ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Florida1118
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1757
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:59 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210081302
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012100712, , BEST, 0, 80N, 308W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 325W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 342W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100806, , BEST, 0, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100812, , BEST, 0, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3066
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#2 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:25 am

ship got it weak
0 likes   

Florida1118
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1757
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#3 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:26 am

Dr.Masters thoughts on 98L:

98L midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles

A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is likely until 98L encounters much higher wind shear of 20 - 40 knots Wednesday though Saturday. Moisture from 98L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. On Monday, the GFS model predicts that wind shear will fall low enough for 98L to develop into a tropical depression a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. The NOGAPS model shows some weak support for this idea, but the ECMWF model does not. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111279
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:16 am

This reminds me of the point of origin of what was eventually Hurricane Thomas.But of course I am not saying this will be like that in intensity,only pointing out the low latitud it was when it was a strong wave.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111279
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:02 pm

2 PM TWO remains at 10%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE PRODUCING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111279
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:45 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2012100818, , BEST, 0, 85N, 391W, 25, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17832
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#7 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:09 pm

Though the Euro, GFS and Canadian all develop at least a weak low that moves across the NE Caribbean sometime Friday/Saturday, I think they may be going a bit overboard as far as the strength of the low, given the continued unfavorable conditions in the MDR this season, particularly anywhere near the eastern Caribbean. Could be a few thunderstorms across the NE Caribbean late this week before it tracks off to the north and out to sea.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20357
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#8 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:Though the Euro, GFS and Canadian all develop at least a weak low that moves across the NE Caribbean sometime Friday/Saturday, I think they may be going a bit overboard as far as the strength of the low, given the continued unfavorable conditions in the MDR this season, particularly anywhere near the eastern Caribbean. Could be a few thunderstorms across the NE Caribbean late this week before it tracks off to the north and out to sea.


Yeah I think the GFS may be going overboard that is for sure bombing this system out just NE of Puerto Rico, however, both the CMC and ECMWF are not shoe-in recurvers at this point in the long-range which is a little concerning. Still far out and there is plenty of time to watch it... it is October afterall, typically not a good time for MDR development climatologically. It's at a very low-lattitude so would not expect it to recurve before the islands at this point.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17832
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#9 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:54 pm

Note the vast differences in timing of arrival in the eastern Caribbean between the models:

Canadian - 06Z Friday
Euro - 12Z Thursday
GFS - 12Z Saturday

Canadian may be closest here, as it's been averaging abut 12-13 kts forward speed, which puts it crossing the islands of the eastern Caribbean on Friday morning. For now, just expecting scattered squalls with heavy rain and wind gusts 40-50 kts from St. Lucia NW to the US and BVI Friday/Saturday.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12104
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#10 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 08, 2012 4:46 pm

First appearence on SSD now...

08/1800 UTC 8.1N 38.8W TOO WEAK 98L
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111279
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2012 6:34 pm

8 PM TWO remains at 10%.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12104
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#12 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:40 pm

09/0000 UTC 8.4N 39.6W TOO WEAK 98L
08/1800 UTC 8.1N 38.8W TOO WEAK 98L
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111279
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:49 pm

Anticyclone building over 98L.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3066
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#14 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:23 pm

look like wx57 think we making big deal some thing wont happen. look he only forecast strong tropical wave
0 likes   

Caribwxgirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 287
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)

#15 Postby Caribwxgirl » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:26 am

I am just going to maintain a wait and see attitude. This far out many things could change.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3066
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#16 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:38 am

FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
INVEST 98L. GFES MEAN SOLUTION INDICATES A SHARP TROUGH WITH THIS
FEATURE STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WHAT APPEARS LIKELY IS THAT FEATURE OR SYSTEM WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO LEAVE THE REGION. SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SVRL
DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1 Issued by NWS San Juan, P
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12104
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#17 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:08 am

09/0545 UTC 8.8N 40.9W TOO WEAK 98L
09/0000 UTC 8.4N 39.6W TOO WEAK 98L
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111279
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:47 am

From the San Juan NWS this morning.

..FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SATURDAY. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANY BY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
LATEST SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATING VALUES
OVER 2.5 INCHES. ALL COMPUTER MODELS AGREED THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ACTIVE AS IT APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
WEEKEND. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER LOCALLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111279
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2012 6:18 am

From Rob of Crownweather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Keeping An Eye On Invest 98L East Of The Windward Islands

Tuesday, October 9, 2012 5:50 am

by Rob Lightbown


An area of low pressure, designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center, was located a little over 1000 miles to the east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is worth, at least, to be monitored over the next several days as it tracks west-northwestward. At this time, environmental conditions will be relatively unfavorable for development over the next few days, however, forecast guidance such as the GFS model forecasts that conditions may become more favorable as 98L nears the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late this weekend into early next week.

As for the forecast guidance: The GFS and European models both seem to suggest development into a tropical storm in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday or Monday. From there this system tracks to near the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas by the middle part of next week.

The Canadian model goes absolutely bonkers and forecasts this system to impact the Windward Islands and Barbados as a moderate tropical storm by Thursday night and then forecasts this system to significantly intensify into a hurricane and turn northward impacting much of the islands of the Leeward Islands on Friday into Saturday and bringing hurricane conditions to the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.

I think the Canadian model is way too strong with its development and strengthening and that the GFS and European model guidance may be closer to what may occur. With all of this said, I strongly suggest that all residents and vacationers in the Lesser Antilles and the island of Barbados to keep close tabs on the progress of this system. Based on the current forward speed of 15 mph this system is likely to start impacting the Lesser Antilles by Thursday night with squally weather continuing into Friday. I think at the very least heavy rain squalls, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph and rough seas can be expected for Thursday night and Friday along the entire island chain of the Lesser Antilles. This squally weather is then expected to spread across the US and British Virgin Islands as we get into Saturday.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9925
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#20 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 09, 2012 10:27 am

The models might once again be missing the prevailing negative conditions.
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests