WPAC: MARIA - Tropical Storm

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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:38 am

Image

it looks like we have ourselves a typhoon as maria showed a ragged eye for the past few hours...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 979.7mb/ 65.0kt





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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:26 am

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 27.6N 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 29.6N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.5N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.6N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.1N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 142.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z
AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A POSSIBLE WEAK, DEVELOPING EYE. THIS
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 161033Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE; HOWEVER, THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
TO THE NORTH. BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 23W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. THE UKMO
TRACKER IS DISCOUNTED SINCE IT POORLY INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM AS TOO
WEAK AND CONSEQUENTLY WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION AND THEN JUMPS THE
CENTER NORTHWARD ERRONEOUSLY INTO A MIDLATITUDE LOW. AFTER TAU 36
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO TWO CLUSTERS WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN
DEPICTING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK WHILE JGSM, WBAR, ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
A MORE REALISTIC EASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE
EASTWARD TRACK AND IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET NOGAPS AND GFDN. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72; HOWEVER, SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 96, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO REGENERATION AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS SITUATION WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY JTWC.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:02 pm

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 31.8N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.8N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 32.5N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 32.6N 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 32.9N 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 151.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND
190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRALIZED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST SIX HOUR, BUT IS BEING
IMPACTED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (20 TO 30 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WHICH IS SUPPORTING
THE STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND RJTD INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND HAS STARTED IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
STR, WITH DECREASING SSTS, PERSISTENT HIGH VWS, AND DEFORMATION OF
THE LLCC, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. FULL DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED AROUND TAU 36. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WBAR BEING THE SOUTHERN MOST OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN KEPT FASTER AND NORTHWARD OF THE CONSENSUS
BASED ON WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
FAIR AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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#24 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:24 pm

i honestly believe the agencies are underestimating Maria... sure, the convection has been fragmented and lackluster, but the microwave images show otherwise... if this were in the Atlantic, i'm guessing the NHC might have already upgraded this to a typhoon, but that's just my opinion...:)

Image

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Re:

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:46 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:i honestly believe the agencies are underestimating Maria... sure, the convection has been fragmented and lackluster, but the microwave images show otherwise... if this were in the Atlantic, i'm guessing the NHC might have already upgraded this to a typhoon, but that's just my opinion...:)



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



hopefully they upgrade maria in postseason...dvorak and UW-CIMSS estimates clearly showing a typhoon plus an eye on satellite imagery...

comparing maria with paul and richard, maria looks to have peaked at around 85 knots...
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:14 am

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 32.0N 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0N 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 31.7N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 31.5N 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 155.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W
(PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE EAST,
FULLY EXPOSING A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS
EVIDENCED ON A 181053Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 180530Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS MARIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
STR. WITH DECREASING SSTS, PERSISTENT HIGH VWS, AND DEFORMATION OF
THE LLCC, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 24. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SPREADING AFTERWARDS AS MOST OF
THE MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX DUE TO CYCLOLYSIS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN
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