ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion

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NDG
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#81 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:54 am

Zoomed in sat pic, LLC very close to the deep convection.

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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#82 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:57 am

The only reason against calling it a TD is that it still appears to be attached to the cold front. Frontal lows don't qualify as TCs. Interesting that they forecast it to dissipate within 24 hrs. Don't see much point in calling it a TD at this point, but it's their call...

Here's a screen shot of the depression with surface obs plotted. You can clearly see the cold front (in the observations) passing right through the depression. Note the 25kt NE wind off the NE coast of Cuba (behind the cold front).
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#83 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:20 am

If named, it would be Patty.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#84 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:20 am

wxman57 wrote:The only reason against calling it a TD is that it still appears to be attached to the cold front. Frontal lows don't qualify as TCs. Interesting that they forecast it to dissipate within 24 hrs. Don't see much point in calling it a TD at this point, but it's their call...


I'm assuming they basically have to call it when it has the qualifications, i.e. convective persistence and Dvorak numbers as high as 3.0. If they didn't then they'd be inconsistent and so would the long-term records.

Also, this one has been under-estimated enough that it wouldn't surprise me if it made TS well before the shear gets it since it's over very high SSTs. It managed to make TD when everyone thought the shear was too high. It all depends on how long it sits there before the southwest motion.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#85 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:20 am

Why would you have this system accroding to some models go south and west, but then 98 gets pulled north?
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#86 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:23 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Why would you have this system accroding to some models go south and west, but then 98 gets pulled north?


They are under entirely different steering winds because they are a thousand miles apart.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#87 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:41 am

wxman57 wrote:The only reason against calling it a TD is that it still appears to be attached to the cold front. Frontal lows don't qualify as TCs. Interesting that they forecast it to dissipate within 24 hrs. Don't see much point in calling it a TD at this point, but it's their call...

Here's a screen shot of the depression with surface obs plotted. You can clearly see the cold front (in the observations) passing right through the depression. Note the 25kt NE wind off the NE coast of Cuba (behind the cold front).
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/16a.gif


If it is indeed attached to the cold front or getting attached to the cold front (because the low pressure was in place well before the cold front sweeping through the area) we have seen an upgrade is because of a well defined LLC & MLC.
Wouldn't frontal lows be broader in nature? Plus, frontal boundaries (cold fronts) this time of the year loose is charecteristics as they move across the Bahamas because of the still very warm waters becoming more of a wind shift than anything else.
IMO.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#88 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:52 am

NDG wrote:If it is indeed attached to the cold front or getting attached to the cold front (because the low pressure was in place well before the cold front sweeping through the area) we have seen an upgrade is because of a well defined LLC & MLC.
Wouldn't frontal lows be broader in nature? Plus, frontal boundaries (cold fronts) this time of the year loose is charecteristics as they move across the Bahamas because of the still very warm waters becoming more of a wind shift than anything else.
IMO.


Those are good questions. Wxman, I know that's your map, but the OPC and HPC have the front as dissipated on theirs. Here's the OPC followed by the HPC analysis at 12Z. I think the dewpoints and temps have rebounded over the Bahamas and are too high already to count that as a front south of 30 degrees anymore.

OPC Analysis for 12Z
Image

HPC Analysis for 12Z
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#89 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:00 pm

There's still a sharp boundary extending through the low. Perhaps the temperature difference east and west of the front isn't significant to the south of the low, but the frontal boundary is still there, as is evidence by the NE wind of 25 kts near NE Cuba. I think there's still a strong argument that the frontal boundary still extends into the low center - it hasn't detached yet. Would imagine that this discussion is ongoing at the NHC as well. Doesn't matter too much, as it probably won't be around too long and there won't be any significant impact on the Bahamas.
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#90 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:51 pm

Best track 18Z:

AL, 16, 2012101118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#91 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:54 pm

:uarrow: Thanks for posting that. Can't say I'm surprised. The ADT numbers have been good enough for a while and the LLC has gotten under the western edge of the convection in the last few hours as well. It looks like a TS.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#92 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:57 pm

The LLC previously identified by the NHC position appears to have dissipated. I'm not sure it still has a circulation center.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#93 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:The LLC previously identified by the NHC position appears to have dissipated. I'm not sure it still has a circulation center.


If you watch the loops it tucked in under the convection and if you watch the inflow on the rgb satellite you can see the LLC is so much more under the main convective blow-up that this has gotten more stacked and more organized. If this is the case this will change the track as well. A weak low level swirl would go southwestward but a much deeper stacked TC will go northeastward. I think the latter is becoming more likely.

Edited to correct fcst movement for a low level ssytem...
Last edited by ozonepete on Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#94 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:01 pm

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#95 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:05 pm

Latest Sattilite Image and Forecast track

Image

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Re:

#96 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:12 pm

HenkL wrote:Best track 18Z:

AL, 16, 2012101118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest



Is it now TS Patty?
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Re: Re:

#97 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:22 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:
HenkL wrote:Best track 18Z:

AL, 16, 2012101118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest



Is it now TS Patty?


Yup. I assume they'll announce it at 5. I'm very curious to see the discussion because if it is a deeper cyclone it probably won't go southwestward. And the models probably won't give a good track forecast until they get the new position and strength.
Last edited by ozonepete on Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#98 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:25 pm

Does anyone know where Aric is? I would surely love to know what he thinks - he loves this type of scenario and has a keen eye for these (not the only one of course.) I just like his take on developing TCs.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#99 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:49 pm

I cannot find any evidence of TS winds. No obs and no satellite estimates of TS winds. Don't see any justification for an upgrade. In any case, no threat to land. SW wind shear will only be increasing with time, stripping the convection off to the NE and causing dissipation.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#100 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:I cannot find any evidence of TS winds. No obs and no satellite estimates of TS winds. Don't see any justification for an upgrade. In any case, no threat to land. SW wind shear will only be increasing with time, stripping the convection off to the NE and causing dissipation.


Let me assist you:

11/1745 UTC 26.0N 71.9W T3.0/3.0 16L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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