ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFan]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2012101100, , BEST, 0, 95N, 535W, 30, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

It is a little more to the NE than earlier.What is the reason for that?I don't think it has moved to the NE,Right?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2012101100, , BEST, 0, 95N, 535W, 30, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

It is a little more to the NE than earlier.What is the reason for that?I don't think it has moved to the NE,Right?

They fixed the prior positions on best track and it has slowed in movement. (No NE movement) This more slower speed may mean that it may start to gain latitud and move more NW but is not clear yet that is occuring. I would wait until Thursday to see the visible images and see where the LLC is consolidating.

[blp]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2012101100, , BEST, 0, 95N, 535W, 30, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

It is a little more to the NE than earlier.What is the reason for that?I don't think it has moved to the NE,Right?

You are right, It's not moving NE, what is happening is that the mid level vorticity which has up until now been trailing a low level vorticity is now becoming more dominant and thus the adjustment more NE. The GFS has been predicting this and it appears to be occurring but I still think it ramps it up too quickly though.

[floridasun78]

http://tinyurl.com/9ovwt4k but 98l not expect move that far west

[cycloneye]

00z Surface Analysis.

[fci]

Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on October 11, 2012

A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is located about 425 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
Thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized...and satellite data indicate winds to near tropical storm force are
occurring in some of the heavier squalls well to the north of circulation center.
Some further development of this large disturbance will be possible over the next couple of days as
environmental conditions become slightly more conducive.
This system has a medium chance...50 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of development...strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.

[caribepr]

Well,Joe Bastardi has his own peculiar forecasts and here is another tweet.

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 45/photo/1

Let's keep it in the peculiar category!

[cycloneye]

Crownweather's discussion of 98L.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 98L Located Just East Of The Windward Islands & Barbados:
Of more concern is Invest 98L which is located about 400 miles to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is fairly robust and continues to become better organized. Additionally, tropical storm force winds are occurring on the north side of the circulation and this system has a fairly good chance of becoming a tropical storm either today or at the latest on Friday. So, the Canadian model may have been on something a couple of days ago and I should have given it more weight.

Invest 98L is expected to track very near Barbados later this afternoon or this evening and then across the Windward Islands late tonight into Friday morning. Residents and vacationers on Barbados and in the Windward Islands should be prepared for tropical storm conditions with wind gusts to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and very rough seas from this afternoon through tonight and into Friday. Since this is a pretty large system, much of the Leeward Islands will also be affected by strong winds of up to 40 to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and very rough seas from this afternoon right into Friday.

Once Invest 98L is in the eastern Caribbean on Friday it is expected to turn sharply northwestward and track across while intensifying to a moderate to strong tropical storm. I think a track right over Puerto Rico seems plausible on Saturday with tropical storm conditions likely across Puerto Rico and the US/British Virgin Island on Friday night through Saturday.

Once this system is past Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands it is forecast to turn north and north-northeastward and potentially intensify into a hurricane and possibly impact Bermuda right around Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

98L starting to consolidate this morning. Saved image.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 50%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE
LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of 98L by Dr Jeff Masters.

A tropical wave located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. The disturbance has a modest amount of spin and a large amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops and Barbados radar. The thunderstorms have shown more organization this morning, but there is no obvious surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. This morning's ASCAT pass showed top winds of 30 - 35 mph near 15°N, 55°W. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C. With wind shear expected to diminish on Saturday to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, 98L may be able to develop into a tropical cyclone this weekend. The disturbance has a high amount of support for development among the reliable computer models. The NOGAPS model predicts 98L will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Sunday, about 400 hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. The GFS model predicts 98L will develop on Saturday, when the center will be very close to the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The ECMWF model predicts a more westerly path for 98L into the southeast Bahama Islands, with development delayed until Monday. The models are unified in forecasting that 98L will turn to the north by Monday and be drawn into a trough of low pressure. It does not appear that 98L will be a threat to the U.S. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit 98L on Friday afternoon.

[wxman57]

We're looking at a visible loop and we think that if there is any weak circulation then it's out west of the convection near 11N/58.5W, as indicated by the crosshairs on the image below. Strong SW-W wind shear is pushing the convection east of the center. Fair chance of becoming a TD within 48 hrs but more likely this weekend. I still think it'll cut across the NE Caribbean and pass close to PR rather than turn as sharply north as the models continue to indicate. No threat to Florida or the East U.S. Coast with the strong westerly jet stream across the area.

[cycloneye]

Barbados radar.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados ... -radar.php

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 1008, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

wxman57 very close to your position.

[cycloneye]

12z Surface Analysis. It looks like is forecast to pass South of Barbados.

[colbroe]

Barbadians can expect some heavy rains over the weekend.

A special weather bulletin issued this morning around 11 a.m. by the Barbados Meteorological Services stated there is a tropical wave approaching and it is 300 miles to the east of Barbados.

“Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the past twelve (12) hours, and some gradual development is possible as the system moves over the Eastern Caribbean tomorrow,” it stated.

Met officials stated that the wave has already started to affect Barbados and will continue to spread cloudiness and occasional showers across the island over the next few days.

“Some pockets of moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds are likely to occur during the weekend,” stated the bulletin.

Small craft operators and sea bathers have been urged to exercise caution.

The department will continue to monitor the progress of this system. (CM/PR)

[Gustywind]

11/1145 UTC 11.4N 57.0W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/0545 UTC 9.5N 53.3W TOO WEAK 98L

[colbroe]

Based on invest 98L having been given T numbers seems that it is on the way to becoming a TD hoping this happens after it passes the islands .

[caribepr]

Based on invest 98L having been given T numbers seems that it is on the way to becoming a TD hoping this happens after it passes the islands .

Exactly. We need rain but we don't need...well, you know.

[Gustywind]

You're right my friends, rain and no more. Anyway, we should continue to monitor extremely carefully the situation in case of...