ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Gustywind
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#241 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:41 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 141150
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

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#242 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:43 am

Hour by hour, Guadeloupe discover the first damages of Rafael :(. The situation is more worrying than predicted. Hearing the radio, another muslide has occured at Gourbeyre.
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#243 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:48 am

Tropical Storm Rafeal

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#244 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:49 am

14/1145 UTC 19.7N 63.7W T3.0/3.0 RAFAEL
14/0545 UTC 19.0N 62.9W T2.0/2.5 RAFAEL
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#245 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:32 am

It looks like the intensity will be bumped a little bit based on what recon has found so far.

Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated

Maximum Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:08:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:08:30Z
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#246 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:53 am

Probably 50 kt based on that data, since the SFMR appeared to be slightly rain-contaminated.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#247 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:59 am

That was it Crazy.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#248 Postby knotimpaired » Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:07 am

Sorry to hear that Gusty.

The Coast Guard have been flying over the island this morning trying to find the 3 still missing from the plane that went down south of the Virgin Islands. One woman was found after hours in the water.

Let's hope this is the end of the season.

So far all is calm here.
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#249 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:11 am

Tropical Storm Rafeal Advisory 8

Image

Tropical Storm Watch
Bermuda
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Disscussion

#250 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:32 am

cycloneye wrote:From the San Juan NWS this morning.

..FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SATURDAY. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANY BY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
LATEST SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATING VALUES
OVER 2.5 INCHES. ALL COMPUTER MODELS AGREED THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ACTIVE AS IT APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
WEEKEND. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER LOCALLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW DAYS.


Very interresting snippet from San Juan. But :eek: What, another one? Oh boy, let's focus on Rafael.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#251 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:37 am

knotimpaired wrote:Sorry to hear that Gusty.

The Coast Guard have been flying over the island this morning trying to find the 3 still missing from the plane that went down south of the Virgin Islands. One woman was found after hours in the water.

Let's hope this is the end of the season.

So far all is calm here.

Thanks to you Karen. Glad to see that the new is good. Yeah let's hope for that but we're maybe far away from that at the moment. Given the authorities Guadeloupe should stay under a red code till the end of the morning 1AM. After that, we will see if they back off to orange code or even lower. Anyway, another round of showers is expected today and maybe tommorow. Stay tuned. I will keep your informed if i've more infos. Looks like 2 people are missing in Guadeloupe.
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#252 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:38 am

Msbee what's up in your locality? What's the weather like in the Northern Leewards? Hope you're ok we will glad to see you. :)
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#253 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:41 am

Look at the Dvorak now with an eye-like feature.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#254 Postby knotimpaired » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:19 pm

I am sorry to hear that. We will hope for the best.

We still have nothing but the PR news still says we will get 3-5 inches and the VI up to 10.

For those interested our weatherhawk system can be found online at http://www.playacofi.net/weather

Mind you we are on the north coast, just 60 feet above sea level so if we do get something it will not represent our ridge.

Gustywind wrote:
knotimpaired wrote:Sorry to hear that Gusty.

The Coast Guard have been flying over the island this morning trying to find the 3 still missing from the plane that went down south of the Virgin Islands. One woman was found after hours in the water.

Let's hope this is the end of the season.

So far all is calm here.

Thanks to you Karen. Glad to see that the new is good. Yeah let's hope for that but we're maybe far away from that at the moment. Given the authorities Guadeloupe should stay under a red code till the end of the morning 1AM. After that, we will see if they back off to orange code or even lower. Anyway, another round of showers is expected today and maybe tommorow. Stay tuned. I will keep your informed if i've more infos. Looks like 2 people are missing in Guadeloupe.
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Re:

#255 Postby msbee » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:40 pm

Gustywind wrote:Msbee what's up in your locality? What's the weather like in the Northern Leewards? Hope you're ok we will glad to see you. :)


Hi Gusty
we're ok here. I posted in the observations thread.
so sorry to hear about the problems in Guadeloupe
we have had a lot of rain and high wind but I haven;t heard of any serous dmage luckily.
we're just a little waterlogged.

latest Met Office warning says "the country is under a Flash Flood Watch due to possible thunderstorms that can still be expected from the tail section of the system. The tropical storm warning has been discontinued.
Strong gusts of winds to near gale force can still be expected according to the Meteorological Department of Curacao (MDC).

Seas are moderate to rough at six to 10 feet; light to moderate periods of rainfall are still expected with a couple thunderstorms is still possible accumulating in amounts of one to three inches, therefore street flooding in low lying areas is still possible due to saturated grounds."
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Re: Re:

#256 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:51 pm

msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Msbee what's up in your locality? What's the weather like in the Northern Leewards? Hope you're ok we will glad to see you. :)


Hi Gusty
we're ok here. I posted in the observations thread.
so sorry to hear about the problems in Guadeloupe
we have had a lot of rain and high wind but I haven;t heard of any serous dmage luckily.
we're just a little waterlogged.

latest Met Office warning says "the country is under a Flash Flood Watch due to possible thunderstorms that can still be expected from the tail section of the system. The tropical storm warning has been discontinued.
Strong gusts of winds to near gale force can still be expected according to the Meteorological Department of Curacao (MDC).

Seas are moderate to rough at six to 10 feet; light to moderate periods of rainfall are still expected with a couple thunderstorms is still possible accumulating in amounts of one to three inches, therefore street flooding in low lying areas is still possible due to saturated grounds."

:) :sun: Glad to see that all is OK.
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#257 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:46 pm

Notice the eye feature that popped out a couple hours ago.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: RAFAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#258 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:20 pm

Must be a beautiful day in Hispaniola.
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#259 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:28 pm

looks like the eye has disappeared and the mid-level rotation separated a bit--are we seeing the season's usual 60-65mph decoupling now?
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Re:

#260 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:34 pm

Hammy wrote:looks like the eye has disappeared and the mid-level rotation separated a bit--are we seeing the season's usual 60-65mph decoupling now?

It may not have been a true eye...and I don't think we are seeing decoupling here.
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