ATL: RAFAEL - Models

[cycloneye]

00z Models.

SHIP is more bullish.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 100215
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0215 UTC WED OCT 10 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121010 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121010  0000   121010  1200   121011  0000   121011  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.9N  50.4W    9.5N  52.5W   10.3N  54.6W   10.9N  56.9W
BAMD     8.9N  50.4W    9.7N  52.2W   11.0N  53.7W   12.6N  55.2W
BAMM     8.9N  50.4W    9.6N  52.4W   10.7N  53.9W   11.9N  55.4W
LBAR     8.9N  50.4W    9.9N  53.1W   11.0N  55.5W   12.4N  57.8W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          39KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121012  0000   121013  0000   121014  0000   121015  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.6N  59.1W   12.8N  62.8W   13.7N  65.2W   14.2N  67.3W
BAMD    14.5N  56.7W   18.1N  59.6W   20.6N  62.0W   22.9N  63.8W
BAMM    13.2N  56.8W   15.8N  59.2W   18.1N  61.2W   19.7N  62.7W
LBAR    14.1N  59.7W   17.6N  62.0W   21.1N  61.8W   22.6N  61.1W
SHIP        40KTS          36KTS          42KTS          47KTS
DSHP        40KTS          36KTS          42KTS          47KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.9N LONCUR =  50.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =   8.2N LONM12 =  46.5W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 =  24KT
LATM24 =   8.7N LONM24 =  41.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[floridasun78]

ship dont have it as hurr

[floridasun78]

what i see on few models runs this going out to sea

[floridasun78]

what i see on few models runs this going out to sea after pass leedwards islands

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[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a scenario for PR/VI and Leewards.

[floridasun78]

12z GFS has a scenario for PR/VI and Leewards.

http://oi49.tinypic.com/35iztdc.jpg

after going out to sea hope not bad over islands

[cycloneye]

12z CMC animation. Look how it deepens north of Hispanola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HurricaneFan]

Is that another one behind it on the 12z GFS?

[floridasun78]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation have high build later to north of 98l http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation high building faster over 98l

[cycloneye]

[chaser1]

12z GFS has a scenario for PR/VI and Leewards.

http://oi49.tinypic.com/35iztdc.jpg

after going out to sea hope not bad over islands

Yep, in fact I tend to think that this will end up being a larger and more prolonged squally rain event for PR/VI, Leewards, & Windwards than presently anticipated. I am getting the sense that as front surge of 98L continues at a fast clip to the west, that perhaps the eventual center to eventually be classified will perhaps originate from a secondary wave that I thought I saw yesterday seemed to have a significant amount of rotation with. All in all , this would simply mean that 98L would appear to have a pretty significant sized envelope and this large moist system may well really dump copious amounts of rain potentially having significant impacts to areas with mountainous terrain.

As previously mentioned, shear, size of sytems, etc would seem to mitigate any rapid development, so I'd guess intensification might occur somewhere between 48-72 hours. If a mid level COC begins to develop at a little higher latitude (possibly closer to 13N-15N), than I could see a track near or just east of P.R., & WNW thereafter for the near term - but I don't see a center forming quite that far north. Despite the orientation of the evolving 594 - 500mb ridge to its north, I still cannot quite see why general easterly bridging would not continue at least up to 102 hours. All I see is "double-barrel" ridges from the Gulf to at least 40W. Looking at today's GFS 12Z 500mb run, at 102 hours the 582 line is pretty much at a point close to 40 North with the strong short wave long departed. In ther near term, I don't really see reason nor appearant motion to justify a significant turn more Northwestward. I would think a center would evolve closer to 10N and other than shear causing its formation to maybe jump a bit more northward, would imagine a 290 degree motion perhaps, but not more northerly than that.

I really am not sure I am buying into the 120 hr. deep trough moving across to E. Conus. Seems a bit fast with the flow looking a bit more zonal and no immediate appearant energy dropping into it, to cause this trough to seem so far south (thus erroding the ridge). Will be interesting to compare today's EURO 12Z 500mb run with the GFS to see how much they agree or diverge with this feature at the 120hr-160hr. time frame.

I am sticking to my guns on one thing for the moment. Whether T.D., Storm, or Hurricane, I think it moves near or south of P.R.

[chaser1]

[http://oi50.tinypic.com/vsm7f7.jpg

Just saw the 18Z model runs. They are fairly clustered. I'd be very wary to buy into them however. Until a fairly co-located COC has formed, this remains an open wave/area of low pressure that is yet to evolve (AND appearing to move west still). I think we will see a westward shift by tomm. a.m. In addition, it would almost appear that the initial motion for these models might have a significant "poleward" bias, which at minimum would seem to discredit their respective short term forecasts.

[wxman57]

I'd agree on a track somewhere between the BAMM/BAMS - generally toward PR or the eastern DR. Still don't think development is going to happen in the eastern Caribbean. If it DOES develop, it'll probably be once it moves north of 20N.

[CrazyC83]

At what latitude did 1954's Hurricane Hazel begin at? That is about the only analog I can sense, given the time of year.

[summersquall]

At what latitude did 1954's Hurricane Hazel begin at? That is about the only analog I can sense, given the time of year.

'In early October 1954, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa and was spotted on October 5, roughly 80 km (50 mi) east of the island of Grenada."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

[Fego]

12Z ECM far to the left versus GFS solution.

[Frank2]

I'm starting to get a headache (lol) - not one but two systems - ugh...

Still, the environment is only very marginal, so that's good...

Frank

[Caribwxgirl]

Any more recent models? Spaghetti or otherwise.

[wxman57]

At what latitude did 1954's Hurricane Hazel begin at? That is about the only analog I can sense, given the time of year.

The weather pattern along the East U.S. Coast this October is not favorable for a TC impact. The jet stream is dipping well south and strong westerly winds aloft prevail along the U.S. East Coast. No chance of anything coming that way.