EPAC: PAUL - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:53 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

...PAUL HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...NEARING CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEST IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AND THE
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 MPH...60 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...84 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#42 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:13 pm

Paul almost a cat 3 on 18z Best Track.

EP, 16, 2012101518, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1144W, 95, 968, HU

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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#43 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:57 pm

Where are all the hurricane die hard fans? This thing just blew up into a Cat.3 hurricane in less than 6 hours!
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#44 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:59 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#45 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:51 pm

Paul becomes a Major Hurricane


HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

PAUL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TODAY. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND NOW CONSISTS OF A
SYMMETRIC AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE HAS ALSO
WARMED CONSIDERABLY WHILE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED
TO 5.5 AND LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 6.1. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105
KT...MAKING PAUL THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. PAUL SHOULD BE STEERED
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CARRY PAUL
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BEND NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE THAT PAUL HAS UNDERGONE TODAY
SHOULD SOON COME TO A CLOSE. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO
MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY DECREASE. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...BUT THE RATE OF
WEAKENING SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE
SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY HIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
INCREASED AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT
IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AFTER 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND
RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION
OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.4N 114.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Re:

#46 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/3703/paulcat3.jpg


Sorry, Iv've been busy with school. But wow, look at PAul. Should threaten a very sparsely populated area though.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Took off the img tags
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#47 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:19 pm

Hurricane Paul

120 mph Catagory 3

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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#48 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:34 pm

It's moving NNE. SSTs are well above average along the forecasted track. The blue line on this map is the current 26°C boundary.

Image

Image

NHC wrote:ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHIFTING EASTWARD.
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#49 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:01 pm

Way to go, Paul! I'm been out all day, so I missed it :(
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#50 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:35 pm

Paul could be more powerful since it's a tiny storm. Looks somewhat annular too.
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#51 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:13 pm

Absolutley no disrespect to the NHC, but all season long they've been forecasting for Pacific systems to weaken once they reach cooler waters - but those systems refuse to respond. If i'm living in the Baja right now I would pay very close attention to Paul.
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:36 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

...PAUL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 113.8W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO EL POCITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAT TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

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Re: Re:

#53 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:42 pm

Hurricane Paul is a dead-ringer to Hurricane Bud from this year, its totally uncanny. Every aspect of Bud is what Paul is living through right before us. Its size, track, eye, evolution, model forecasts, forecast errors, pre-genesis; you name it. Only thing left is the recon flight. As the SHIPS RI Index once again predicted, Paul bombed out. Even with the outflow to the north being affected by wind shear now just this afternoon so good work.

Yellow Evan wrote:Sorry, Iv've been busy with school. But wow, look at PAul. Should threaten a very sparsely populated area though.

Don't you say that about every Epac hurricane though? Just Paul threatening someone (even 1 person on one of those islands) is something. Paul already proved it wasn't going to be a non-starter.

somethingfunny wrote:It's moving NNE. SSTs are well above average along the forecasted track. The blue line on this map is the current 26°C boundary.

Good point, this could really turn out differently than what the NHC is forecasting. If it makes a much more eastward shift and the wind shear is not as high as they are expecting, Baja could be looking at a hurricane (more than 65 knots) on their doorstep. BTW, this brings me to another point, notice how there is usually magic wind shear that pops up that was not expected/forecast but every time the NHC or some other official agency forecasts the wind shear, it always comes and is sometimes stronger?

galaxy401 wrote:Paul could be more powerful since it's a tiny storm. Looks somewhat annular too.

It has the annular eye but that's all. Its strange because when you look at a zoomed image of him he appears to be large but then zoom out and he is tiny...most small hurricanes don't have that kind of large eye like that. This is unique.
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Re:

#54 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Absolutley no disrespect to the NHC, but all season long they've been forecasting for Pacific systems to weaken once they reach cooler waters - but those systems refuse to respond. If i'm living in the Baja right now I would pay very close attention to Paul.


Lane and Miriam weakened quickly though.
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:57 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

...PAUL WEAKENS TO CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH...
...ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 113.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO EL POCITO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH


HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING EARLIER TODAY...PAUL ALREADY APPEARS TO
BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE COLD RING
SURROUNDING THE CENTER HAS WARMED...AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
UNANIMOUSLY T5.0/5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE FINAL-T NUMBERS
FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAVE FALLEN TO T5.3. BASED ON THESE
NUMBERS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT.

PAUL HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/15
KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING PAUL TO MOVE FASTER
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...LEAVING PAUL IN A COL REGION
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 24
AND 48 HOURS...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW PAUL MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HWRF IS THE
OUTLIER AMONG THE PACK BY SHOWING PAUL MOVING INLAND ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...INSTEAD OF SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS BUT IS NOT AS FAR EAST AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE HWRF.

THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS PAUL OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS UP UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TO ABOUT 30 KT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD TAKE A SIGNIFICANT TOLL ON THE
HURRICANE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT INTENSITY PAUL WILL
HAVE WHEN IT REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT ENOUGH OF THE
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM...SUGGEST THAT PAUL COULD
STILL BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS
PAUL MAKING LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE BUT THEN SHOWS RAPID
WEAKENING ON DAYS 2 AND 3. PAUL SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...OR
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED...BY 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 20.0N 113.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.2N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 26.7N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 28.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#56 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:00 pm

Interesting little storm, the EPAC has tended to have less storms than the Atlantic in recent years but a higher proportion of major hurricanes.
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#57 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:11 am

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Restrengthens. Looks like a MH with that round clear eye. Waiting on deep convection to wrap around it completely.
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#58 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 16, 2012 4:02 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160849
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

ALTHOUGH THE EYE OF PAUL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES...CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED AND
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 95 KT.

PAUL IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/17...STEERED BY
THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A TURN
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF
TO THE WEST OF PAUL. AFTER THAT...A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
TAKES THE CENTER OF PAUL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
PENNISULA LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS.

MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TILTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR PICKS UP. THIS INCREASE
IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR...SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO
WEAKEN SOME ON ITS APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...PAUL
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER
BAJA. AFTER INTERACTING WITH LAND...ABRUPT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AND PAUL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IT LIES AT THE HIGH
END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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#59 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 16, 2012 4:03 am

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160852
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PAUL MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER SOUTHWESTERN BAJA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A TURN TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS
IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#60 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 7:08 am

Special Advisory issued




BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PAUL MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 112.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST. PAUL HAS
ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21
MPH...33 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARRIVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN



HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

THIS IS SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
PAUL...WHICH IS MOVING FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS THAT LANDFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1200Z 22.9N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 25.8N 111.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN


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