EPAC: PAUL - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#61 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:08 am

interesting that we had 3 major storms (+100 knots) occur in three different basins. finally the tropics are reawakening ... :D
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#62 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:44 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...HURRICANE PAUL MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A HURRY...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 112.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL MOVING OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THAT AS PAUL MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
THERE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN
SPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO
AND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...
PAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A
WEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
HURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:26 am

If Paul went the long way up the Gulf of California, could it maintain its intensity?
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Re:

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:04 am

CrazyC83 wrote:If Paul went the long way up the Gulf of California, could it maintain its intensity?


Too big IMO to do that.
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#65 Postby Weatherguy173 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:32 pm

why does the track have a radical turn west? It was already predicted to turn west but it hasn't. What's the reason for that? :?:
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#66 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:50 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...WEAKENING HURRICANE PAUL APPROACHING CABO SAN LAZARO ON THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 112.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. PAUL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...28 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...PAUL WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
A FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK
SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
PAUL MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION NEAR PUERTO
CORTES RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 41 MPH...66 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA VERY SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#67 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:34 pm

Umm how come we had no recon for this storm?
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Re:

#68 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:39 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Umm how come we had no recon for this storm?


There was going to be one mission for today but as Paul veered to the right and makes landfall in Baja,they canceled it.
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Re: Re:

#69 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Umm how come we had no recon for this storm?


There was going to be one mission for today but as Paul veered to the right and makes landfall in Baja,they canceled it.

I guess we have a lot to learn in regards of Hurricane tracks. Because if the Baja had a huge population this would have been reallly bad.
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Hurricane

#70 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...HURRICANE PAUL SLOWS DOWN AND IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY.

PAUL IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN AUTOMATIC STATION IN PUERTO CORTES
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H WITH A GUST OF
71 MPH...114 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN ALSO IMPACTING THE AREA SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

STRONG WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PAUL...AND THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. THESE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
AND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...AND PAUL WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

AFTER A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ONLY 13
KNOTS. THIS SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS ACTUALLY
ANTICIPATED BY MODELS AND INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PAUL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AROUND A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP
PAUL OR ITS REMANTS OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

GIVEN THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED AND BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 24.7N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 112.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF SANTA FE AND SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST. PAUL
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

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#72 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:15 pm

Paul weakening fast.
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#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:18 pm

Paul going down and out in a heart beat over MB.
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH PAUL...AND THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...PAUL IS STILL PRODUCING SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CLOSER TO ITS CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN NO
GROUND TRUTH TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF PAUL...AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE SLOW TO COME DOWN DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT
IS ESTIMATED BY ASSUMING A FAIRLY QUICK RATE OF DECAY.

PAUL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH A MOTION OF 350/10 KT. THE
TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A
CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE NEW SUITE OF TRACK
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER OF PAUL JUST GRAZING THE COAST AND BARELY
MOVING INLAND...IF AT ALL...SO THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PAUL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
DECAY SHOWN BY THE DSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND SHOWS PAUL WEAKENING
BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THE REMNANT
LOW SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA BY 48 HOURS AS ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 25.6N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 28.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 29.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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#75 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:30 pm

Decapitation, for lack of a better word.

Infrared satellite shows nothing left.
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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:25 am

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRIPPED AWAY DUE TO 30-35 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A ROBUST LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL VORTEX STILL EXISTS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THAT PAUL WAS NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST 24 HOURS AGO.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ADT DATA-T
VALUES...AND MICROWAVE WIND DATA. WIND RADII IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE ARE BASED ON A 17/0427Z ASCAT PARTIAL OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/11 KT ARE BASED
PRIMARILY ON RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PAUL SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CROSSING THE BAJA
SPUR IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM MOVES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGER
LOW-LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 N MI SOUTHWEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. BOTH PAUL AND THE LARGER CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PAUL DISSIPATING OR
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 24C SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PAUL COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND TOTALLY DISSIPATE IN
24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TRENDS OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 26.4N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 27.5N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 28.6N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 29.8N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#77 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:27 am

Tropical Deppression Paul

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#78 Postby Chickenzilla » Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:09 am

Paul doesn't look like a tropical cyclone anymore. He'll probably be declared post-tropical in next advisory.

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Re: EPAC: PAUL - Post-Tropical

#79 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:38 pm

Last advisory written

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

PAUL HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...
WITH ONLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT
PAUL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. A RECENT SHIP REPORT AND
ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT 25-30 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
WHILE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY OCCUR...PAUL GENERALLY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36
HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 27.7N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0600Z 28.7N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 29.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#80 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:33 am

Goodbye PAul
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