is in a relatively low shear environment, should be on it's way to code red here later today. As some have suggested, not sure why this has not been declared a TD by now. Question is will the cold front be able to pick it up or not.
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#65 Postby Chickenzilla » Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:24 am

NDG wrote:What are they waiting to upgrade 97L to a TD?

Maybe NHC doesn't want a system that will last very little.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#66 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:26 am

cycloneye wrote:Hey peeps,look at SSD Dvorak :eek:

11/1145 UTC 25.6N 72.6W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic


:eek: is right! You gotta be kidding me. This IS a tropical depression.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#67 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:27 am

When would renumber have to come up for this to make depression at 11?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#68 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:31 am

ozonepete wrote:When would renumber have to come up for this to make depression at 11?


Watch the renumber section before 10:30 AM EDT on the atcf site to see if they add a second 97L renumber as there is one that was renumbered on 28 of August.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#69 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:35 am

Last system we had people exclaiming it should not be upgraded, now everyone wants an upgrade. Let's be sure and stay respectful please. :)

Image

Live loop (horrible at the moment): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#70 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:49 am

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If you play the 30 frame visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Yesterday the LLC was ill defined and convection not concentrated over any center. Obviously it's much better defined today but TD declaration requires persistence. I would guess an upgrade at 5PM unless upper level winds blow it apart by then. I believe they use mostly objective measures and obviously one of them has not met the requirement for TD declaration yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#71 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:57 am

cycloneye wrote:
ozonepete wrote:When would renumber have to come up for this to make depression at 11?


Watch the renumber section before 10:30 AM EDT on the atcf site to see if they add a second 97L renumber as there is one that was renumbered on 28 of August.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


Thanks, Luis. I've never gone on there much so I appreciate it. I see you can also click on the column header "Last modified" and it sorts by date from oldest to newest. If you click on it again it sorts from newest to oldest, so then you can just watch the top of the column for the new renumber file to pop up (I would think.)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#72 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:18 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al972012_al162012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111414
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#73 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:22 am

AL, 16, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 726W, 30, 1009, TD
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#74 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:23 am

ozonepete wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
ozonepete wrote:When would renumber have to come up for this to make depression at 11?


Watch the renumber section before 10:30 AM EDT on the atcf site to see if they add a second 97L renumber as there is one that was renumbered on 28 of August.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


Thanks, Luis. I've never gone on there much so I appreciate it. I see you can also click on the column header "Last modified" and it sorts by date from oldest to newest. If you click on it again it sorts from newest to oldest, so then you can just watch the top of the column for the new renumber file to pop up (I would think.)


I've learned not to try and beat Luis to the renumber if he's watching. Refresh burns me every time. You can sort the list, but apparently that does not check for any updates. The other clue to the renumber is when I post a guess, since I'm almost always wrong. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#75 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:25 am

Latest

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#76 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:35 am

Yup - looks quite good to me. The LLC is tucked under that convective burst on the western side. I'm pretty sure this will make TS today. Remember it went from 20% to a TD in 12 hours and it just has no negatives for another 24 hours.

Hey Mark, yeah I thought I caught the renumber before Luis and he already had it up here! lol...
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#77 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:41 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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#78 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:47 am

I am glad they upgraded it, it was giving me a headache as to why it could not be classified at least as a TD. :wink:
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#79 Postby MGC » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:49 am

Looks like a TD to me.....and this was given up for dead yesterday....MGC
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#80 Postby Weatherguy173 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:51 am

you knew sooner or later they would dub this thing a TD.
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