ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

10/0545 UTC 9.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 98L
09/2345 UTC 9.5N 50.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[wxman57]

I agree that the chances of development may be 30% or greater, but I think it'll take longer than 48 hrs. I'd go with 5-10% within 48 hrs and 30-40% in the 72-96hr time frame. It's still battling significant shear today, and probably tomorrow as well. Rain and gusty winds for the islands regardless of development.

[KUEFC]

wxman57 what do you think it's chances are after the islands? Recurve?

[wxman57]

wxman57 what do you think it's chances are after the islands? Recurve?

I don't think it has a lot of options. Strong SW-WSW winds aloft all across the western to central Caribbean, Cuba and the Bahamas by early next week. It can't continue westward (and survive).

[KUEFC]

wxman57 what do you think it's chances are after the islands? Recurve?

I don't think it has a lot of options. Strong SW-WSW winds aloft all across the western to central Caribbean, Cuba and the Bahamas by early next week. It can't continue westward (and survive).

Thank you for the reply

[cycloneye]

First mission on Friday afternooon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 10 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR 12/1800Z AT 17.0N 61.0W.
BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 13/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[cycloneye]

12z Surface Analysis made by TAFB.

[Sanibel]

Weak rotation with convection more aligned to the shear than cyclogenesis. The Caribbean has been shredding this type of formation so far this year.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2012101018, , BEST, 0, 93N, 537W, 30, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis.

[brunota2003]

It better start gaining latitude, SA keeps filling up more and more of the floater screen.

[cycloneye]

It better start gaining latitude, SA keeps filling up more and more of the floater screen.

Look where the COC was around 11:30 AM EDT in the OSCAT pass.

[wxman57]

It's still very disorganized and just a wave.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING...AND REPORTS FROM BUOYS WELL NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER INDICATE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Gustywind]

First appareance as a special feature now.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 102353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 17N53W TO A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW AT 9N54W. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RANGING FROM 8N16N BETWEEN 47W-60W.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO AROUND THE WAVE IN THIS
AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-17N BETWEEN 44W-60W. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO
THE ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2012101100, , BEST, 0, 95N, 535W, 30, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[blp]

CIMMS 850 voticity is showing a much stronger vorticity now versus 12 hours ago.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=wvir&zoom=&time

The 18z GFS shows development starting in 12 hours.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfstropical850mbVortSLP012.gif

It looks like the vorticity seen earlier in the morning on Ascat will or has crashed into CA and weaken and may now allow the northern mid level vorticity to work to the surface. I still think the GFS is too fast with development and has a northerly bias.

[cycloneye]

Well,Joe Bastardi has his own peculiar forecasts and here is another tweet.

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 45/photo/1