ATL: PATTY - Models

[NDG]

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WHXX01 KWBC 061335
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1335 UTC SAT OCT 6 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20121006 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121006  1200   121007  0000   121007  1200   121008  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.8N  67.2W   21.5N  68.5W   21.6N  70.0W   22.4N  71.4W
BAMD    21.8N  67.2W   20.9N  68.3W   20.6N  68.9W   21.0N  69.5W
BAMM    21.8N  67.2W   21.2N  68.6W   21.1N  69.7W   21.7N  70.7W
LBAR    21.8N  67.2W   22.1N  68.8W   22.7N  69.7W   24.0N  70.5W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121008  1200   121009  1200   121010  1200   121011  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.3N  73.0W   25.1N  75.7W   25.7N  77.5W   24.8N  79.5W
BAMD    21.6N  70.2W   22.6N  71.8W   22.3N  73.5W   21.7N  74.9W
BAMM    22.7N  71.8W   24.6N  73.5W   25.1N  74.3W   24.8N  74.8W
LBAR    25.2N  71.0W   27.3N  70.4W   28.9N  69.4W   31.3N  68.1W
SHIP        49KTS          55KTS          59KTS          63KTS
DSHP        49KTS          55KTS          59KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.8N LONCUR =  67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  21.3N LONM12 =  64.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  20.8N LONM24 =  61.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  150NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[LarryWx]

1) The tracks graphic doesn't match the text lat/long.

2) Ships model is so deceivingly bullish almost every time there's an invest that it has almost no credibilty. It assumes there's already a TC. Why do they even run the dern thing when there's no TC?

[MWatkins]

1) The tracks graphic doesn't match the text lat/long.

2) Ships model is so deceivingly bullish almost every time there's an invest that it has almost no credibilty. It assumes there's already a TC. Why do they even run the dern thing when there's no TC?

Hi Larry,

1. It might be that the SFWMD map is pulling from an old storm or is going out to 7 days.

2. Yeah, when they designed the SHIPS database they included only systems that become named storms. So the SHIPS database is working with the assumption that it will get to a storm because there are no verification cases that didn't go past invest or TD status.

Best thing is to look at the text product to see what factors are causing the intensity change (especially the normalized individual contribution to intensity change at the bottom).

Here is the latest:

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                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL972012  10/06/12  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    37    43    49    55    55    56    59    63    63
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    37    43    49    55    55    56    59    63    63
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    35    40    45    48    50    52    55    57
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    11    11    13    13    15    19    22    25    22    25    29    36
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -2    -1     0    -1    -4    -3    -2    -4     0     0     0     1
SHEAR DIR        331   343   301   285   298   291   305   269   286   267   281   248   255
SST (C)         29.6  29.6  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.6  29.6  29.6  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5
POT. INT. (KT)   162   161   159   158   158   161   161   160   158   156   156   155   156
ADJ. POT. INT.   149   146   143   141   141   144   144   141   136   132   131   130   132
200 MB T (C)   -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    10    10    10    11    11    11     9    10    10    11    11
700-500 MB RH     60    58    56    54    55    56    61    65    63    59    50    45    43
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     5     5     5     4     3     3     3     2     2  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    28    29    28    19    15    -7   -29   -37   -38   -12   -22   -19   -22
200 MB DIV        -2   -13   -20   -10   -11   -14    15    24    21     2     5    19    -8
700-850 TADV      -3    -1    -2    -4    -3     1     0     5     2    -4    -7    -5    -3
LAND (KM)        347   279   214   179   156   213   321   416   454   487   474   466   429
LAT (DEG N)     21.8  21.5  21.2  21.2  21.1  21.7  22.7  23.8  24.6  25.1  25.1  25.1  24.8
LONG(DEG W)     67.2  67.9  68.6  69.2  69.7  70.7  71.8  72.7  73.5  73.9  74.3  74.6  74.8
STM SPEED (KT)     9     7     6     5     5     6     7     6     4     2     2     1     2
HEAT CONTENT      86    96   105   106   102    87    75    74    66    61    65    68    72

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  904  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  69.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   5.  11.  18.  23.  27.  31.  33.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   4.   5.   7.   6.   4.   1.  -1.  -4.  -6. -10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   6.   5.   5.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   9.  12.  18.  24.  30.  30.  31.  34.  38.  38.

Looks like shear would be significantly higher by day 5, and the SST potential seems to be dominating the intensity calc late in the period. I personally think that's high. Although upper shear isn't a huge factor, it looks like most of the intensity change is coming from SST potential plus change from the sample mean.

MW

[LarryWx]

1) The tracks graphic doesn't match the text lat/long.

2) Ships model is so deceivingly bullish almost every time there's an invest that it has almost no credibilty. It assumes there's already a TC. Why do they even run the dern thing when there's no TC?

Hi Larry,

1. It might be that the SFWMD map is pulling from an old storm or is going out to 7 days.

2. Yeah, when they designed the SHIPS database they included only systems that become named storms. So the SHIPS database is working with the assumption that it will get to a storm because there are no verification cases that didn't go past invest or TD status.

Best thing is to look at the text product to see what factors are causing the intensity change (especially the normalized individual contribution to intensity change at the bottom).

Looks like shear would be significantly higher by day 5, and the SST potential seems to be dominating the intensity calc late in the period. I personally think that's high. Although upper shear isn't a huge factor, it looks like most of the intensity change is coming from SST potential plus change from the sample mean.
MW

Mike, thanks for your reply.

1) That's it. The text goes out five days vs. 7 days for the graph. I missed that. So, they actually do match through day 5.

2) So, with that skewed database, Ships just about has to strengthens an invest. That's why I think it it is deceiving to run it for invests.

[gatorcane]

This has not been updated with the globals.

CMC/GFS: sends a low SW then dissipates it over Cuba
ECMWF: doesn't organize anything (gets absorbed in the front)

[brunota2003]

Did any of the models have the low dropping to the SE?

[somethingfunny]

Did any of the models have the low dropping to the SE?

The XTRAP.

[brunota2003]

Did any of the models have the low dropping to the SE?

The XTRAP.

If there was a like button on here, I would totally like that post LOL! Any serious models?

[gatorcane]

A track out to sea is not certain at this point as we can see the models are not in agreement:

[Blown Away]

TVCN (Gray Line) now loops 97L and sends it back to the WSW and would likely be close to the NHC's track if they post one.
My thinking looking at the shear map, if 97L moves back to the WSW there won't be much to the system. JMHO

[KUEFC]

A track out to sea is not certain at this point as we can see the models are not in agreement:

Probably not, but not expected to last very long either.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Interesting run by the 18z GFS. IT lasts longer than forecast, and for a second i thought it was going to make landfall in S FL

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS sends Patty or the remains WSW through Cuba into the Caribbean and some possible regeneration NE of Houndoras, a week from now we may still be dealing with this