ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Remains at 50%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Sanibel]

I guess the question is whether it will come together further north. Right now it is very weak.

[wxman57]

The "center" is still well west of the convection, close to 11.4N/58.4W. Very little rotation evident. Strong SW-W wind shear. Conditions become more favorable once it moves north of the eastern Caribbean this weekend. Probably has a better chance of strengthening once it passes the Caribbean and heads north and out to sea.

[colbroe]

4 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 12N58W 1006 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ATLC AND CARIBBEAN FORECAST LOW PRES.POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 15N61W 1004 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN PRIMARILY E SWELL.

This information taken from HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU OCT 11 2012

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N57W 11N58W 6N56W
IN NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM
9N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS TO THE EAST OF 64W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 64W ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N67W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.73...FOR GUADELOUPE 0.60...
AND 0.22 FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Gustywind]

11/1745 UTC 12.0N 58.3W TOO WEAK 98L
11/1145 UTC 11.4N 57.0W T1.0/1.0 98L

[Hurricane_Luis]

Latest Satellite Image

[Gustywind]

Latest Satellite Image and Forecast Track

http://imageshack.us/a/img854/7938/td16.png

http://imageshack.us/a/img854/9537/td16forcasttrack.png

Bad thread, maybe a mistake from you as we're discussing about 98L and not TD Sixteen

[wxman57]

Latest Satellite Image and Forecast Track

http://imageshack.us/a/img854/7938/td16.png

http://imageshack.us/a/img854/9537/td16forcasttrack.png

Can you re-post in the proper thread?

[Gustywind]

Given our daily newspaper Guadeloupe should deal with a very episode of rain stalling several days. Let's wait and see, if this scenario pan's out... Anyway, looks like maybe? a good way to ended up a bit the hot temperatures and the drought of September in some localities of the island.

WEATHER FORECAST. Bad time back tonight

franceantilles.fr 11.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.php

Martinique is already in yellow vigilance, Guadeloupe should be concerned as soon as this afternoon by the tropical wave and go yellow vigilance around 5PM. Bad weather could affect the entire island for several days.
The tropical wave that formed in the Atlantic, approach of the Antillean Arc. Martinique is already in yellow vigilance, Guadeloupe should be concerned as soon as this afternoon and go yellow vigilance around 5 PM. Heavy rains are expected in the course of the night, but the height of the phenomenon will concern us in mid-morning tomorrow and in the afternoon. The Department will be concerned with a generalized weather that may last for several days.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Latest Satellite Image and Forecast Track

http://imageshack.us/a/img854/7938/td16.png

http://imageshack.us/a/img854/9537/td16forcasttrack.png

Can you re-post in the proper thread?

I just deleted the 2 images of TD 16 and uploaded one of Invest 98L.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Visible satellite loops reveal a sharp increase in the tightness of the low-level center (located southeast of Barbados). Should get a Code Red at 8pm EDT.

[wxman57]

Barbados winds now SE at 20 kts, suggesting the wave axis is approaching 60W. No evidence of an LLC, and convection remains fairly far-removed from the wave axis due to persistent westerly shear.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Barbados winds now SE at 20 kts, suggesting the wave axis is approaching 60W. No evidence of an LLC, and convection remains fairly far-removed from the wave axis due to persistent westerly shear.

The low-level circulation may not be completed closed (It is ragged on the west side as evidenced by ASCAT), but it is definitely there.

[MGC]

Looks to me that a low level circulation is starting to take shape SE of Barbados....it still has a way to go and the shear is pretty strong so I don't expect any rapid intensification in the short term......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not a official forecast.

[cycloneye]

Barbados radar loop shows clearly the center.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... -radar.php

[cycloneye]

18z Surface Analysis.

[cycloneye]

Another tweet by Bastardi.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Strong disturbance east of Islands should develop and dump heavy rains on Puerto Rico on the weekend

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised at a CODE: RED at 8pm.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

DATA FROM SATELLITES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE BARBADOS
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.