ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Luis,

Please give me the link again for local observations.

K

You only have to look up in the forum for the sticky thread

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113923&hilit=&p=2280089#p2280089

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Recon is finding stronger winds and a lower pressure with Rafael, so we should see a stronger storm at 5pm EDT. Still think this will get a stronger than the NHC is forecasting.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS AS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 63.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Patti]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.0N, 63.5W or about 25.0 miles (40.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 5 hours and 40 minutes from now (Saturday, October 13 at 10:36PM AST).

[caribepr]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.0N, 63.5W or about 25.0 miles (40.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 5 hours and 40 minutes from now (Saturday, October 13 at 10:36PM AST).

Our (Culebra) closest point went from 24 miles at the 11 o'clock update to 105 miles at the 5 pm update. At the same time, we have gone from a watch to a warning. Hmmm.

[cycloneye]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.0N, 63.5W or about 25.0 miles (40.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 5 hours and 40 minutes from now (Saturday, October 13 at 10:36PM AST).

Our (Culebra) closest point went from 24 miles at the 11 o'clock update to 105 miles at the 5 pm update. At the same time, we have gone from a watch to a warning. Hmmm.

Hi Mj. The new director of the San Juan NWS Roberto Garcia said in a press conference that we can't let our guard down just in case Rafael moves more closer before it goes away from our latitude. Also,he said that the tail of Rafael may contain some TS force winds in gusts and with heavy rains and that is another reason to keep the warning for Culebra and the watch for PR.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Rafael



Nothing much has changed with the warnings

Tropical Storm Warnings
British and US Virgin islands
Angullia
St Kitts and Nevis
Montserrat
Antigua and Barbuda
Guadeloupe

Tropical Storm Watch
Puerto Rico

Just measured Rafael on google earth and it is HUGE. 1,700 km from north to south and 1,215 km fom west to east

[ozonepete]

Getting much better organized now. Look at the intense thunderstorms over the Windward Islands, easily visible on the avn IR satellite image.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...CENTER OF RAFAEL NOW BETWEEN ST. MARTIN AND ST. CROIX...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 63.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[jinftl]

Starting to look fairly impressive...healthier looking storm for sure



Latest model runs bumping up intensity some too...we may have a Cat 1 or even approaching Cat 2 storm if these forecasts hold?

[kungfut]

St john east end.
So far . nothing.
Last two nights were worse.
Where is it??? Even the seas have gone down.
So far nothing. Dead air and no rain. I see stars up above on east end

[Gustywind]

13/2345 UTC 18.6N 62.9W T2.0/2.5 RAFAEL
13/1745 UTC 16.9N 63.6W T2.5/2.5 RAFAEL

[Gustywind]

St john east end.
So far . nothing.
Last two nights were worse.
Where is it??? Even the seas have gone down.
So far nothing. Dead air and no rain. I see stars up above on east end

Be aware and read carefully the posts before. I advice you to be on your guard. For sure Rafael is there. Plenty of rain is spreading on the Leewards for example in my location. Once again here... thunder is rumbling nicely.

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...CENTER OF RAFAEL PASSES WEST OF ST. MARTIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[summersquall]

[knotimpaired]

Nothing here, all quite.

[kungfut]

same here on st john.
nothing. all quiet. so far a total dud.

[Gustywind]

Very perturbed night in Guadeloupe! Very strong rain and tstorms have posed big troubles in some areas with huge flooding and rivers under their blanket, trees down. Guadeloupe is now under a red alert since 4AM. No real improvement is expected today. Stay tuned, i will give you more about the worrying situation here.

Here is the latest from Meteo-France Guadeloupe

[size=150]Sunday, October 14, 2012Weather-France Guadeloupe, Hello!04AM, the level of vigilance is: red for strong rains/storms, be extremely careful![/size]

Intense storm stormy bands through the archipelago since the beginning of night in the wake of the storm Rafael. Large storms erupted on Basse-Terre, in particular of Vieux-Habitants in Capesterre. Accumulations reached 100-150 mm in 3 hours in this sector.
For the next 3 hours, pluvial episodes - stormy continue follow up from the southwest of the archipelago.The wind blows in gusts of 50 to 80 km/h from Southeast to South to the passage of these storms.These observations and their immediate evolution will fund day around 06 45 AM

[caribepr]

Very perturbed night in Guadeloupe! Very strong rain and tstorms have posed big troubles in some areas with huge flooding and rivers under their blanket, trees down. Guadeloupe is now under a red alert since 4AM. No real improvement is expected today. Stay tuned, i will give you more about the worrying situation here.

Here is the latest from Meteo-France Guadeloupe

[size=150]Sunday, October 14, 2012Weather-France Guadeloupe, Hello!04AM, the level of vigilance is: red for strong rains/storms, be extremely careful![/size]

Intense storm stormy bands through the archipelago since the beginning of night in the wake of the storm Rafael. Large storms erupted on Basse-Terre, in particular of Vieux-Habitants in Capesterre. Accumulations reached 100-150 mm in 3 hours in this sector.
For the next 3 hours, pluvial episodes - stormy continue follow up from the southwest of the archipelago.The wind blows in gusts of 50 to 80 km/h from Southeast to South to the passage of these storms.These observations and their immediate evolution will fund day around 06 45 AM

Sorry to hear this report, Gusty, hoping there is no loss of life.

[Gustywind]

Very perturbed night in Guadeloupe! Very strong rain and tstorms have posed big troubles in some areas with huge flooding and rivers under their blanket, trees down. Guadeloupe is now under a red alert since 4AM. No real improvement is expected today. Stay tuned, i will give you more about the worrying situation here.

Here is the latest from Meteo-France Guadeloupe

[size=150]Sunday, October 14, 2012Weather-France Guadeloupe, Hello!04AM, the level of vigilance is: red for strong rains/storms, be extremely careful![/size]

Intense storm stormy bands through the archipelago since the beginning of night in the wake of the storm Rafael. Large storms erupted on Basse-Terre, in particular of Vieux-Habitants in Capesterre. Accumulations reached 100-150 mm in 3 hours in this sector.
For the next 3 hours, pluvial episodes - stormy continue follow up from the southwest of the archipelago.The wind blows in gusts of 50 to 80 km/h from Southeast to South to the passage of these storms.These observations and their immediate evolution will fund day around 06 45 AM

Sorry to hear this report, Gusty, hoping there is no loss of life.

Thanks to you my friend , i hope that too, but we never knows as people saw this morning at 2AM a car who was in the river. We don't know if there was occupants in the car. Moreover in the reports, at Basse-Terre all the phone communications are down.